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It comes down to batteries, and I think they need to work on the flow of air around the edge of the windshield - somehow.
Reciprocity
Active Member
The only thing I had hoped and actually thought we might get some more color on was ground breaking on gigafactories 3-5. Don't need to know where at this point but wanted to know if they were planning on being ground almost simultaneously or more staggered. It would be helpful to know if they think they will get to 6M cars/Year sooner than later. And right when, due ground breaking.
If you have flying you probably go long distance, then AP1 may be very useful and cost you a little more. Talked to this lady at a party who said she can't stand her husbands model S and prefers her Mercedes because of the way she can pay for excellent service and never feels put off. I mentioned autopilot and driving to LA. She's like, oh I wouldnt want to drive all the way to LA in the Mercedes and I just shot back, neither would I in a Mercedes
I think they want Model 3 up and running and maybe more importantly Tesla Semi Reveal so they can say, we have X orders for the Tesla Semi in hand (plus possibly another vehicle to be named later). Therefore, investors, please don't freak out when we say we need to build these other Gigafactories.
dc_h
Active Member
With the new smaller Model 3 motors, I'm looking forward to a 4 motor S & X that will have more range and plaid speed. I also expect 2170 batteries in the fall, and maybe an updated interior.
I also think they will make and sell 100,000 S/X this year, in addition to whatever number of Model 3's that can make. Would like to see 152,000 cars delivered this year. That would make over 400,000 very plausible for 2018.
I also think they will make and sell 100,000 S/X this year, in addition to whatever number of Model 3's that can make. Would like to see 152,000 cars delivered this year. That would make over 400,000 very plausible for 2018.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
TSLA has performed extraordinarily well as of late. As a shareholder, I'm very pleased. Unfortunately for me, though, I got concerned of a broad market pullback a little while back and put a collar $290/$360 collar on my TSLA position (Oct 17 exp). I've been watching and thinking as the price climbed higher thinking there may be a near term pullback but indications seems to be that Tesla will continue to roar forward.
So, would you recommended buying calls with $360-$400 strike or perhaps a call spread in an attempt to capture a likely move higher around the model 3 launch? I'm thinking November or December 2017 expiration?
I'm somewhat capital constrained but have a position I could sell to fund this purchase on which I'm up (slightly but will not be taking a loss on sale). The concern around simply buying to close to the $360 calls is that they're worth quite a bit more now than when I sold them so I'd prefer to avoid that loss, particularly since there's a chance the price is below $360 at October expiration.
So, would you recommended buying calls with $360-$400 strike or perhaps a call spread in an attempt to capture a likely move higher around the model 3 launch? I'm thinking November or December 2017 expiration?
I'm somewhat capital constrained but have a position I could sell to fund this purchase on which I'm up (slightly but will not be taking a loss on sale). The concern around simply buying to close to the $360 calls is that they're worth quite a bit more now than when I sold them so I'd prefer to avoid that loss, particularly since there's a chance the price is below $360 at October expiration.
The front one and the back one are different. One optimized for highways and one optimized for city efficiency. This difference doubled the risk of failure.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Exactly. That's probably the most important thing for investors trying to value to the company...
Hopefully someone will ask at the next earnings call next month.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
All the dual motor cars have a different motor for front and back, and have the two motors geared differently for city vs. highway driving. This is not new territory for Tesla.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yea. I need to adjust my DCF upwards, again.
And they call me optimistic...
All I do is adjust my DCF up... how's that optimistic?!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Unless they decided the lower power "city" motor could be more efficient if it were PM instead of induction.
If I heard right, Elon said that the batteries for Model Y would come from Gigafactory 1, but a new factory would be needed to assemble Model Y. Logically, the new factory would be on the West Coast to minimize transport distance of parts from Gigafactory 1. The decision on the location would have to be soon if production is to start in 2 1/2 years.
I don't think so. The D cars use the same motor front and back. (The PxxD cars use a larger rear motor.)
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Possible I guess, but I'm pretty sure Tesla will steer clear of permanent magnet motors because they are more likely to overheat than induction motors, and they would be more likely to use rare earth metals.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I misspoke--it actually depends. Some duals use the same motor front and back (100D, 85D), and some use the higher performance in back (P85D, P90D, P100D).
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