2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ValueAnalyst]

Why say that? Seems gratuitous to me, especially since @notsosure really said nothing other than to affirm the logic behind the screen name. Not everyone needs to be a conformed bull, there is logic supporting healthy skepticism, isn't there?

Ok. Maybe I'm jumping the gun on this, but my first impression from this user's previous posts was that it may be an account positioned less negative from the blatant FUDsters, but still generally following the spreading Doubt mission.

Again, I may be wrong. I retract my statement from the previous post.

 

[notsosure]

Ok. Maybe I'm jumping the gun on this, but my first impression from this user's previous posts was that it may be an account positioned less negative from the blatant FUDsters, but still generally following the spreading Doubt mission.

Again, I may be wrong. I retract my statement from the previous post.

You are just blatantly wrong. I am not spreading doubt. Again, many of my posts are completely against the FUDsters. Forgive me if I actually constructively question certain things about Elon and Tesla when I disagree with approach, or if I have a simple question about upcoming earnings. This is not spreading doubt, rather it is being prudent. I love Tesla’s products and what they mean for the future. But, I thought a forum like this was to do analysis and ask questions. If it is just to spread sunshine and make us all feel good when things could go a little off track, then I am sorry for my innocent question.

 

[jbcarioca]

... But, I thought a forum like this was to do analysis and ask questions. If it is just to spread sunshine and make us all feel good when things could go a little off track, then I am sorry for my innocent question.

Please continue. We need thoughtful perspective.

 

[Doit]

The battle is fierce this morning and I see piles of bulls and bears being transformed into hogs and sheep and gotten devoured in whole.

So far the magic 336 is holing up strong and it's time to go back to the other 6 - 360.

 

[Lump]

GM stock is up pre-market but results reported are horrible.

Talk about spreading FUD.

Beat top & bottom line & raised guidance.
General Motors (GM) Tops Q3 EPS by 19c

Mod edit: The first line is unnecessary. Your point is well taken. Please do not attack even by innuendo another member. That is unnecessary and clogs the thread.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Talk about spreading FUD.

Beat top & bottom line & raised guidance.
General Motors (GM) Tops Q3 EPS by 19c

Results vs. short-term expectations mean nothing. Adjusted EBIT was cut by one-third, and revenue dropped more than 13%. Dig deeper.

http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/gmcom/investor/2017/oct/General-Motors-Q3-2017-earnings.pdf

Profit margin shrank. Cash on hand down. Liquidity down. This negative trend will only deteriorate as Model 3 production ramps up.

Model 3 will mostly be delivered to US-based customers in 2018, but North America is where traditional automakers make most of their profits.

 

[D-egg-O]

Nice little spike there.

 

[Lump]

Results vs. short-term expectations mean nothing. Adjusted EBIT was cut nearly in half, and revenue dropped more than 13%. Dig deeper.
.

So are you short GM based on your critical analysis?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

So are you short GM based on your critical analysis?

I don't short, and I've said before that traditional automakers still have a shot at survival if they can achieve FSD before Tesla.

Also keep in mind that BlackBerry almost doubled right after iPhone was released, before eventually dropping 80-90%.

All I said is that GM's quarterly results are poor despite the headline "all segments profitable." That's a misleading headline, if I've ever seen one.

 

[MitchJi]

Unlike Nevada, the Chinese GF will also produce cars. If in the free trade zone, then this Chinese GF will also likely export to the rest of Asia,Australia, and New Zealand.

Tesla is still in the process of demonstrating that they can build cars. That is why the SP is in the $330's.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Unlike Nevada, the Chinese GF will also produce cars. If in the free trade zone, then this Chinese GF will also likely export to the rest of Asia,Australia, and New Zealand.

Is the bolded sentence a factual statement or an informed opinion? I do think that it is likely, but I'm not sure if Tesla ever confirmed that.

 

[myusername]

pretty sure that 80k volume spike at 10:20 was @TrendTrader007 ... he's a player.

 

[3Victoria]

Tesla is still in the process of demonstrating that they can build cars. That is why the SP is in the $330's.

I don't follow your logic? He was discussing how and why a GF in Shanghai makes sense

 

[Bobbyducati]

a nice little run to 345 would be pretty sweet right now. seems like a lot of fight here

 

[MitchJi]

I would be shocked if Tariff is eliminated. It would undermine the JVs in the rest of China, and giving legitimate gripes to the home countries of all the automakers that signed JVs with Chinese companies.

Maybe reduced some, not eliminated.

What other companies built Gigafactories (batteries) and production lines for 10k EV's per week?

 

[MitchJi]

I don't follow your logic? He was discussing how and why a GF in Shanghai makes sense

He was responding to my post that asked why everyone is assuming that the Chinese Gigafactory will automatically cause the SP to rise.

 

[jbcarioca]

Is the bolded sentence a factual statement or an informed opinion?

I'm not @RobStark but it must be an informed opinion since there is no actual agreement with Shanghai, and that will also require national approval which has not happened. Thus, noting about that is factual at this point.
However, typical Chinese free trade zones are used to produce goods for export precisely because they are not ordinarily permitted duty free sales within China. Auto manufacturers that have achieved duty free status have all, to date, had JV partnerships with Chinese companies. Thus we may be assured that Tesla will export from that factory, the questions are: what they'll export ?; to which destinations? It is not at all in doubt whether they'll export.

What is in doubt it whether Tesla can obtain duty free sale of it's production inside China. Tesla has quite a few advantages, to be sure, that the Chinese government wants to exploit. It may well be that they'll be willing to allow duty free access to Tesla if Tesla will share some technologies with Chinese competitors. Other manufacturers generally try to avoid that, but usually fail. Tesla already has allowed its' patents to anybody who'll use them in good faith. What else might Tesla offer? Help with solar tiles? ...better battery production? ...BMS? ...motor/inverter designs?

I think it will be factual that if Tesla obtains the approvals, Tesla will export. I also think it is factual that if Tesla obtains the approvals there will be some really interesting disclosures that will be extraordinarily positive for TSLA shareholders.

 

[winfield100]

Other than Elon giving positive news on M3 production, is there any chance that next week is a positive ER? We already know that M3 deliveries were well below projections, which should hurt numbers enough to offset the positives on S and X deliveries. The market seems to think the ER will be negative (although, of course, it is frequently wrong on Tesla).

another user to ignore
bye bye
happy investing
Alohaha
Mahalo

 

[jbcarioca]

He was responding to my post that asked why everyone is assuming that the Chinese Gigafactory will automatically cause the SP to rise.

AFAIK, nothing regarding markets is necessarily 'automatic'.
I do think that Tesla getting a factory in China will be a huge force for higher share prices. I also think that the terms will end out providing Tesla with the basis to dramatically increase sales in China. I will go further, if GM can have more than 1/3 of it's sales in China today, Tesla should be able to easily reach 1/3 itself. After all, Tesla produces ONLY BEV's and China is mandating rapid move towards BEV's. Tesla produces the best BEV's, by most reports, and the premium market in China is the world's largest. For cars alone, the China factory will be a huge force to propel Tesla.

it seems to me that that is as close to 'automatic' as anything that could happen.

Obviously it will help immeasurably when Model 3 is being produced in volume and performs well.
Equally obviously, getting EAP to deliver on "E" will also be a great positive.
Both of those points are essential if Tesla is to be successful in China or anywhere else, IMO

 

[JBRR]

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