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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Well I was lucky enough to buy 10 Dec 15 330's lottery tickets last week (at 65 cents).

I have never had a win on lottery tickets before so I have a question.

I am planning on waiting till friday. Should I start cashing out friday morning or how late in the day is it safe to do it ?
If its 3:45 PM est and I close at market can it fail to go through ?
AlMc's suggestion is good. Another idea you can do (in conjunction with or in addition to) is to short some calls against the ones you bought to make a spread. You can sell weekly $335s for $2.55 as of last closing price and/or $340s for ~$1.35. This allows for some further gains but will buffer any losses if we stall our or go back down. Both of these lock in more than you paid.

If you want to get super fancy you could double short the $340 strike and buy the $350s to create a butterfly using the $330 as your bottom leg. You would win huge if we end Friday near $340 in this case.

The perfect choice will only be seen in hindsight but your idea is good to do something to book profit and/or reduce risk.

Edit: You should fully understand these things before trying them.
 
Have you ever had this much of your portfolio in a single stock? If so, was it a company that had only been publicly traded for 8 years? Just curious.
Yes, and no, respectively.

My family never owns more than 20 stocks (you can't pay attention to more than that), so we tend to be highly concentrated. I've ended up with >33% in one stock, on three different occasions, due to that stock doing much better than the rest of the portfolio. (In each case I deconcentrated when the stock hit somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the portfolio.) All three stocks had much, much longer track records. I'm not actually that concentrated in Tesla *stock* (under 30%), but Tesla is also *much* more volatile than any of those three, and I am that concentrated if I include the short puts.

The volatility normally wouldn't bother me except that I have substantial cash expenses coming up, which is the point at which volatility becomes an issue. I don't want to be forced to sell at a bad time due to needing the cash.

I probably have enough cash but it's backing cash-secured puts on TSLA, so I would strongly prefer that those expire. (Normally I'm fine if they execute.) They were in-the-money for a few weeks, but are now back out of the money again, thankfully. The Republican tax scam bill makes this problem worse, because normally in this situation I'd let them execute and sell the resulting stock as needed, but if they force FIFO on us then I'd have to sell my old lots instead and pay unnecessary taxes, which means I have to actually close the options positions before execution. :-( Which loses me time value and creates potential losses if there's a "one day drop" on expiration day when I try to close it.

One of my very short list of other investments right now is a merger arb which got delayed substantially; I was expecting it to cash out, or for the merger to be cancelled, months ago. It makes no sense to do anything but wait and see with it (it either merges or it doesn't, but it makes no sense to sell before it's determined one way or the other), but it has been cramping my cash flow planning. (Even if the merger *fails* and I have to sell it at a loss it would alleviate my cash flow issue, but it's tied up while I'm waiting.) For the curious, the delay is caused by the Trump administration, which has simply failed to staff the committees which would approve or disapprove the merger.

While I can certainly borrow the money to get me through this period, my family's allergic to debt, probably unreasonably so. We really don't like paying carrying costs; it keeps me up at night. So this cash flow situation has made me uncomfortable. To be clear, it's the potential for needing to borrow money (to avoid selling at the wrong time) which makes me uncomfortable, *not* the position concentration.

I'm more overextended than you I believe, but working with a much, much, much smaller amount of money.
However, you probably have income from a *job*. My primary source of income is investments, and nothing I'm invested in pays a dividend any more, so if I have expenses, it means I'm selling something or I'm borrowing to avoid selling something -- and the only way to deleverage is to sell something.
 
I probably have enough cash but it's backing cash-secured puts on TSLA, so I would strongly prefer that those expire. (Normally I'm fine if they execute.) They were in-the-money for a few weeks, but are now back out of the money again, thankfully. The Republican tax scam bill makes this problem worse, because normally in this situation I'd let them execute and sell the resulting stock as needed, but if they force FIFO on us then I'd have to sell my old lots instead and pay unnecessary taxes, which means I have to actually close the options positions before execution. :-( Which loses me time value and creates potential losses if there's a "one day drop" on expiration day when I try to close it.

Off topic from market action, but have you looked into creating a corporation and transferring your investments into it? If you are the owner of the corporation I do not think the transfer counts as a sale, and it might allow for more favorable tax treatment than having investments remain personal assets. I am interested myself and wanting to do this if it's beneficial, so I am interested in any information or advice anyone can offer.
 
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Thank you Jonathan Hewitt and AIMC.
I like your ideas. I think I'm going to do the following.

On Monday (depending on the market) I'm going to close one fourth of my calls.
I'm also going to sell a single 340, just to get the experience.

On Wednesday (depending on the market) close another 25% of my calls.

Then on Friday morning I'll close all the remaining calls.
 
Thank you Jonathan Hewitt and AIMC.
I like your ideas. I think I'm going to do the following.

On Monday (depending on the market) I'm going to close one fourth of my calls.
I'm also going to sell a single 340, just to get the experience.

On Wednesday (depending on the market) close another 25% of my calls.

Then on Friday morning I'll close all the remaining calls.

