2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Reciprocity]

think about what you're saying... "I think I might be under estimating a bit"... from a $120b valuation?... come on man... seriously?... 10 months?... why?... because AMZN?... NFLX?...

jesus christ people... what's wrong with you.

I read all of that and not one projection... You can do better then that. Yes $120B and under valued at that. Tesla is $120B company based on TE and Tesla utility alone. I estimate the semi fueling stations could generate $20B a year in net revenue alone. Valuations are based on future risk adjusted cash flows and such.. again, not doing the math for you, search my past posts if your interested.

 

[Gerasimental]

I read all of that and not one projection... You can do better then that. Yes $120B and under valued at that. Tesla is $120B company based on TE and Tesla utility alone. I estimate the semi fueling stations could generate $20B a year in net revenue alone. Valuations are based on future risk adjusted cash flows and such.. again, not doing the math for you, search my past posts if your interested.

Just did some numbers on this. According to Semi Trucks: By the Numbers - HDS Truck Driving Institute, semis cover 140bn miles per year and have an average fuel economy of 6mpg, for a total fuel consumption of 23.3bn gallons of diesel. At $2.5 per gallon (can't believe how cheap US fuel prices are...), this is a TAM of $59bn. Crazy.

 

[bdy0627]

I'm just hoping that the evidence of model 3s moving eastward drowns out the irrelevant union NLRB noise.

Tesla says the complaint lodged is baseless.

Even if it isn't, though, the typical remedy in cases like that is for the company to cease and desist the offending activities, and compensate the complainants for whatever damages they suffered. It's microscopic to a company Tesla's size. The damage done by the headlines is orders of magnitude more significant than anything a judgment will do.

Well, if it manages to cause a bit of a dip, I'm adding.

 

[Navin]

Love Tesla's response here. This likely came straight from Elon. Applaud Tesla for so many things but there willingness to fight back quickly is at the top of the list.

Tesla takes a swipe at UAW after union filed a complaint with U.S. labor board

 

[hobbes]

Deliveries to East Coast and Midwest employees now being scheduled for late September is very promising news. Good stuff!

Not to spoil the party, I am excited, too - but from where do you take the info that those cars are going east?

This has California as their location: 1st time EV/Tesla owner soon!

The user of this post: Tesla called with Model 3 delivery ETA (Employee) • r/teslamotors
...says he is in Fremont here: Tesla called with Model 3 delivery ETA (Employee) • r/teslamotors

Anyway, the fact that Tesla does make commitments to delivery dates now means that they have insight into how things will be progressing, which wouldn´t be true if they had serious issues to work out.

 

[Reciprocity]

Just did some numbers on this. According to Semi Trucks: By the Numbers - HDS Truck Driving Institute, semis cover 140bn miles per year and have an average fuel economy of 6mpg, for a total fuel consumption of 23.3bn gallons of diesel. At $2.5 per gallon (can't believe how cheap US fuel prices are...), this is a TAM of $59bn. Crazy.

Replacing that with Electricity at 1/2 of the cost and supplying that electricity from the microgrids similar to what Tesla built in Kauai is a recipe for 70% gross margins and $20B net and that is in the US alone. It will certainly take some time to get there, but it all starts with a compelling offering by the end of this month. Utility grade solar+battery with captive audience of Tesla semi's should be very easy to finance with 70% GM. That is some magnificent future risk adjust cash flows if I do say myself.

 

[bdy0627]

Let's see if we get the typical early dip today. Expecting low volume.

 

[EinSV]

Not to spoil the party, I am excited, too - but from where do you take the info that those cars are going east?

This has California as their location: 1st time EV/Tesla owner soon!

The user of this post: Tesla called with Model 3 delivery ETA (Employee) • r/teslamotors
...says he is in Fremont here: Tesla called with Model 3 delivery ETA (Employee) • r/teslamotors

Anyway, the fact that Tesla does make commitments to delivery dates now means that they have insight into how things will be progressing, which wouldn´t be true if they had serious issues to work out.

I was referring to this statement from the Electrek article:

But sources have now confirmed to Electrek that Tesla employees with Model 3 reservations on the other side of the country, in midwestern and eastern states, are now being confirmed “late September” delivery dates.
​

Tesla Model 3 test drives bring laughter at the Gigafactory as deliveries are going east

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Today we'll get the first set of auto/truck monthly sales data from traditional auto manufacturers following the Model 3 deliveries event.

