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2019 Electrek Video: Elon promises FSD For three minutes straight
- Thread starter 2101Guy
- Start date
“We will have robotaxis operating with NO ONE IN THEM by next year (2019).”
This guy.
This guy.
I think the worst parts are the claims around Tesla superiority and trying to incite FOMO while charging thousands of dollars. If all you need is a camera suite and some software to pull this off, I don't think Tesla will have an insane lead over any competitors. And if Robotaxis are such a boon to human safety, can save lives, can reduce waste and pollution etc, they need to not have an insane lead over any competitors so we can get this to as many people as quickly as possible and have the biggest impact like now.
The whole industry has been massively overly optimistic about this tech and Elon definitely isn't alone in still doubling down on unrealistic promises even in 2021-2022, but his schtick stinks particularly badly.
The whole industry has been massively overly optimistic about this tech and Elon definitely isn't alone in still doubling down on unrealistic promises even in 2021-2022, but his schtick stinks particularly badly.
Objectively Tesla does have superiority in self driving systems offered to consumers. This has been independently verified.
Autopilot/FSD give consumers access to the most, there is zero doubt about that.
If you looked under the hood, I think you'd find the systems are closer than it appears but that other brands are far more conservative in what they deploy and more careful in the steps they're taking.
You think but you have no idea other than a gut feeling. TAKE IT TO THE BANK AND CASH IT DOG
Could call it an educated gut feeling.
But you can buy a $1k aftermarket kit from comma.ai that will supposedly match Autopilot's capabilities when added to their list of compatible vehicles and who claim they'll be 1-2 years behind Tesla in achieving full autonomy, so I have zero doubt that the big boys can do a lot more.
In 2018 (when he made that statement in the video), there is no way he honestly, actually, truly believed that by 2019, there literally would be Tesla's on the nations roads driving around on their own, with NO ONE in the cars, performing actual taxi services.
I refuse to believe he honestly thought that would happen. Not the guy who has led the world in landing rockets right side up.
I refuse to believe he honestly thought that would happen. Not the guy who has led the world in landing rockets right side up.
Well technology for reusable rockets and vertical landings dates back to the 1980s and 90s, successful commercialization is a different story. But it had been done before.
Full autonomy has never been done before.
Understood.
But my underlying opinion still stands. I refuse to believe, that a man as smart as him, as hands on as he has been with Tesla from day one, believed that there literally would be "thousands" of teslas running around on public roads with NO ONE INSIDE (his words), generating taxi revenue in 2019. No, I dont believe that he truly believed that. (But his statements did get a lot of people to pay for FSD)
Yup I don't disagree it's hard to imagine unintentionally being that wrong, just trying to play a bit of devil's advocate here
I would guess that the percentage of new customers willing to pay for FSD reduces each time the price goes up.
Also sure that in Elon's mind he's looking at the fully finished FSD as being the Robotaxi vision - and that is what he's basing his future value.
Sadly that is not going to be in the lifetime of my current car.
Also sure that in Elon's mind he's looking at the fully finished FSD as being the Robotaxi vision - and that is what he's basing his future value.
Sadly that is not going to be in the lifetime of my current car.
I know it. You know it. 91% of the TMC members polled know it. Media knows it.
And Im sure...he knows it too.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
And here we have the long argued issue, is he knowingly lying, or simply over optimistic (who else has ever had that benefit of the doubt, specially after being wrong or saying things that are provably wrong?)
What does the FSD program report to the board/Elon? Do they say that its not possible and Elon says itll happen anyway? Or do they simply go along
with what he says? Or do they give optimistic BS answers that he runs with? Are people afraid to say no? Are they keel hauled? What's the real story?
I mean, I think we all can agree that if his message then would have instead been:
"look, I want to set expectations in a realistic manner. Robotaxi service is a tough problem but Im committed to solving it, but to be transparent, it's going to take us several years to solve and put into place in a manner that is considered safe enough for public roads"
Then not nearly as many persons would have purchased FSD. A true marketing person knows to sell the dream, even if the marketer knows its not true/viable/realistic. So instead of above, you say "in a year? Robotaxi will be a real thing. with NO ONE in the cars. And you the owners will be making money off of it, and the value of your tesla is almost incalculable it will be so high".
And voila. Thousands buy FSD.
Each time the price goes up and each time someone buys their next Tesla. Ie I suspect the return FSD buyer rate has been declining too.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You should checkout my Consumer AV tracking thread.
I wanted to understand the state of the industry and started the thread. You can see that apart from Tesla, 3 more OEMs will try to get to city driving soon. On the highway couple of them have similar capability.
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