100 kWh pack for Cybertruck - per Master Plan 3 Document just released

[jebinc]

So, the numbers come from a the Charlatan’s Master Plan III document, not rumor or FUD from FUD’sters.

This thread was created to collect all thoughts on this and to discuss this silent “development”.

100kWh pack for the Cybertruck (~300 miles range) - same pack and motors as a MS/MX Plaid, but wearing different clothes.

Your thoughts?? Your plans?

Please be sure to vote in the poll.

 

[israndy]

Moderators, can we change the text in this thread to correctly use the measure kWh?

 

[Ogre]

The table is being massively misread. The row is a category with a lot of vehicles. Not for any particular specific vehicle.

 

[jebinc]

The table is being massively misread. The row is a category with a lot of vehicles. Not for any particular specific vehicle.

That row is for MS, MX and CYBERTRUCK. 100 kWH, full stop . We already know the S/X sport 100 kWH packs, so for that table to show 100 kWH average, the Cybertruck also has to be 100 kWH. It’s just math….

Not sure how it could be “massively misread,” as it seems pretty clear to me.

 

[Ogre]

The row if “Vehicle Type”. All of the items in the row based on that. The Model X/ S/ Cybertrucks are examples of Tesla models fall into that category. The rest are estimates for all vehicles which fall into that type.

Read the table.

 

[T3SLAROD]

This is your under $60k CT with 250 miles of range

 

[mongo]

That row is for MS, MX and CYBERTRUCK. 100 kWH, full stop . We already know the S/X sport 100 kWH packs, so for that table to show 100 kWH average, the Cybertruck also has to be 100 kWH. It’s just math….

Not sure how it could be “massively misread,” as it seems pretty clear to me.

You are not reading the lead in:
"Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteries."

Column heading:
"Tesla Equivalent"

Nor foot note:
"To approximate the battery storage required to displace 100% of road vehicles, the global fleet size, pack size (kWh)/ Global passenger fleet size and annual production (~85M vehicles/year) is based on data from OICA. The number of vehicles by segment is estimated based on S&P Global sales data. For
buses and trucks, the US-to-global fleet scalar of ~5x is used as global data was unavailable"

If taken literally, 3 and Y only come in 75 kWh LFP...

 

[jebinc]

You are not reading the lead in:
"Based on pack size assumptions, the vehicle fleet will require 112 TWh of batteries."

Column heading:
"Tesla Equivalent"

Nor foot note:
"To approximate the battery storage required to displace 100% of road vehicles, the global fleet size, pack size (kWh)/ Global passenger fleet size and annual production (~85M vehicles/year) is based on data from OICA. The number of vehicles by segment is estimated based on S&P Global sales data. For
buses and trucks, the US-to-global fleet scalar of ~5x is used as global data was unavailable"

If taken literally, 3 and Y only come in 75 kWh LFP...
View attachment 926935

Time will tell.... Time will tell...

 

[Ogre]

So you’re thinking the 500 mile Cybertruck will have a 100 kWh pack?

 

[israndy]

Doesn't seem like he is thinking at all, just trollin'

 

[jebinc]

So you’re thinking the 500 mile Cybertruck will have a 100 kWh pack?

I don’t think we will see a 500 mile CT… or at least not until they figure out high nickel 4680s - and they seem to be way behind in perfecting and manufacturing that design. Higher energy density cells are needed to achieve 500 mile range, without excessive weight. Day 1, suspect they will use a non high nickel 4680 structural 100kWh pack. Wait for Charlatan worshipers….

 

[Ogre]

Non high nickel 4680 structural packs?

Is this some new thing you just made up? Do you mean LFP packs? Pretty much zero chance of that since nobody has demonstrated 4680 LFP production.

The only 4680 production on the planet is Tesla’s high nickel lines.

 

[mongo]

Non high nickel 4680 structural packs?

Is this some new thing you just made up? Do you mean LFP packs? Pretty much zero chance of that since nobody has demonstrated 4680 LFP production.