 

[DurandalAI]

I'm sure others have speculated on this, but I think that the negative PR towards Tesla is greater than it is towards other locations where they are attempting to unionize, such as at Nissan, because they know how big of a threat Tesla is to the UAW. When Tesla is doing very well, it means UAW membership will drop as GM/Ford production drops..

I don't know what it is with gasholes who have some sort of problem with me driving a BEV.. Still driving my Leaf while waiting for my Model 3. I was asked, "What will you do when they shut down all the coal plants?" Breathe easier? I dunno, my power doesn't come from coal any more. Sierra club sent me a link to Arcardia Power, where they pay my electric bill for me, they bill me, and then purchase Renewable Energy Credits for my usage. So now I can simply tell them that my Leaf (and soon to be my Leaf and Model 3) are powered by wind. (Coming from their deflating egos?)
Link for interested parties below, get $25 off your first bill. This is how I stick it to "the man."
Arcadia Power | Clean Energy For Anyone

 

[jbcarioca]

... Sierra club sent me a link to Arcardia Power, where they pay my electric bill for me, they bill me, and then purchase Renewable Energy Credits for my usage. So now I can simply tell them that my Leaf (and soon to be my Leaf and Model 3) are powered by wind. (Coming from their deflating egos?)
Link for interested parties below, get $25 off your first bill. This is how I stick it to "the man."
Arcadia Power | Clean Energy For Anyone

I moved to Arcadia too, as a result of Sierra Club. Now I have their wind and solar too.

 

[Navin]

The first of the month is great. Institutional investors get new allocations of capital from investors. Lots of supply of new money looking to invest and our dollars to work. Should flow towards tesla against the current of the usual short high frequency traders.
Invested and holding tight.

 

[Tslynk67]

Google Finance not auto-updating for me, anyone else got the same issue?

 

[MP3Mike]

Google Finance not auto-updating for me, anyone else got the same issue?

The graph seems to, but the numbers don't.

 

[HG Wells]

Same here. Graph updates but date time amount does not.

How am I going to "day trade" without the numbers !

 

[Tslynk67]

The graph seems to, but the numbers don't.

Up-and-running now...

 

[kbM3]

I think the discussions about whether people will value the car versus Camry or BMW is opinionated and boring. I'd prefer it gets its own thread if it must continue.
.

I disagree.
I love these discussions here. If Tesla can sell in Camry numbers it will be huge!

Edit: I just noticed this is the market action thread. They actually would be more pertinent in the general discussion thread.

 

[bdy0627]

In case anyone hadn't noticed, the market action thread really functions as a 2nd general thread with occasional emphasis on market action.

 

[cranker2k]

Just did some numbers on this. According to Semi Trucks: By the Numbers - HDS Truck Driving Institute, semis cover 140bn miles per year and have an average fuel economy of 6mpg, for a total fuel consumption of 23.3bn gallons of diesel. At $2.5 per gallon (can't believe how cheap US fuel prices are...), this is a TAM of $59bn. Crazy.

Sounds like very attractive market to go after business wise, but definitely can make a major dent to emissions. Another benefits is add machine-learnable miles for autonomous driving maybe may other location-based data. I heard many months ago prototypes have been test-driven like sports cars. Along with a solid battery swap/charge service strategy and autopilot - even just current Autopilot that can drive 99% of the roads that truckers do, I can't see it not being overwhelmingly attractive to truck drivers.

If the "sexiness" of the Tesla current models carryover to the semi, then the enthusiasm and hype after the announcement can jack up the stock price significantly, especially if announcement include big commitments from trucking companies and other business partners.

 

[Reciprocity]

Sounds like very attractive market to go after business wise, but definitely can make a major dent to emissions. Another benefits is add machine-learnable miles for autonomous driving maybe may other location-based data. I heard many months ago prototypes have been test-driven like sports cars. Along with a solid battery swap/charge service strategy and autopilot - even just current Autopilot that can drive 99% of the roads that truckers do, I can't see it not being overwhelmingly attractive to truck drivers.

If the "sexiness" of the Tesla current models carryover to the semi, then the enthusiasm and hype after the announcement can jack up the stock price significantly, especially if announcement include big commitments from trucking companies and other business partners.

Truck drivers opinions wont matter much in a few years as their wont be any truck drivers. Some might be used to monitor the fleet in the field and maybe for a few years more driving the last mile in the cities, but none will be driving the open roads in a few short years.