ValueAnalyst
Closed
Can you please explain how you define and calculate "max pain" ?
I've heard this term before and I know it has something to do with OpEx but the calculation is what I'm really interested in.
Thank you in advance!
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Can you please explain how you define and calculate "max pain" ?
I've heard this term before and I know it has something to do with OpEx but the calculation is what I'm really interested in.
Thank you in advance!
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I completely agree with this. Buyers come in quicker and stronger when an undervalued stock dips.
if I am recalling correctly, I don't think past recalls( I remember the seatbelt one) had a big dent on SP. One, volume for Tesla recall so far is small.
Also, many did in fact praise Tesla for being transparent and proactive. Compare this to Dieselgate and Takata airbags which Honda/Toyota knew but did not handle properly ...
So TSLA got chugg along till earnings. As with all earnings and esp for Tesla there might be fireworks either way. But this time I think chances to the upside far outweighs the downside.
So on to earnings and the July M3 reveal ... Sit tight and hold ...
Also, many did in fact praise Tesla for being transparent and proactive. Compare this to Dieselgate and Takata airbags which Honda/Toyota knew but did not handle properly ...
So TSLA got chugg along till earnings. As with all earnings and esp for Tesla there might be fireworks either way. But this time I think chances to the upside far outweighs the downside.
So on to earnings and the July M3 reveal ... Sit tight and hold ...
T3slaTulips
Member
I bought back in at 302. The sale was at 296.7, so I'll have to eat a small loss. I can live with it.I chickened out and sold a little at open.
The plan is to move money out of my account and then buy in again using margin, which will take ~3 days to complete. I would prefer it if we are lower than now, but if not - I still have a quite substantial position.
The money I'm moving out will likely go to a Model X, just need to get my wife to give the thumbs up. She's almost there.
Also, an X100D is ordered. Being produced right now!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla Quietly Unveils Sleek New Solar Panels this post dated April 11th says it was done quietly. Not sure if they are one and the same(i.e. same as the supposed announcement from Elon). So might have to wait for earnings for this one as well.So you should expect it in May
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Interesting. Looks like there are billions riding on call options over the next eight months.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Has 007 backed up the truck this last hour?
Here we go again from Seeking Alpha. What image is being dinged really? Honesty and trustworthiness? From what I can see, the only image being dinged is the Seeking Alpha's reports fuking speechless faces when they see TSLA double this year.
Tesla: Another Recall Dings Image - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla: Another Recall Dings Image - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
ValueAnalyst
Closed
The author who wrote this has been writing negatively about Tesla for a year now; even at $180. He tried to discredit me in every which way possible along with ~10 contributors who took various actions to get me off the site, and one of them even tried things outside of the website.
It's pathetic. I don't know how these people sleep at night.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
There are a few thousand short shares that will likely have to close by the end of the day. This will be interesting.
Won't be surprised to find that they are sponsored by gas and oil companies.
Website:
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
It can be persnickety at times, and give really strange results if you use it at off hours.
Also Max Pain Theory:
Max Pain
I consider Goldman-Sachs a "dip" too.Look at it this way,
302 is now considered a "dip" -
Maybe that's not what you meant
FWIW, Max Pain is at either 300, 297.50, or 295 for every single maturity out to 6/2/17. (For the later maturities this year, max pain is at 270.... and it's way down at 230 for the 1/19/2018 maturities.) I'm not sure what this indicates but it's remarkably *flat* -- the magnetic power of round numbers, I guess.
Market makers don't like being exposed across news and earnings reports, since they're fundamentally trying to collect spread and time value and not be exposed to the actual stock movement. The technicals say that staying in this tight tight band near 300 seems quite unlikely, but they have strong reason to keep it there through as many expirations as they can. It puts them in an invidious position though: even if you don't understand Tesla at all, you can probably guess that it's more likely to go down or up than to stay flat... and yet the implied volatility in the options pricing is still fairly low by TSLA historical standards, so they're not getting paid that much for the risk...
I wonder what they're hedging with.
So you should expect it in May
Maybe Elon's saving it, and a number of other items that can be announced if the broad meeker suffers should there be a government shutdown? The more I read in the news, and the closer we get to April 28th, the more convinced I am that a government shutdown of some sort will happen.
The "rally" today was due almost entirely to Mnuchin claiming the GOP have a viable plan for comprehensive tax reform that he claims will be implemented soon.
The same people claimed they produced a "viable alternative" to the affordable care act, and instead produced a pile a gobbledygook, and blamed the Democrats and "un loyal Republicans" for it not getting sufficient support.
Congress will have less than 4 days to debate/discuss any theoretical plan and approve or reject it. Anyone honestly think the GOP will be able to pull this off? I suspect it will be more lies, followed up with Trump blaming any government shutdown on the Democrats.
Oh, no. It's about the options markets. Nothing to do with the company at all, really.
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
Here's the theory. Options market makers are *imbalanced*. They sell more options than they buy. So they're net options sellers. This means that when options expire "in the money", the options market makers typically lose money. You can add up all the outstanding options and figure out, *if the market makers only sold options and didn't buy any*, what price they'd be happiest with at expiration.
Now, this is going to be wrong, because it doesn't tell you how many people other than market makers are selling options -- for instance, anyone who sells covered calls or cash-secured equity puts. (Also more complicated spreads.) But it gives a rough approximation. And *particularly* when there are a whole lot of options outstanding and they amount to a whole lot of money and the expiration date is coming up really soon, the market makers can have an incentive to keep the stock price near a particular price to make more options expire.
(This incentive is obviously strongest on Fridays, when options expire at market close, and weakest on Mondays.)
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