The only 4680 production on the planet is Tesla’s high nickel lines.

There are high nickel and nickel manganese cells called out in the battery day presentation.
Tear down 4680s had 811 NMC cathodes.
Tesla's 4680-Type Battery Cell Teardown: Specs Revealed

 

[jebinc]

Non high nickel 4680 structural packs?

Is this some new thing you just made up? Do you mean LFP packs? Pretty much zero chance of that since nobody has demonstrated 4680 LFP production.

The only 4680 production on the planet is Tesla’s high nickel lines.

Sorry, but the 4680's going into the MY in Tx are not the high nickel packs that were discussed on battery day back then. Tesla is still trying to figure out how to produce them.

 

[jebinc]

There are high nickel and nickel manganese cells called out in the battery day presentation.
Tear down 4680s had 811 NMC cathodes.
Tesla's 4680-Type Battery Cell Teardown: Specs Revealed
View attachment 927123
View attachment 927122

Telsa has yet to figure out how to produce these (energy density, etc.) as presented on that day. Those were supposed to go into the MY and CT, but currently thew MY is not getting 4680s at that spec.

Tesla's 4680-Type Battery Cell Teardown: Specs Revealed

In the second part of the Tesla 4680-type cylindrical battery cell teardown and analysis, The Limiting Factor presents the initial specs and findings.

insideevs.com

 

[mongo]

Telsa has yet to figure out how to produce these. Those were supposed to go into the MY and CT, but currently thew MY is not getting these. Look it up.

I was supporting your claim of high nickel cells being a thing...

Sorry, but the 4680's going into the MY in Tx are not the high nickel packs that were discussed on battery day back then. Tesla is still trying to figure out how to produce them.

However, high nickel cells were never a thing for S/X/Y/3, so the Y cell tear down doesn't reflect on their ability to make such cells. See battery day images in my previous post.
Further, the 500 mile Semi shows that either 1) high nickel may not be a gating item or 2) they are making those cells.

 

[jebinc]

I was supporting your claim of high nickel cells being a thing...



However, high nickel cells were never a thing for S/X/Y/3, so the Y cell tear down doesn't reflect on their ability to make such cells. See battery day images in my previous post.
Further, the 500 mile Semi shows that either 1) high nickel may not be a gating item or 2) they are making those cells.

Time will tell. Keep in mind, CT production is starting soon, so whatever battery is going in, can only be one they can make at volume. That looks to be the 4680 that is going into the TX MY right know; so the article seems relevant.

 

[mongo]

Time will tell. Keep in mind, CT production is starting soon, so whatever battery is going in, can only be one they can make at volume. That looks to be the 4680 that is going into the TX MY right know; so the article seems relevant.

CT production starts later this year and Tesla is in the process of bringing up 3 more cell lines and the cathode plant.
I wouldn't be suprised if they made taller cells. 4680 aligned with 2170, but there's no clear reason they couldn't go with 46120 or longer.

 

[jebinc]

CT production starts later this year and Tesla is in the process of bringing up 3 more cell lines and the cathode plant.
I wouldn't be suprised if they made taller cells. 4680 aligned with 2170, but there's no clear reason they couldn't go with 46120 or longer.

Could be, but given the lack of any other information, all we have to work with is the MP3 table and what we know about the current MY 4680 structural pack. Can’t imagine the CT getting a non structural pack as that is core to its design. So, MY 4680s….

 

[RandyS]

Here's my explanation for the table...In the early days, the Model S was offered in 40 kWh, 60 kWh, and 85 kWh versions. What number would be in a table to represent all of those? Maybe 60 kWh? I see it as an average, not the maximum.

In a similar vein, showing an average of 100 kWh for Cybertruck batteries means (in my mind), that some of the trucks with less range will have a smaller battery and some of the larger range trucks will have a larger battery, with perhaps an overall average of about 100 kWh. I wouldn't read too much into it at this point...