2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[gtrplyr1]

In response to the question of what Tesla's identity as a company is .... while one may have trouble pinning them down to any one thing I will say to call them only a "car company" shows an incredible lack of ability to see the bigger picture.

As a person who just had 24 solar panels installed , by Solar City, I can attest to the fact that solar energy in housing is the future. Financially speaking, it's a no brainer for new construction and here in CA we are seeing that as a feature offered on most new communities. Furthermore, when it comes to batteries Tesla's Powerwall is in a league of it's own. Tesla's future in green energy will be very bright ... AND they do NOT have to corner the market as the market is large and there will be many winners.

Finally with all of this negative talk surrounding the model 3 build. I was dumbfounded to hear some of the bigger analysts and old school car manufacturing gurus refer to the Model 3 build issues as insurmountable .... Elon and company found a way to re-use a rocket and have it land on a barge !!! I'm gonna bet they will be able to align the door panels on a car. Many out there simply don't get it ... and never will.

The biggest problem any company has is creating a demand for it's products ... Tesla has taken over 400,000 reservations on a car that people had never seen nor driven .... they now have a substantial amount of reservations on a Semi that won't see production till 2019 at best ...... and there is a waitlist for the roof tiles ....

Yes there will be delay's and issues but once the demand is there , and it is, the other things can and will be sorted out. Very happy to have a lot of money tied up in TSLA !!!!

 

[Starno]

cool... where's the parking lot with the other 34,880 cars?

In your ....


just kidding just kidding

 

[sunhelm]

what about Tesla is successful outside of the MX and MS? According to you and @neroden, Tesla is 10 companies in 1. But, where are these companies you keep going on about for years? The Tesla Mobility Ride Share Company... how's that going?... how's the full autonomy thing going?... how's the profits in Solar City going?... how's the PowerWall selling?

for years now these claims have been made. but there is hard evidence that these ideas are not material and sustainable... and were just ideas.

Tesla is an auto company, and it will be valued like one.

I think this is the heart of the difference between your view and a majority of us here. You don't believe in the likelihood that these things will materialize at a substantive and profitable margin. You therefore think investors are duped into buying the stock at an unjustifiable price point.

The flip side is we do see these things will and are materializing so we invest on that premise. My due diligence says this company has and will deliver on their lofty goals.

 

[NZ10K]

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I think this is the heart of the difference between your view and a majority of us here. You don't believe in the likelihood that these things will materialize at a substantive and profitable margin. You therefore think investors are duped into buying the stock at an unjustifiable price point.

The flip side is we do see these things will and are materializing so we invest on that premise. My due diligence says this company has and will deliver on their lofty goals.

Exactly.

Investing in stock market requires vision and acting ahead of the curve, and taking the risks of course. When you can see fore sure these promises are about to happen, they will have been baked in the SP. I guess the question is whether you want to catch the SP appreciation in the speculation stage, or in the earning-driven stage (like AAPL are in now).

 

[dc_h]

cool... where's the parking lot with the other 34,880 cars?

Spread out in driveways around the world.

 

[ktrivedi70]

I really have to stop clicking on 'show ignored content'. That's like 30 seconds of my life utterly wasted. Stupid, stupid, stupid,,,,,,,,

 

[winfield100]

I really have to stop clicking on 'show ignored content'. That's like 30 seconds of my life utterly wasted. Stupid, stupid, stupid,,,,,,,,

except when you click "show ignored content" non sequitors and incomprehensible replies make sense.

 

[dc_h]

Is Elon expecting a Christmas rally? That’s his latest Instagram post.

 

[ktrivedi70]

except when you click "show ignored content" non sequitors and incomprehensible replies make sense.

No, I still find those viewpoints to be incomprehensible and their statements to be non-sequitors.

 

[myusername]

I think this is the heart of the difference between your view and a majority of us here. You don't believe in the likelihood that these things will materialize at a substantive and profitable margin. You therefore think investors are duped into buying the stock at an unjustifiable price point.

The flip side is we do see these things will and are materializing so we invest on that premise. My due diligence says this company has and will deliver on their lofty goals.

like powerpack, powerwall, mobility and solar roofs? I'm not even sure what the goals are at this point. 2.5 years ago demand for the PowerWall was "off the hook"... 2.5 years. now all the sudden Tesla is going to become a chip maker because the current hardware isn't going to work. there's an Australia powerpack installation... great... how much revenue was that?... what's a powerwall again?

do you guys even have expected timelines for any of these things anymore?

 

[Tslynk67]

I have to admit, @myusername, that you've a very thick skin, very impressive

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I have to admit, @myusername, that you've a very thick skin, very impressive

not too impressive once you read this: The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles | HuffPost

 

[Reciprocity]

I have to admit, @myusername, that you've a very thick skin, very impressive

Bought and paid for..

You can tell because even though we have explained that you should not look at what Elon has promised but what Elon has delivered. If you only read what Elon has promised, then you would probably be pretty pissed that he never seems to deliver on time. But if you look back at what has been accomplished then you would realize that Elon is usually a few months late and might not get every feature he promised but its still 10x better and 10 years ahead of anyone else.. even though the only competition is the Bolt? Everything else is a powerpoint set for the magical year of 2020.

