2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[myusername]

Only 100 in August. That seems like a super slow ramp.

I'm happy with 30 in July but only 100 in August seems super duper slow

My initial reaction is this is far slower than what I thought.
September 1500 is okay

Let's see... will it be 100k to 200k in 2017 like ValueInvestor predicted... or will it be between 10k and 20k like myusername predicted?... but oh no... that was just trolling right?... anyone with a bear sentiment is a troll... because they're always just trying to spread FUD... which is pretty much as real as Elon's ambitious goals.

remember... exactly this time last year everyone was hooting and hollering about 100k to 200k in 2017... and 500k+ in 2018... remember that?... and then reality says 10k to 20k in 2017... and 100k to 200k in 2018.

 

[myusername]

TSLA is going to fail again and again and again all the way to a $1 Trillion market cap. If they stop failing they will never get there.

i agree with you... minus the $1T... and I agree that they aren't "just" a car company as so many like to proclaim... but my reasoning is, that they've never been a company at all... the only thing they actually sell is cars... but they are so far away from selling anywhere close to real auto companies, it's not even worth comparison... so the story has been this whole time: "Tesla isn't [just] an auto company"... which is true... but was somehow considered a positive.

but now they're supposed to become an auto company... for real... and so now, they will finally be measured in a way that can be considered a "fail".

 

[erthquake]

Let's see... will it be 100k to 200k in 2017 like ValueInvestor predicted... or will it be between 10k and 20k like myusername predicted?... but oh no... that was just trolling right?... anyone with a bear sentiment is a troll... because they're always just trying to spread FUD... which is pretty much as real as Elon's ambitious goals.

remember... exactly this time last year everyone was hooting and hollering about 100k to 200k in 2017... and 500k+ in 2018... remember that?... and then reality says 10k to 20k in 2017... and 100k to 200k in 2018.

You're so predictable, in a child-like toddler kind of way. We've all been aware of and noted Musk's more recent 80,000 "perfect execution" number. And based on his tweets, 20k per month puts Tesla at 340k in 2018, at least.

Go away. You live a sad life, and are not helping to make the world a better place. Take up a hobby, or work for a non-profit that actually contributes to the betterment of those less fortunate than us. It'll make us all happier.

 

[dw4ngg]

i agree with you... minus the $1T... and I agree that they aren't "just" a car company as so many like to proclaim... but my reasoning is, that they've never been a company at all... the only thing they actually sell is cars... but they are so far away from selling anywhere close to real auto companies, it's not even worth comparison... so the story has been this whole time: "Tesla isn't [just] an auto company"... which is true... but was somehow considered a positive.

but now they're supposed to become an auto company... for real... and so now, they will finally be measured in a way that can be considered a "fail".

Whatevs dude, we making monies; you're not

 

[jeewee3000]

Elon's tweets are bullish, because - simply put - ...

...the "S-curve" of Model 3 production is happening sooner than most analysts expected. Yay for S-curves.

 

[dw4ngg]

Elon's tweets are bullish, because - simply put - ...

...the "S-curve" of Model 3 production is happening sooner than most analysts expected. Yay for S-curves.

He's actually being conservative to set up more surprise beats, which is even better

 

[myusername]

You're so predictable, in a child-like toddler kind of way. We've all been aware of and noted Musk's more recent 80,000 "perfect execution" number. And based on his tweets, 20k per month puts Tesla at 340k in 2018, at least.

Go away. You live a sad life, and are not helping to make the world a better place. Take up a hobby, or work for a non-profit that actually contributes to the betterment of those less fortunate than us. It'll make us all happier.

you do not live in reality. when Elon puts on a massive Earth Saving show and comes up short... who do you think wins?... I'm actually a tree hugging liberal... but I do not believe the way to make the world a better place is to spin long tails about a utopian world to project a company's worth as something that it's not.

 

[Reciprocity]

No worries, they will spin it to look like tesla is failing again.
Lying is no problem, just look at electrek comments, there are alredy shills claiming tesla promised 100k M3 this year.

Embrace the FUD, the FUD is your friend. The more FUD is spread the more shorts, the more squeeze. Shorts cannot make the stuck go down by shorting, it's not possible. As long as all of us hyper longs, along with Elon and other large investors don't believe the FUD it cannot hurt us, only embolden us. There is going to be alot of short covering today to help amplify the move up because of low volume. Elon could have made this announcement at any time, why do it late Sunday night before a major holiday? Could it be to punish those who want him and his company to die? Maybe he is not that petty, or maybe he has read some of this short dumbassery that is pervasive and abundant.

For a laugh I invite you to search Twitter for $tsla. If you think our paid shorts on this forum are bad, you ain't seen nothing. It's basically Spiegel incoherently cussing about Ponzi scheme and losing money on every car with a smattering of every EV coming to kill the Tesla with a topping of autopilot fail videos.

As to what Elon stated, my guess is that it's very conservative and they could exceeded the roughly 30,000 in 2017 by a decent margin. Anything near 30,000 would destroy every analyst prediction. Add in a not so insignificant contribution from TE and you could be looking at a very nice year with a continued growth rate on the order of 70% for as far as you could imagine, which would demolish the bear narrative.

If we take these production estimates as a given, the only major question lingering in my mind is the gross margins. I fully expect 10% for model 3 for 2017 and 20% for 2018. 2019 is a bit trickier because we have to see how FSD rev recognition goes and how they will offset the loss of fed tax credits. My guess is that they will keep the price the same on S/X and make incremental improvements like we just saw with July 1 0-60 performance improvements. Some kind of interior refresh with HUD/AR could be in the works as well. Nix the second screen and replace it with a HUD. And issue of course I still believe 2170 cost savings are coming to S/X next year no matter what Elon says on Twitter.

