Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alexander Grea]

Didn't you say yesterday that if we closed above $240 it would be great for the continued climb into the week? Sorry if I misremember. Perhaps this $240 point is actually pretty meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

Correct. Closing above 240 was a great setup to continue the bounce to 260 by the end of the week. The fact that we can't bounce from 240 is troublesome. Technically 10-15% bounce should not be asked too much considering the decline we had.

 

[Tenable]

Pretty crazy that we're approaching all-time high short interest with so many catalysts on the one year front (Pick up reveal, Giga 3 operational, FSD feature complete, probably additional S/X refresh-interior) and initial production trials of Model Y, Semi, and Roadster at this time next year. There's sooooo much stuff coming in the next year. Shorts are basing their entire basis on one bad quarter which was mostly bad because of production stalls and battery cell shortages.......

Pickup reveal won’t move the stock. Announcements and reveals are consistently shrugged off by the market now days. Giga 3, fsd, MY, etc. All of it is in I’ll believe it when I see it mode with me market. At this point none of that would stress me if I were short. Even if something were to materialize, it won’t happen overnight. Shorts will have a longish lead time to cover if they seem something they don’t like. What would be nice, is if they announced a product followed by “available next month!” Though perhaps ill advised with the necessary buyer lead time to plan a vehicle purchase.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Barron's - 47 minutes ago: Tesla’s Earnings Were Even Worse Than They Looked, Analyst Says

Sacconaghi is the analyst whose conference call question a year ago was called "boring bonehead" by Elon.

Interesting. They’re “even worse” because there were non-ZEV credits; likely from the deal with FCA. I’m not sure I buy his point, though. That deal appears to be a long-term one that’ll continue to add to margins for quite a while. So long as they’re getting the money, it doesn’t really matter where it comes from. There’s no brownie points for not using the tools available.

 

[Zaxxon]

Cathie Wood is sharp as they come on this with four analysts from diverse experiences combining to make smart bets.

Ark Invest's Cathie Wood defends her Tesla to $4,000 call

This was a great segment. Far more rational than most CNBC Tesla-related segments.

Tesla Looks to Regain Its Luster in Solar Energy by Slashing Prices

"The company plans to announce on Tuesday that it has started selling solar panels and related equipment for up to 38 percent less than the national average price by standardizing systems and requiring customers to order them online. Tesla executives said these changes should put to rest concerns that the company, better known for its luxury electric cars, has neglected its residential solar business."

Interesting that they mention $2/W. I'm currently going through the quoting process to add additional panels to my roof. Tesla's website guesstimate is $2.5/W ($10k for 4 kW), so I wonder if this is pre-drop, or if the article is incorrect or unclear. I have been price-sensitive because these additional panels will be on non-ideal roof faces (the ideal ones are already covered with panels!), but I can tell you that if they come back at $2/W all-in, I'm in.

Interestingly, Tesla does not seem to have figured out how to integrate a new system with an existing one. I understand that they don't want to touch my existing system for liability reasons (they didn't install it), but it's outright-owned by me and I'd really like the Tesla app to report my 'full' system production. They are looking into that aspect.

I bought a lot (for me) more shares yesterday morning @ $238. This fire sale be crazy. It does not appear that my buy was the start of a rally just yet, though.

 

[anthonyj]

Pickup reveal won’t move the stock. Announcements and reveals are consistently shrugged off by the market now days. Giga 3, fsd, MY, etc. All of it is in I’ll believe it when I see it mode with me market. At this point none of that would stress me if I were short. Even if something were to materialize, it won’t happen overnight. Shorts will have a longish lead time to cover if they seem something they don’t like. What would be nice, is if they announced a product followed by “available next month!” Though perhaps ill advised with the necessary buyer lead time to plan a vehicle purchase.

The main short thesis is running out of cash and bankruptcy. If Elon and Tesla can increase cash by a couple billion then a lot of shorts will capitulate. Shorts are making a short term bet that bankruptcy is near, which is why they have such high conviction to short at the lows

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Market Action:

Relentless selling pressure against the recovering macros. Hoped that the bounce after a week as bad as last week would take us to 260 by the end of this week.

If we close below 240 then might get ugly again. Just need to hope that InisdeEV numbers are coming out soon and capital raise is around the corner.

Looking at the chart, looks to me like someone keeps dumping close to 100k shares at a time.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Just ordered my solar panels online. 5 mins process but I have to go home to take some pictures and upload. Price seems 20% cheaper from what was quoted 2 months back. Although, it is $2.8/w, not $2. Maybe higher due to my location (NJ is expensive in labor cost).

For reference the previous quote was what Tesla said was a discounted quote so I assume the 38% reduction is compared to the original solar price.

Tesla just quietly turned the corner back toward energy dominance. I put in my PA address and it returned 4/8/12/16kW options....all at $2.50/Watt fully installed.

Having no massive sales cost to pay and their own panel supply means Tesla profits more on these installs than the rest of the market installing at $3.15/W.

This is only step 1, but a HUGE corner has been turned. If Vivint/Sunrun follow they'll need to build a new sales model, if they don't they're out of business. I'm betting on the latter, no one has the guts to stand up to their sales orgs. Let's hope we can buy Sunrun on the cheap 2 years from now.

