2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[hobbes]

I have seen in the last months other videos that have the same results. Allow me to politely disagree to your comment.

Also, I guess we have some users here who may be able to talk from experience.

In the future once AP gets more advanced and moves closer to AP4 and finally 5 in a few years we will experience a lot of comments of people who will say its just too good to be true. Disbelieve is a normal reaction in an disruptive environment...

Would be nice if it was true, but I don´t think so. At the moment, they are limited by processing power in the AP computer - do you think they would analyze all surrounding cars´ trajectories with respect to each other when they are still busy negotiating tight corners for just one car? That would add a whole order of magnitude in complexity. In the future - totally possible, but for now - no way. One of the videos even was show out of the rear, I don´t think AP includes the data of the rear camera yet (please correct me if I am wrong here).

 

[avoigt]

Would be nice if it was true, but I don´t think so. At the moment, they are limited by processing power in the AP computer - do you think they would analyze all surrounding cars´ trajectories with respect to each other when they are still busy negotiating tight corners for just one car? That would add a whole order of magnitude in complexity. In the future - totally possible, but for now - no way. One of the videos even was show out of the rear, I don´t think AP includes the data of the rear camera yet (please correct me if I am wrong here).

As a final note: yes accidents are also prevented at the back side of the car. I heard reports and have seen videos about this. Too many videos from different sources are out there that show how that works. I did post some on this side today.

This conversation does not belong here and allow me not to elaborate and respond further but if you are interested in that topic you will find credible information through simple web search..

 

[TradingInvest]

@ mysusername.
Can you please stop this shareprice_ending_in posting.
Create an other thread for your “the shareprice -is-rigged theories if you want, but this is all getting to crazy and very annoying, even for those of us for whom you are invisible.

It certainly does not belong in this market action thread. And neither the roundtable discussion thread.

Gerardf,
mysusername and mmd will not create their own threads. Their goal is not to have a valuable discussion. Their goal is to make this forum useless. So they have to stick with these two main threads. If they create their own threads, nobody will read, then they will be wasting their own time. They know that.

 

[Krugerrand]

I figured out who's buying up to the 6's. it's all beginning to make sense.

Twitter

But there was an 8, 5 & 7 in there, so...um...it’s pinned at 6 except when it’s not?!?

 

[Gerardf]

Gerardf,
mysusername and mmd will not create their own threads. Their goal is not to have a valuable discussion. Their goal is to make this forum useless. So they have to stick with these two main threads. If they create their own threads, nobody will read, then they will be wasting their own time. They know that.

I agree, and I know.

Somehow I hope myusername can take a hint to stop derailing these theads. Part of him seems to enjoy posting on TMC, even when not derailing discussions. If he wants to have this conspiracy theory, fine. Everybody is allowed to have his crazy theory. But If he continues posting about it here I will report to the moderator that these posts do not belong to this thread until action is taken.
Actually I might peek to his thread for entertainment should he indeed start it.

MMD seems to have been asked to stop afer many here mentioned he went to far. Can happen to myusername as well.

 

[Jayjs20]

I've been sitting on some spare change for awhile now. Starting to think it was a bad idea to wait for 300 again to buy more.

 

[erthquake]

I've been sitting on some spare change for awhile now. Starting to think it was a bad idea to wait for 300 again to buy more.

NK just launched another missile apparently. Sit tight. Maybe you'll get your chance. More likely the market will brush off though.

 

[AlMc]

I've been sitting on some spare change for awhile now. Starting to think it was a bad idea to wait for 300 again to buy more.

Personally, I am waiting for whichever comes first: $280 or $320. I suspect I will be buying at $320. I will wait till we have a period of 2-3 days where we have taken and successfully held $320 to confirm a reversal.

Just one man's opinion. I admit that I am wrong as often as right.

 

[Gerardf]

> 100 deliveries today in Norway !
Second best month this year with 870 already ! (Yes better than all LMOQ except September of course)
For Q4 already 1165.

Tesla Registration Stats

 

[bdy0627]

Personally, I am waiting for whichever comes first: $280 or $320. I suspect I will be buying at $320. I will wait till we have a period of 2-3 days where we have taken and successfully held $320 to confirm a reversal.

Just one man's opinion. I admit that I am wrong as often as right.

This is how I approached the stock last year, when it was stuck in the $180-200 range. It was just ping ponging up and down for weeks. I tried buying at times but found myself frustrated when it dipped back down. So, I decided to simply wait until the stock decisively climbed out of that range. I think the level I was waiting for then was around $220. Here we are $100 points later.