And if the $340 you sold is at or near being in the money, don't forget to buy it back unless you wish to sell 100 shares at $340
 
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Well I was lucky enough to buy 10 Dec 15 330's lottery tickets last week (at 65 cents).

I have never had a win on lottery tickets before so I have a question.

I am planning on waiting till friday. Should I start cashing out friday morning or how late in the day is it safe to do it ?
If its 3:45 PM est and I close at market can it fail to go through ?
I would not wait until Friday. Sell into strength over the next three days, selling two to four times (half now and then later, or 1/4 or 1/3 now, then maybe the same fraction each succeeding day.) The worst feeling you'll get this way is you should have made more money than the lots of money you did make. Most times I have tried to time the lottery tickets to the hour, burnsville. Sell into strength and enjoy.
 
What a fun day! It's nice to be rewarded for being patient.:)
Yup. Awesome day. My best day ever. Portfolio up 11.5%, almost 3/4 of that from TSLA stock and short puts.

Plus I got everything set on my Model 3 order, which will finalize tomorrow. Delivery estimated in four weeks, but we'll see how it actually goes.
 
Off topic from market action, but have you looked into creating a corporation and transferring your investments into it? If you are the owner of the corporation I do not think the transfer counts as a sale, and it might allow for more favorable tax treatment than having investments remain personal assets. I am interested myself and wanting to do this if it's beneficial, so I am interested in any information or advice anyone can offer.
I haven't looked into it, though I have considered it long-term. Since the timeframe for the positions I'm dealing with right now is *January* I don't think it's possible to do this with them in that timeframe; it takes weeks to publish the legal notices for starting a corporation. I wish the Republicans wouldn't try to ram through massive tax law changes two weeks before they take effect; it makes planning very hard. :mad: Normal tax law changes have many months of notice.
 
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Yes, and no, respectively.

My family never owns more than 20 stocks (you can't pay attention to more than that), so we tend to be highly concentrated. I've ended up with >33% in one stock, on three different occasions, due to that stock doing much better than the rest of the portfolio. (In each case I deconcentrated when the stock hit somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of the portfolio.) All three stocks had much, much longer track records. I'm not actually that concentrated in Tesla *stock* (under 30%), but Tesla is also *much* more volatile than any of those three, and I am that concentrated if I include the short puts.

The volatility normally wouldn't bother me except that I have substantial cash expenses coming up, which is the point at which volatility becomes an issue. I don't want to be forced to sell at a bad time due to needing the cash.

... My primary source of income is investments, and nothing I'm invested in pays a dividend any more, so if I have expenses, it means I'm selling something or I'm borrowing to avoid selling something -- and the only way to deleverage is to sell something.
I do remember an old Malcolm Forbes quotation "you never lose money if you don't sell". Obviously there were caveats.
My income is derived almost totally from investments. I maintain high liquidity, but most of it is in sovereign risk high yield securities that I cannot sell without incurring large capital gains. For the first time in many years I have two stocks that together account for >70% of my total public shareholdings. Altogether publicly traded shares are roughly 50% of my total wealth.

Until 2018, assuming the US Senate version goes through, I have been able to manage taxes well because there was reciprocal treatment with US Federal tax liability on most of my non-US assets, >60% of the total. Under either version, if they happen, I will have some major restructuring required to avoid large new tax liability. The ability to use LIFO has been a substantial benefit for me. If that goes away, and foreign tax credits follow the pattern for US State tax credits, my tax advisors anticipate that I'll have very little time to restructure.

With only a couple of weeks to go for us to know I am still doing nothing. Should either of the planned versions pass it seems highly probable that many dual citizens will eliminate direct US holdings, while others will sell and repurchase substantial holdings to eliminate potentially draconian risks based on jurisdictional conflicts.

The markets will be very active and volatile if one of these pass within the next two weeks. From what I see TSLA will be less affected than most others, but quite a few people in situations like mine will sell FIFO to the extent that we have offsets we can use this year.My own contingency plan is made, so I can act quickly.

Whether intended or not either one of these plans or the most probable compromises will make dramatic changes in tax strategies for most multi-nation taxpayers. Bluntly, I expect either will greatly encourage movement of US-based businesses offshore.

Larger public companies will have interesting dual strategies to move investments offshore while positioning those as increases of domestic employment.

Whatever happens TSLA volatility will increase quite substantially following an actual passage.

Longer term I think the impact for TSLA will be nearly neutral. Bears will proclaim disaster and quote chapter and verse. Bulls will continue as we are doing. Tesla will thrive.
China will grow to be about 50% of total TSLA sales.
 
TSLA often gives back after a strong day like yesterday. Don't be surprised if there's a bit of retrenching/consolidation today. The 100-semi order is great, but TSLA is still a delicate stock when there is no solid news from the company.


Agree. Though I've got to say TSLA often runs better on rumors than on news. The buy the rumor sell the news effect is real with TSLA.

I feel like as long as the rumor is in the air, it will keep pushing the SP forward.
 
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