 

[Boomer19]

Very positive piece and video with hedge fund CEO Chamath Palihapitiya on CNBC earlier today on Tesla. Refreshing change from their typical guests. Was surprised they put this online.

EDIT: While I watched it live, I assumed the video also contained hit clearheaded stance on why he's supportive of Tesla/Musk. They did not air that segment now that I watched the online (short) segment. Sad. Sorry for the false alarm on the video, but the text in the article was (mostly) included.

Chamath Palihapitiya on short seller Jim Chanos: 'He makes money once a decade'

 

[Cherry Wine]

Looking at the chart, looks to me like someone keeps dumping close to 100k shares at a time.

Meanwhile, $15.6M in block trade buys were executed today, and no block trade sales were executed.

 

[Tenable]

Correct. Closing above 240 was a great setup to continue the bounce to 260 by the end of the week. The fact that we can't bounce from 240 is troublesome. Technically 10-15% bounce should not be asked too much considering the decline we had.

How are you seeing this? 240 is meaningless to my eyes, it needs to close and hold above 244, ideally above 246.70.

 

[MartinAustin]

Wow I got to the top!

I have been on a road trip the last 2 weeks and gotten up to 1,000 posts behind!

I think tomorrow's InsideEVs estimates will be good.

 

[DurandalAI]

Tesla just quietly turned the corner back toward energy dominance. I put in my PA address and it returned 4/8/12/16kW options....all at $2.50/Watt fully installed.

Having no massive sales cost to pay and their own panel supply means Tesla profits more on these installs than the rest of the market installing at $3.15/W.

This is only step 1, but a HUGE corner has been turned. If Vivint/Sunrun follow they'll need to build a new sales model, if they don't they're out of business. I'm betting on the latter, no one has the guts to stand up to their sales orgs. Let's hope we can buy Sunrun on the cheap 2 years from now.

$2.50/watt installed on a residential roof is a good price. If I wasn't planning on moving within a year, I would certainly be ordering today!

 

[Doggydogworld]

Interesting. They’re “even worse” because there were non-ZEV credits; likely from the deal with FCA.

140m from FCA was deferred, to be recognized over 8-12 quarters. If they recognized any in Q1 it probably would have been small, e.g. 10-15m.

Non-ZEV tends to track US car deliveries, but was below trend in Q4 and well above trend in Q1. Might be a year-end processing delay that moved some non-ZEV recognition from Q4 into Q1. It could also mean non-ZEV credits are much more valuable in 2019 for some reason. That'd really help Tesla.

The main short thesis is running out of cash and bankruptcy.

The main short thesis is valuation. The TSLAQ crowd is just noise.

 

[Pras]

Tesla just quietly turned the corner back toward energy dominance. I put in my PA address and it returned 4/8/12/16kW options....all at $2.50/Watt fully installed.

Having no massive sales cost to pay and their own panel supply means Tesla profits more on these installs than the rest of the market installing at $3.15/W.

This is only step 1, but a HUGE corner has been turned. If Vivint/Sunrun follow they'll need to build a new sales model, if they don't they're out of business. I'm betting on the latter, no one has the guts to stand up to their sales orgs. Let's hope we can buy Sunrun on the cheap 2 years from now.

Yes, that is right PA is cheaper than NJ, lucky you!! All the natural gas and now cheap solar.

I am guessing that the $2/w is after federal tax incentive price. For me the that comes exactly to $1.995/w.

 

[Zaxxon]

Yes, that is right PA is cheaper than NJ, lucky you!! All the natural gas and now cheap solar.

I am guessing that the $2/w is after federal tax incentive price. For me the that comes exactly to $1.995/w.

Here in CO it seems to be $2.50/W before incentives, so $1.75/W after.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Remember that it will flip just by running onto a curb. I can't see safety-conscious Elon building a car like that.

Lol

It’s actually been a great little car. 5 years, no appreciable range loss, never been back to Mercedes. Solid little car. Next year we are trading it off for a Leaf Eplus or a model 3 (if Elon gets the Chademo or CCS adapter going).

 

[Zaxxon]

Full Chamath Palihapitiya CNBC interview.

 

[Freder Reeve]

picked up 2 more at 239, 1 at 238, and will get 2 more if we hit 237. small time, but gotta do my part.

 

[Don TLR]

Chamath Palihapitiya on short seller Jim Chanos: 'He makes money once a decade'

Now this is a smart guy who gets the big picture

“Great for Jim Chanos. Fantastic as a hedge... but the reality is being long equities makes sense; being long innovation makes sense. Betting against entrepreneurs who are changing the world has never been a profitable endeavor. Why start now?” he added.

Could he be the money guy for Elon??

 

[KSilver2000]

I am guessing that the $2/w is after federal tax incentive price. For me the that comes exactly to $1.995/w.

Definitely $2/w AFTER tax credits, hah.
I don’t know the expense structure, but it doesn’t take anything to know even Tesla with their integration cannot do $2/w cash price without taking major losses. That would be crazy.