 

[dandurston]

This is how I approached the stock last year, when it was stuck in the $180-200 range. It was just ping ponging up and down for weeks. I tried buying at times but found myself frustrated when it dipped back down. So, I decided to simply wait until the stock decisively climbed out of that range. I think the level I was waiting for then was around $220. Here we are $100 points later.

I'm not so sure that avoiding some waiting is worth losing out on some of the inevitable climb. If you would have just bought at $190 (mid point of 180 and 200) instead of keeping the money elsewhere until 220, then sure you'd would have been able to invest elsewhere for a few weeks, but you also missed 1/3 of the gain ($220 to $317 is 44%, $190 to $317 is 67%).

Same goes now. I'm convinced the stock will hit at least $400 in the next year. If you are too, then buying back at $300 would have meant a 33% gain when it hits $400, while waiting to $320 yields 25%. IMO, it's not worth missing out on 8% because the stock might do nothing for a few months. 8% in a few months is a solid return.

Also, this strategy oversimplifies the stock movement into either being stuck, or breaking out. There's no guarantee that cracking $320 means it's break out time. It could easily languish between $320 and $330 for 6 months or top $330 and then dive back down - as it's already done many times. Looking back on 2016, the stock rose out of the 180 - 200 rut and over $220 twice and then faded back down, before finally moving much higher the 3rd time.

Basically, the stock is a wild card in the short term, but if you believe it'll be higher in the long term, then the lower you can buy the better. Waiting for it to go up first doesn't make sense IMO. The lower it gets, the better to buy.

 

[MitchJi]

@ mysusername.
Can you please stop this shareprice_ending_in posting.
Create an other thread for your “the shareprice -is-rigged theories if you want, but this is all getting to crazy and very annoying, even for those of us for whom you are invisible.

It certainly does not belong in this market action thread. And neither the roundtable discussion thread.

Gerardf,
mysusername and mmd will not create their own threads. Their goal is not to have a valuable discussion. Their goal is to make this forum useless. So they have to stick with these two main threads. If they create their own threads, nobody will read, then they will be wasting their own time. They know that.

Could we get some help from the moderator PLEASE!

 

[MitchJi]

Personally, I am waiting for whichever comes first: $280 or $320. I suspect I will be buying at $320. I will wait till we have a period of 2-3 days where we have taken and successfully held $320 to confirm a reversal.

You could get your confirmation by the SP increasing to ~$340 or $350 while you are waiting.

That isn’t even the @TrendTrader007 scenario.

 

[Menifeer]

I'm not so sure that avoiding some waiting is worth losing out on some of the inevitable climb. If you would have just bought at $190 (mid point of 180 and 200) instead of keeping the money elsewhere until 220, then sure you'd would have been able to invest elsewhere for a few weeks, but you also missed 1/3 of the gain ($220 to $317 is 44%, $190 to $317 is 67%).

Same goes now. I'm convinced the stock will hit at least $400 in the next year. If you are too, then buying back at $300 would have meant a 33% gain when it hits $400, while waiting to $320 yields 25%. IMO, it's not worth missing out on 8% because the stock might do nothing for a few months. 8% in a few months is a solid return.

Also, this strategy oversimplifies the stock movement into either being stuck, or breaking out. There's no guarantee that cracking $320 means it's break out time. It could easily languish between $320 and $330 for 6 months or top $330 and then dive back down - as it's already done many times. Looking back on 2016, the stock rose out of the 180 - 200 rut and over $220 twice and then faded back down, before finally moving much higher the 3rd time.

Basically, the stock is a wild card in the short term, but if you believe it'll be higher in the long term, then the lower you can buy the better. Waiting for it to go up first doesn't make sense IMO. The lower it gets, the better to buy.

You might want to consider selling Puts...

Based on today's (Nov 28) closing price of $317.55, the $400 Put of Jan 2019 is trading at about $107, equating to a purchase price of about $293 if forced to buy. You essentially "reserve" the stock at that price and people pay you to do it! If the stock is above $400 in Jan 2019, you'll have to be consoled by just pocketing the $107.

If the stock is below $293, just roll the Put to a more distant date and start the process again.

The ROI calculation is interesting when the "I" is zero...

 

[NZ10K]

You might want to consider selling Puts...

Based on today's (Nov 28) closing price of $317.55, the $400 Put of Jan 2019 is trading at about $107, equating to a purchase price of about $293 if forced to buy. You essentially "reserve" the stock at that price and people pay you to do it! If the stock is above $400 in Jan 2019, you'll have to be consoled by just pocketing the $107.

