2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

Haven't been a TMC member that long. I joined to specifically engage with the investment community here. I did invest in TSLA back in 2012, but it was chump change compared to what others here did. The one lesson I learned was not to mess with my core investment. I screwed myself over back then by trying to time the peaks and buy back in the valleys. I would have been best off holding my shares.

Now I own enough shares where I can trade some options with minimal risk, primarily using covered calls as an income strategy. Learned how to rollover the covered calls in the money from one week to the next (without messing with my core shares) from folks here, so thank you very much.

It's mostly wishful thinking that a VW like short squeeze will happen. Realistically it's not going to happen and the chances on being able to capitalize it are even lower for a lowly retail investor like myself.

I love reading everyone's posts. I'm learning a lot about how shares are lent out for shorting. So again, thank you to this community. I'm glad to be engaging here after lurking for a while. The best is yet to come for all of us.

 

[adiggs]

My primary reason to believe that it is more likely than not that Tesla will announce Level 5 autonomy in Model 3 final reveal in July is that seven months ago Tesla began installing Level 5-capable hardware on new cars. If your estimate of July of 2018 permission for approval is correct, assuming it would take at least another 6 months for approval, three years would be a very very long time to incur additional costs without corresponding revenue.

My base case assumes Level 5 announcement in July, with six month to a year skepticism from some consumers while Tesla meets demand from early adopters in 2017, followed by one year of slowly expanding consumer adoption despite no regulatory approval throughout 2018, followed by regulatory approval from some states by the end of 2018, followed by federal approval in 2019.

As optimistic as that sounds, one year ago I had predicted 2021, and continuously had to revise my prediction to sooner.

Other reasons include commentary from Elon: "sooner than most people expect" "we will do the obvious thing" "why would you buy any other car" "AP is top priority" etc.

An interesting dynamic that I've seen being talked about, and that I hadn't expected to see really, is that there are governments that are in effect competing with each other to be autonomous friendly. One article I read a few months back, was talking about how an autonomous driving corridor from Seattle to Vancouver BC could effectively widen I-5 for that corridor, without building any additional infrastructure (or at least, no additional lanes on the highway).

That kind of dynamic tells me that whether the final / big / federal / blanket approval is as fast as you're thinking or not, I increasingly believe that the other way points you list are more reasonable than I originally thought.

Companies that are approaching this as a problem that requires massive upgrades to the roads, signage, and vehicles so that we can begin autonomy are - I think - going about solving the problem wrong and will be too slow about the solution.

Here's a link:
Autonomous Vehicle Plan for the I-5 Seattle/Vancouver B.C. Corridor | Madrona Venture Group

 

[Richgoogol]

Someone just did a massive sell order that pulled TSLA from $307 all the way down to the negative territory.
Apparently it's due to a recall of 53,000 Model S and X due to break issues.

 

[D-egg-O]

Someone just did a massive sell order that pulled TSLA from $307 all the way down to the negative territory.

Tesla issues a voluntary recall on the parking brake. Some people are overreacting.

Tesla issues voluntary recall for 53,000 cars due to a faulty gear in the parking brakes from 3rd-party supplier

 

[racer26]

Someone just did a massive sell order that pulled TSLA from $307 all the way down to the negative territory.
Apparently it's due to a recall of 53,000 Model S and X due to break issues.

Holy *sugar*, how big does a sell order have to be to cause a $5 shift in seconds?

 

[T3slaTulips]

Well that was ugly.

 

[JBRR]

looks like algos being trigged by "recall+tsla".

 

[MartinAustin]

Buying opportunity

 

[Richgoogol]

Move along people, nothing to see here

 

[racer26]

I feel like there might be a commensurate lack of short availability now, as though someone basically threw the entire availability at trying to paint the recall news in a dark light (really, Tesla only expects that it actually effects 3-5% of the vehicles recalled.)

 

[MP3Mike]

Somebody is buying big on the dip...

But it looks like people might be actually reading the details and see that this recall isn't really a big deal. (Though it could be for Brembo.)

 

[D-egg-O]

An interesting dynamic that I've seen being talked about, and that I hadn't expected to see really, is that there are governments that are in effect competing with each other to be autonomous friendly. One article I read a few months back, was talking about how an autonomous driving corridor from Seattle to Vancouver BC could effectively widen I-5 for that corridor, without building any additional infrastructure (or at least, no additional lanes on the highway).

That kind of dynamic tells me that whether the final / big / federal / blanket approval is as fast as you're thinking or not, I increasingly believe that the other way points you list are more reasonable than I originally thought.

Companies that are approaching this as a problem that requires massive upgrades to the roads, signage, and vehicles so that we can begin autonomy are - I think - going about solving the problem wrong and will be too slow about the solution.

Here's a link:
Autonomous Vehicle Plan for the I-5 Seattle/Vancouver B.C. Corridor | Madrona Venture Group

The Portland Business Alliance just had an event yesterday regarding that subject.

http://weblink.portlandalliance.com/events/eventdetail.aspx?EventID=4479

 

[Reciprocity]

looks like algos being trigged by "recall+tsla".

what a dumb algo, unless it says sell then buy again in 20 minutes after you find out its parking break and takes 45 minutes to fix.

 

[Paracelsus]

Let's hope someone put in a huge sell order to get the price down to an even bigger buy order price..............? The algos must be working at warp speed the last few days. I wouldn't want the job of overseeing their performance between now and earnings. Those dudes just got a zero-sleep assignment if GS had to re-issue their garbage rating again.

 

[JBRR]

Was gonna wait till closer to earnings to buy earnings bet calls - but this drop made me jump from the couch and place my bets.

 

[Richgoogol]

It goes to show that how incompetent and tight assed these traders are, the algo is probably set as "if TSLA drops 0.8%, sell everything!!!!"

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I bought 200 shares. This is a non-event imo.

 

[Reciprocity]

It will be interesting to see how many minutes this takes to shake out and return to the price it was just before it dropped. I am going to be bet its back up by 2pm EST.

 

[racer26]

Those that caught the brief 300.xx a minute or two ago did well. I got my paws on a couple 302.50 calls for tomorrows expiry at around 301.50

 

[Sudre]

I caught the 301.xx. Not quite quick enough.