Disagree. There are many more buyers for used Model 3 currently than the supply for this recently released model. Demand and supply will always adjust with pricing.
S & X have recently been down priced, and up optioned. The new Ravens are great value. This will ultimately result in better pricing for those used in the marketplace.
I have always found it interesting how while many only buy used cars, others only buy new ones. Seems sometimes like they are two different markets. Not much cross shopping done new vs used.
I completely disagree with you. I hope you don’t make this assumption based off Tesla’s used inventory. Cause if you are you greatly misunderstand the actual number of model 3’s for sale now and going forward.
Tesla inventory is 95% lease returns and 5%trade ins. No one leases a Model 3 because of several pretty obvious reasons. Demographic; the average consumer that buys a Model 3 is not like one who buys an S or X or any luxury car. Most have intentions keeping it and or understand that leasing is what rich people do not just cuz they want a new car every year but because they usually are their own boss meaning they own a business and it is a write off since they delegate it as a business expense. Than there are always the buyers who do want a new car every year and they are not the ones buying a model 3. So don’t use Tesla’s used inventory as any type of justification. Not that you did but most who don’t get it would cuz they see that there are hardly any.
The amount of 3’s for sale now is already a lot and will grow 3x in the next year and even more the year after. With more and more EV’s coming many will be interested in trying something different especially if no significant changes have been made which there won’t be with the addition of the Y, And Truck.
One major reason you will see a lot for sale is due to the fact that most owners never got the perks of free unlimited charging for life so keeping it for the long haul is much less likely especially when you can bet those perks will be available with the addition of more competition. So many owners will sell them just to get those perks that most manufacturers and definitely Tesla will be offering. It is one of the biggest selling points for many who buy an X or S.
What’s going to make the value decrease even more significantly is several things. The price will continue to drop not only because it will be cheaper to make which Tesla needs to increase their margins but they won’t get the chance too. They will be competing with so many other ev’s that as the cost to make it goes down so will the price of a brand new one to stay relevant and competitive in pricing. The biggest factor is the additional market will be flooded with evs and since it’s such a newer technology the advancements will continue to get better and better making older Models almost obsolete to a certain extent. They won’t be obsolete on the level of computers, phones etc but the money that will be invested by every major auto manufacturer is going to push the limits of creating a better and better batteries etc, something that is all new to a market that never had competition before.
Now the car itself will be similar to a Honda I personally believe as far as how long they will be able to run, but the cost of making one or buying let’s say a salvage one or one with extremely high miles won’t be a deterrent since the costs of that battery will be a fraction of the cost it once ones. Even with how impressive the 2170 cells are, they won’t be in 2 yrs as enormous amounts of money will be flooding in from all manufactures trying to keep making them better which they will. The next 2yrs it will be a joke if an ev doesn’t have a minimum of 400 miles of range and upwards of 600 easily.
The big difference with evs is that it’s so new, or was new but those days are gone. With more restrictions on smog etc the ev industry will account for 80% of all cars on the road, much sooner than most will ever imagine or want to accept if they are some ice obsessors like too many are. And almost every manufacturer is not going to be looking to make luxury evs, they are going to go straight after the 3’s market and rightfully so, to make them as affordable as possible. There will be the Porsches and other high end evs but most will be battling to make the most cost effective ev that the most buyers can afford.
So you can bet your life that the Model 3 will be extremely cheap, not because it’s not a great car but because it is and so many have sold and those will be expendable due to supply and being inferior in a relatively short time. Now if you think the FSD will have any advantages I can promise you it won’t have any at all. By the time, and I mean probably a decade once they will really allow FSD cars driving, every car will have the ability to be FSD at a very low price point. This is for many reasons, obviously technological advancement, but more importantly to really have safe roads with FSD cars you need to have the majority if not all be FSD. This however won’t be any reason to effect the price etc cause it’s going to be a very long time before they really allow FSD cars on streets.
One thing Tesla has that no one can still touch is their Supercharging network. Which will make them still a priority when buying but will not keep them from deprecating a ton.
Tesla had a huge head start but it won’t be easy for them to be anywhere near what they have been. It’s just not possible, simply because of competition and not due to being inferior or anything like that.
I honestly cannot wait till you are able to buy different batteries and finally start being able to upgrade your battery yourself which will happen sooner than later (batteries that are compatible), and build your own custom ev. I believe most manufacturers and especially Tesla will make their evs going forward with the importance of leaving room for newer better batteries to be installed in all cars. Something they needed to have thought about when they made the X and S and they most definitely learned from that mistake.
So to sum it up I think the Model 3 will depreciate a ton but if it does just keep it. It will still last close to 500k and even perhaps a million miles. The hard part will be when newer evs come out and offer unlimited charging