2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

Why wasn't every freaking out when heals guided to 47k on the low end 5 months ago? I mean they got their guidance. The range is for best and worst case, battery issues caused the worst case. My guess is that they new that the 100kwh would require adjustments to the processes for assembly because they are packages differently from smaller packs. How quickly we forget they missed guidance on the low end for all of 2016 and they are 53% over that today. Where people claiming demand was down in 2016?

There is a false narrative the demand is lagging and it's being assumed based on deliveries. Demand still out paces supply, by how much though no one knows.

Exactly. Agreed.

This is a short term dip. Bears are trying to create a long squeeze and push out the longs who are overleveraged. I expect a bounce, because the valuation here makes zero sense considering the upcoming 3x growth in 2018.

 

[Tslynk67]

i'm options only... my opinion is that Tesla will not significantly roll out faster than competition over the next 18 months, the alternative lines of business won't explode into miracle revenue streams and it will be more and more obvious as time goes by. I expect a return to the $100s by xmas.

Sorry, but totally disagree here. What competition? Leaf, Zoe, Bolt? Maybe decent cars, sure, but nowhere M3 in terms of design, performance, desirability. Furthermore there's the issue of where they will get the batteries to match Tesla's volumes and what charging network they will use for outside-range distance.

For comparable price-points, there are very few people that would choose another EV over a Tesla.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

i bought this week's $320s for 7c on Monday morning... I sold them yesterday for $2 and am both jumping up and down and kicking myself... they'll trade for $5 to $7 if it opens this low... that's a 100x trade... I only got about 30x out of it.

Notice how the specifics of myusername's trades come out AFTER the trade. I encourage everyone to ignore this FUDster.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The fall appears to be continuing in the pre-market. $324

Premarket is highly manipulated because of its extremely low volume. It moves even when I buy a few hundred shares every now and then, so imagine how easy it would be for bears to manipulate it if they colluded.

 

[ncmountains]

So Tesla comes through with the mass market car with 400k pre orders and deliveries start in less than a month. The announcement is made and simultaneously a bunch of bad news hits the wire for tesla sexual harassment, negative safety, floundering sales, etc etc....
Smells like fear to me. The biggest moment in tesla history and tons of negative press....
How so many people sell on this kind blatant sensationalism makes me think I'm going to read about a rash of turnip truck accidents involving thousands of people falling off..,

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Honestly I love this roller coaster SP movement (I did love it less some years ago, invest accordingly).

The TSLA SP quite often moves up for no good reason, and it moves down for no good reason as well.
This shows just how absolutely unpredictable the SP is in the short term (ok, Jerome preannouncing delivery beat some time ago was something else, lot of folks made lots of money back then. But that is some years ago!).

And honestly I love the GS lie that Model X and S demand has plateaued. Everybody already knows that Tesla Motors officially confirmed this as a lie and said this is not true. They even gave an explanation for the lower production rate and mentioned current demand levels! Everybody can read this black on white. This is a fact as good as it gets.
And please remember, don't be surprised, GS did comparable lies an SP manipulation during the past, they just confirmed their track record of being willing to lie again.
The important thing is to remember that GS is successful with their lies and their SP manipulation, make money of that!
Personally I am very happy that I had to cash out some mid term calls some days ago, these calls got too close to expiration.
Already bought some DITM LEAPS.
As the GS lie is so easy to see, I added some DITM LEAPs yesterday.
I expect GS to know their business an I expect an other big drop today (maybe 10% ?) and in this case I will buy another slice (about 10% of my money reserved for options gamble, 20% already invested).
And I keep some money for adding all the way down.
Because nobody knows the next roller coaster move I plan and I keep adding down till about $180.
I hope we get a quick an brutal move down to $180, I will buy DITM LEAPs there with both hands like there is no tomorrow!
Already made me a lot of money

Edit:
Thank you again, GS, thank you liars, thank you FUDsters, thank you, dark side of the force. You can help me make money with wild SP swings, but you will not stop the energy revolution simply because the future will be cheaper and people love cheaper

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I feel really bad for the longs that are getting squeezed out, but I hope that newest members to the TMC community take this a learning experience to never overextend on a stock using excessive leverage.

I bought more shares yesterday using a moderate amount of margin if a client has put in more money. I also advised some of my clients who have personal accounts outside of my firm to buy more shares today. I believe today's prices present a solid opportunity for long-term investors.

 

[madodel]

Time for a motivational image.

View attachment 234281

Soon the shorts won't have two legs to stand on.

Or we won't. Not certain which of us is the black night at this point.