GLTA.. Long and strong forever.

 

[STARR X]

We should also be getting Q2 production/delivery number after hours today right?

I am guessing after the market closes on Monday.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Embrace the FUD, the FUD is your friend. The more FUD is spread the more shorts, the more squeeze. Shorts cannot make the stuck go down by shorting, it's not possible. As long as all of us hyper longs, along with Elon and other large investors don't believe the FUD it cannot hurt us, only embolden us. There is going to be alot of short covering today to help amplify the move up because of low volume. Elon could have made this announcement at any time, why do it late Sunday night before a major holiday? Could it be to punish those who want him and his company to die? Maybe he is not that petty, or maybe he has read some of this short dumbassery that is pervasive and abundant.

For a laugh I invite you to search Twitter for $tsla. If you think our paid shorts on this forum are bad, you ain't seen nothing. It's basically Spiegel incoherently cussing about Ponzi scheme and losing money on every car with a smattering of every EV coming to kill the Tesla with a topping of autopilot fail videos.

As to what Elon stated, my guess is that it's very conservative and they could exceeded the roughly 30,000 in 2017 by a decent margin. Anything near 30,000 would destroy every analyst prediction. Add in a not so insignificant contribution from TE and you could be looking at a very nice year with a continued growth rate on the order of 70% for as far as you could imagine, which would demolish the bear narrative.

If we take these production estimates as a given, the only major question lingering in my mind is the gross margins. I fully expect 10% for model 3 for 2017 and 20% for 2018. 2019 is a bit trickier because we have to see how FSD rev recognition goes and how they will offset the loss of fed tax credits. My guess is that they will keep the price the same on S/X and make incremental improvements like we just saw with July 1 0-60 performance improvements. Some kind of interior refresh with HUD/AR could be in the works as well. Nix the second screen and replace it with a HUD. And issue of course I still believe 2170 cost savings are coming to S/X next year no matter what Elon says on Twitter.

GLTA.. Long and strong forever.

I think the most prominent bears on Twitter/SeekingAlpha are the same people as the two FUDsters here.

And I think mmd is the most prominent of all of them.

So you do the math.

 

[Saber]

and I agree that they aren't "just" a car company as so many like to proclaim... but my reasoning is, that they've never been a company at all... the only thing they actually sell is cars... but they are so far away from selling anywhere close to real auto companies, it's not even worth comparison...

So I guess you don't see Ferrari that produces less than 10.000 cars/year as a car company? Not even a company?

 

[MissAutobahn]

Maybe Elon is actually going to underpromise and over deliver for once?

Elon just mentioned "per month" for december (about 3,5 weeks= ~5,500/week). The 30-100-1,500 for the next few month he didn't. So what if those are weekly rates?

 

[myusername]

So I guess you don't see Ferrari that produces less than 10.000 cars/year as a car company? Not even a company?

headline: "Tesla's first mass market car, the Model 3, hits production this week"

so Tesla just transitioned from a company that "one day is going to be the biggest auto manufacturer in the world!" to currently the lowest performing mass market auto company in the world which also has a $60B valuation.

 

[sundaymorning]

headline: "Tesla's first mass market car, the Model 3, hits production this week"

so Tesla just transitioned from a company that "one day is going to be the biggest auto manufacturer in the world!" to currently the lowest performing mass market auto company in the world which also has a $60B valuation.

I know right? Tesla is grossly undervalued. I suspect Mr. Market will soon give it a $100 Billion valuation, easily.

 

[Runarbt]

headline: "Tesla's first mass market car, the Model 3, hits production this week"

so Tesla just transitioned from a company that "one day is going to be the biggest auto manufacturer in the world!" to currently the lowest performing mass market auto company in the world which also has a $60B valuation.

So u agree Tesla is in fact the highest performer (mcap/production) of any car manufaturer.. and they have barely just begun with the first of their volume models! :-D Finally you see the bullish side of things.

Where will Tesla end up mcap wise, when the model 3 is a huge success, and we know they plan to follow up with model y, pickup, semi, roadster... and unkown other models in the future!?!

 

[Ovulation]

My guess is that they will keep the price the same on S/X and make incremental improvements like we just saw with July 1 0-60 performance improvements. Some kind of interior refresh with HUD/AR could be in the works as well. Nix the second screen and replace it with a HUD. And issue of course I still believe 2170 cost savings are coming to S/X next year no matter what Elon says on Twitter.

GLTA.. Long and strong forever.

The S is not differentiated enough from the 3 (the X has at least the wings on its sight) and because of that we see a certain amount of Osborning right now. It was pretty obvious to me that a lot of S and X owners overreached for the car, with the model 3 in sight they simply wait a year or two. So yes because of that an interior refresh and a really cool HUD could/would help to drive new interest for the S. I hope they do it ... at least the hired a Hololens guy.

 

[austinEV]

I think the most prominent bears on Twitter/SeekingAlpha are the same people as the two FUDsters here.

And I think mmd is the most prominent of all of them.

So you do the math.

mmd= montana most doubtful. I promise you.

All, please quote a mmd/ the other guy message when replying so those of us who use the ignore button don't see you guys arguing against an intractable ghost.

 

[DragonWatch]

Please do not feed the bears

Elon Musk just revealed when Tesla will deliver its first Model 3 cars

 

[ValueAnalyst]

mmd= montana most doubtful. I promise you

Agreed - but I think you can take that one step further to real life shorts.

 

[maxlength888]

Current market action ($368.32 @ 96.73 volume). Reminiscent of mid last week, when a strong pre-market rally slowly diminished as we neared market open. Is this the strongest pop the market can muster after such news?