If the stock is below $293, just roll the Put to a more distant date and start the process again.

The ROI calculation is interesting when the "I" is zero...

I have limited experience on options. Never quite figured out how selling long term puts is a good idea. From the only time I sold put, my broker hold funds in my account equal to the amount of purchasing the underlining stock at the strike price. So as in your example, say you sold 10 puts, then $400K of your funds is tied up hence not usable to invest in anything else, for mroe than a year.

 

[dandurston]

Selling puts does sound quite attractive. The only problem is missing out if the stock really does go to the moon. I guess that's why the net share price works out to less the current stock price.

If I sell a put, can the buyer execute at any time? It would be a hassle to have to free up the funds for an unexpected purchase, but I guess that would still net a win since I'd buying for a net of $293 and could immediately sell for $317. Perhaps buyers CAN execute at any time, but executing early never makes sense because the time value is lost? So it never happens?

Anyways, I can't sell puts because my account in a registered Canadian TFSA and they don't allow it. I'm limited to buying calls.

 

[elasalle]

.

I have limited experience on options. Never quite figured out how selling long term puts is a good idea. From the only time I sold put, my broker hold funds in my account equal to the amount of purchasing the underlining stock at the strike price. So as in your example, say you sold 10 puts, then $400K of your funds is tied up hence not usable to invest in anything else, for mroe than a year.

Sometimes having some funds tied up is a good thing - prevents you from becoming over exzuberrant

best is to try all different strategies. I am selling PUTS so that the costs of the Calls I purchase goes down slightly

 

[Menifeer]

Selling puts does sound quite attractive. The only problem is missing out if the stock really does go to the moon. I guess that's why the net share price works out to less the current stock price.

If I sell a put, can the buyer execute at any time? It would be a hassle to have to free up the funds for an unexpected purchase, but I guess that would still net a win since I'd buying for a net of $293 and could immediately sell for $317. Perhaps buyers CAN execute at any time, but executing early never makes sense because the time value is lost? So it never happens?

Anyways, I can't sell puts because my account in a registered Canadian TFSA and they don't allow it. I'm limited to buying calls.

The Put holder won't exercise until it has no premium (time) value (e.g., the stock is $380 and the $400 Put is priced at $20). That situation likely won't exist until close to the expiration date.

 

[RiverCard]

I have limited experience on options. Never quite figured out how selling long term puts is a good idea. From the only time I sold put, my broker hold funds in my account equal to the amount of purchasing the underlining stock at the strike price. So as in your example, say you sold 10 puts, then $400K of your funds is tied up hence not usable to invest in anything else, for mroe than a year.

IRS regs require short puts be cash covered in qualified accounts (IRAs). Same for after-tax cash accounts. In after-tax, margin accounts, short puts can be sold with sufficient margin to cover the exchange's rules. For CBOE it's:

100% of option proceeds plus 20% of underlying security/index value less out-of-the-money amount, if any, to a minimum of option proceeds plus 10% of underlying security/index value for calls; 10% of the put exercise price for puts.
​

Strategy-based Margin

 

[AlMc]

I'm not so sure that avoiding some waiting is worth losing out on some of the inevitable climb. If you would have just bought at $190 (mid point of 180 and 200) instead of keeping the money elsewhere until 220, then sure you'd would have been able to invest elsewhere for a few weeks, but you also missed 1/3 of the gain ($220 to $317 is 44%, $190 to $317 is 67%).

Same goes now. I'm convinced the stock will hit at least $400 in the next year. If you are too, then buying back at $300 would have meant a 33% gain when it hits $400, while waiting to $320 yields 25%. IMO, it's not worth missing out on 8% because the stock might do nothing for a few months. 8% in a few months is a solid return.

Also, this strategy oversimplifies the stock movement into either being stuck, or breaking out. There's no guarantee that cracking $320 means it's break out time. It could easily languish between $320 and $330 for 6 months or top $330 and then dive back down - as it's already done many times. Looking back on 2016, the stock rose out of the 180 - 200 rut and over $220 twice and then faded back down, before finally moving much higher the 3rd time.

Basically, the stock is a wild card in the short term, but if you believe it'll be higher in the long term, then the lower you can buy the better. Waiting for it to go up first doesn't make sense IMO. The lower it gets, the better to buy.

I agree. The point is having a strategy and unless something fundamentally changes along the way to stick with it.