 

[madodel]

Why would S/X sales plateau at 100K? Let's not forget that there are huge geographical areas where it is not reasonable possible to own a Tesla currently. Just looking at Europe, there are still no service centers in SPain and Portugal, just one in the extreme north of Italy, and none in the former eastern block (east of Germany/Austria). There are lots àf wealthy people in those countries who have no option to buy and service a Tesla, and currently have no option but to buy a Porsche, Audi, BMW or Mercedes if they want a high performance car.
There are even entire continents (Africa, South America) that don't have a Tesla presence.
I guess that less than 20% of the world population has the option to actually buy a Tesla. The other 80% of the world has to buy an ice even if they want a Tesla. I would only start to think about plateauing S/X demand if most of the world is geographically covered buy Tesla.

There are entire states in the US where it is illegal for Tesla to have a showroom. In Pennsylvania they are by law only allowed 4 showrooms and it is a huge state, often described as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between. There is incredible room for growth, but for now it is not allowed.

 

[Starno]

I love this roller coaster SP movement.
SP quite often moves up for no good reason, and sometimes it moves down for no good reason as well.
Just shows how absolutely unpredictable the SP is in the short term (ok, Jerome preannouncing delivery beat some time ago was something else, lot of folks made lots of money back then. But that is some years ago!).
Honestly I love the GS lie that Model X and S demand has plateaued. Tesla Motors officially confirmed this is a lie. Everybody can read this black in white. This is a fact as good as it gets.
Please remember, GS did comparable lies during the past, they just confirmed their track record willing to lie.
Personally I am very happy that I had to cash out some mid term calls some days ago, these calls got too close to expiration.
Already bought some DITM LEAPS.
Added some yesterday.
And I keep some money for adding I'll the way down.
Because nobody knows the next roller coaster move I plan and I keep adding down till $180.
I hope we get a quick an brutal move down to $180, I will buy DITM LEAPs there with both hands like there is no tomorrow!
Already made me a lot of money

Yes except it's easy to see Tesla is always the underdog that few people like : Yes Tesla moved up for months, but when was the last time that TSLA gained 7,25% in one day, with previous +3-5% a day, and the next day still takes +3% pre market.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yes except it's easy to see Tesla is always the underdog that few people like : Yes Tesla moved up for months, but when was the last time that TSLA gained 7,25% in one day, with previous +3-5% a day, and the next day still takes +3% pre market.

I don't care.

Just look at the charts.

Are you sad about the last SP rise taking as long as a few months and not happening in a couple of days?

I feel sorry for you.

I am very happy about the last couple of months and I am very happy about the last couple of days.

 

[AlMc]

Nice Tesla segment just aired on the Today show. Positive piece. I will o\post link when one becomes available but for friends not on the east coast it is in the 7:30 segment.

 

[Starno]

I don't care.

Just look at the charts.

Are you sad about the last SP rise taking as long as a few months and not happening in a couple of days?

I feel sorry for you.

I am very happy about the last couple of months and I am very happy about the last couple of days.

I'm just stating the fact.
Why are you defensive (i feel sorry for you) ? I'm also happy for the last couple of days because I'm able to buy cheaper and so will make even bigger profits.

I just said Tesla is still in the " skeptical " part even though it rose well for couple of months. People are more easily triggered, and fall for the negative news more easily.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

What the team of shorts is doing is illegal and immoral, and I don' t know how they sleep at night.

But I will take advantage of their immoral methods today.

 

[AlMc]

He's OK, he's long AFAIK

Based on the interview Dave T did with him IIRC he does use 20% drop as a stop loss. Would be interested to hear his thoughts on the recent price action and his plan now and contingent plan if the SP drops further.

@TT007: You OK?

 

[AlMc]

Elon Musk’s big gamble: Tesla set to roll out new $35,000 electric car

Today Show spot on Tesla

 

[KLC13]

WTF is happening premarket. Down 3%!!

 

[Starno]

WTF is happening premarket. Down 3%!!

I think it's all the people who got involved with TSLA just to ride the wave, but didn't care at all about the company itself. They're basically quitting the boat.

 

[AlMc]

WTF is happening premarket. Down 3%!!

Be careful out there. While futures market does not always follow through into the day the NAZ futures are not good and some longs on margin are hurting. Sell side analysts and shorts are in control (IMO).

I wish I could be short term optimistic but I am not.

EDIT: If you are buy/hold long this too shall pass. (Had to add at least something positive)

 

[Tslynk67]

2040 seems 10-15 years too late, but it's another nail in the fossil-fuel coffin

France is banning all petrol and diesel vehicles