Did Elon cut the cost of rocket launches to 1/10th? No but next year they will have over 50% of the launches and prices rival the cheapest available anywhere on the planet. But its fraud because Elon didnt deliver! Ask the stock holders if they feel defrauded.

Model S is around 40% of the large luxury sedan market in the US and the Model X is about 10%, if you include X5, which should probably not be included. If that is not delivering then I dont know what is. I expect similar for the model 3, but only faster. It took Tesla 4-5 years to get 40% market share. Those are real results, not promises. Model 3 should do the same in 2-3 years.

 

[MitchJi]

May we duplicate last year's chart from this point out. $600 by June!

And $450 by July?

 

[myusername]

Bought and paid for..

You can tell because even though we have explained that you should not look at what Elon has promised but what Elon has delivered. If you only read what Elon has promised, then you would probably be pretty pissed that he never seems to deliver on time. But if you look back at what has been accomplished then you would realize that Elon is usually a few months late and might not get every feature he promised but its still 10x better and 10 years ahead of anyone else.. even though the only competition is the Bolt? Everything else is a powerpoint set for the magical year of 2020.

Did Elon cut the cost of rocket launches to 1/10th? No but next year they will have over 50% of the launches and prices rival the cheapest available anywhere on the planet. But its fraud because Elon didnt deliver! Ask the stock holders if they feel defrauded.

Model S is around 40% of the large luxury sedan market in the US and the Model X is about 10%, if you include X5, which should probably not be included. If that is not delivering then I dont know what is. I expect similar for the model 3, but only faster. It took Tesla 4-5 years to get 40% market share. Those are real results, not promises. Model 3 should do the same in 2-3 years.

let's not talk about rockets... that has nothing to do with Tesla.

so let's talk about cars... and that's exactly what I said above about 10 posts ago... what OTHER THAN the MS and MX has Tesla done that qualifies them to be 10 companies in 1 as @neroden suggested above?

my entire point is that Tesla is an auto company... great... i think we finally agree on something @Reciprocity .

 

[justin w]

Bitcoin or alt cyptocurrency are the greatest invention of this century. This things keep going up and uppity up up. No bubble if you invest in cpyto..

Tesla is a real bubble.

I've said this before.. Tesla can only post wonderful picture like the recent picture that showed a parking lot filled with hundreds of M3 cars. Dont be fooled. Tesla has only delivered 700+ car M3 thus far. By end of this year, the total will be 900-1000, at best. A far cry from EM's 20k M3 in dec alone.

 

[neroden]

except that it DOES NOT do these things and there's an incredibly high percentage that it never will. if the idea is that there will be no more oil companies, no more fuel storage companies, no more fuel dispensers, etc... because Tesla will have replaced them ALL is what I would consider a childhood fantasy. but I'm pretty sure you're not a child... so I simply don't know how to categorize this mentality.

Tesla is an auto company. The solar business was failed and absorbed... the "roof" thing is non-existent... the PowerWall/PowerPack thing is NON-EXISTENT. these things aren't real. what is real is that Tesla is an auto company. and that's it.

OK, myusername, you're delusional. You're literally and explicitly claiming that the "biggest battery in the world" in South Australia, the installs on the outlying islands of Puerto Rico, the install on Kauai, the install on Tau, the install in the winery in California, etc., are "non-existent" and "aren't real"?

You should consider opening your eyes sometime, because that's delusional talk. I think you may need psychiatric help if you really think that those large, existing installations "aren't real". What do you think is going on, some kind of conspiracy with faked photographs? Do you think the moon landing was faked, too?

I bothered to sit down and analyze the stationary battery business. Tesla has some competition -- mostly AES, a few others -- but demand exceeds the total supply, and there is solid evidence that Tesla is the low-cost producer. Maybe it's not a business with great margins, but you are denying that it *exists*, which is insane.

 

[TradingInvest]

And $450 by July?

Shorts have been reading our posts, confirmed by some long time shorts. Maybe we should find a better way to communicate. It would be unfortunate if those shorts cover right before each rally. Maybe I should create an email list. I would block all the shorts and paid bashers from signing up.

 

[myusername]

OK, myusername, you're delusional. You're literally and explicitly claiming that the "biggest battery in the world" in South Australia, the installs on the outlying islands of Puerto Rico, the install on Kauai, the install on Tau, the install in the winery in California, etc., are "non-existent" and "aren't real"?

You should consider opening your eyes sometime, because that's delusional talk. I think you may need psychiatric help if you really think that those large, existing installations "aren't real". What do you think is going on, some kind of conspiracy with faked photographs? Do you think the moon landing was faked, too?

no. it's real. how much revenue is it is what I asked. so how much is it?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Model S is around 40% of the large luxury sedan market in the US and the Model X is about 10%, if you include X5, which should probably not be included. If that is not delivering then I dont know what is. I expect similar for the model 3, but only faster. It took Tesla 4-5 years to get 40% market share. Those are real results, not promises. Model 3 should do the same in 2-3 years.

I think 40% of the market will demand the Model 3 in 2-3 years, but can Tesla produce two million Model 3's in 2020?