“Cyborg chess”:
(This is from an article published in 2015, so I'm not sure if cyborgs still beat pure AI.)
I'm a currently a bit agnostic about whether full autonomy is possible with current technology. The most hopeful sign right now is probably Waymo doing driverless rides. But so far they haven't publicly released any rigorous data on safety.
So, what if full autonomy is off the table for the foreseeable future? I think there's still a big potential for Level 2 systems like Autopilot, Supercruise, and the stuff from Nvidia and Mobileye to evolve into something that handles city driving, as well as highways. So, the thing that Elon is envisioning when he talks about “feature complete” FSD. It can drive anywhere, but it needs constant human supervision and occasional human interventions.
This seems like 10x more achievable to me than full autonomy, so we might end up in a situation where “cyborg driving” becomes the norm for many years.
If this happens, a key part of making “cyborg driving” good is the human-machine interface. What does the machine communicate to the human? What does the human communicate to the machine? How does the human take control? Can they adjust things like speed without taking full control?
The thing I worry about most is if the machine is too good, people might get complacent and mentally check out. That means driver monitoring will be important. A steering wheel sensor is one tool for that. Why not also add a driver monitoring camera? You can add infrared light to see the driver's face at night. You use deep learning to assess whether the driver is drunk, drowsy, or distracted.
If driver monitoring is implemented well and it works, I think there is the potential for cyborg driving to increase safety and to make driving more enjoyable and less stressful by reducing cognitive load. It's not as economically disruptive as full autonomy, but it's still pretty good.
The exact same things that benefit Tesla with regard to full autonomy help with partial autonomy too. I think Tesla's fleet learning advantage could end up giving it a lead in cyborg driving, if it turns out full autonomy is still more than a decade out.
What do y'all think?
“But instead of the computer always being the opponent, what if it were designed to assist a human player so that the advantages of both kinds of brain were used at once? Such a system – a kind of chess cyborg – could elevate even novice players to greatness.
And that’s exactly what happened to two amateurs in 2005. Steven Cramton and Zackary Stephen were chess buddies who met at a local club in New Hampshire in the US. They had spent a few years honing their skills at the game and Stephen, in particular, was keen on chess programming.
They entered a “freestyle” tournament that year which attracted several teams of grandmasters aided by computers.
...And in the end, it all paid off – they won the tournament, leaving grandmasters and some well-known programs in their wake. It was quite a shock but it proved the theory worked: certain human skills were still unmatched by machines when it came to chess and using those skills cleverly and co-operatively could make a team unbeatable. Humans playing alongside machines are thought of as the strongest chess-playing entities possible.”
And that’s exactly what happened to two amateurs in 2005. Steven Cramton and Zackary Stephen were chess buddies who met at a local club in New Hampshire in the US. They had spent a few years honing their skills at the game and Stephen, in particular, was keen on chess programming.
They entered a “freestyle” tournament that year which attracted several teams of grandmasters aided by computers.
...And in the end, it all paid off – they won the tournament, leaving grandmasters and some well-known programs in their wake. It was quite a shock but it proved the theory worked: certain human skills were still unmatched by machines when it came to chess and using those skills cleverly and co-operatively could make a team unbeatable. Humans playing alongside machines are thought of as the strongest chess-playing entities possible.”
(This is from an article published in 2015, so I'm not sure if cyborgs still beat pure AI.)
I'm a currently a bit agnostic about whether full autonomy is possible with current technology. The most hopeful sign right now is probably Waymo doing driverless rides. But so far they haven't publicly released any rigorous data on safety.
So, what if full autonomy is off the table for the foreseeable future? I think there's still a big potential for Level 2 systems like Autopilot, Supercruise, and the stuff from Nvidia and Mobileye to evolve into something that handles city driving, as well as highways. So, the thing that Elon is envisioning when he talks about “feature complete” FSD. It can drive anywhere, but it needs constant human supervision and occasional human interventions.
This seems like 10x more achievable to me than full autonomy, so we might end up in a situation where “cyborg driving” becomes the norm for many years.
If this happens, a key part of making “cyborg driving” good is the human-machine interface. What does the machine communicate to the human? What does the human communicate to the machine? How does the human take control? Can they adjust things like speed without taking full control?
The thing I worry about most is if the machine is too good, people might get complacent and mentally check out. That means driver monitoring will be important. A steering wheel sensor is one tool for that. Why not also add a driver monitoring camera? You can add infrared light to see the driver's face at night. You use deep learning to assess whether the driver is drunk, drowsy, or distracted.
If driver monitoring is implemented well and it works, I think there is the potential for cyborg driving to increase safety and to make driving more enjoyable and less stressful by reducing cognitive load. It's not as economically disruptive as full autonomy, but it's still pretty good.
The exact same things that benefit Tesla with regard to full autonomy help with partial autonomy too. I think Tesla's fleet learning advantage could end up giving it a lead in cyborg driving, if it turns out full autonomy is still more than a decade out.
What do y'all think?
