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3Q18 Model 3 Production - Take 2
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
- Start date
Of course I’m serious, That target was originally last year, then q1, then q2. My point is the pro Tesla lobby think they hit the target, they didn’t, they kept just kept moving the date until it happened. Q1 was when the good times were meant to happen. The timescales are a part of the target. I get tired of people thinking musk has never missed a target, it’s just taken x months longer (EAP, FSD, M3 production, etc). That’s rubbish, miss the date, you’ve missed the target.
Some of us don’t care whether they hit the date or not. As long as he eventually comes through. We look at the bigger picture. That being, he is fulfilling the mission statement. Albeit later than he estimated, but I’m able to overlook that because everything that HAS been and continues to be accomplished is still incredible.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
6 months late not 15 years.
And at least 5 years ahead of everybody else.
7k BEVs per week with EPA 200 miles plus range.
9 months late based on optimistic schedule and 6 months ahead of the plan is record schedule!
"it's important to remind people that when Model 3 was unveiled, their target production rates were 5k/wk by the end of 2018 and 10k/week by end of 2020"
r/teslamotors - Friendly Reminder that Elon Musk's original production goal during the Model 3 Unveiling was 5k/wk by late 2018, 10k/wk by 2020.
You’re posting in the investors discussions area and timescales are important to investment as they determine calculations on cash burn, income profiles, ability to invest etc etc., The share price seems to correlate with my analysis too whether you like it or not.
I’d agree with you if musk laid out a 5 year plan and targets 3 years into that were late, but he predicts targets only a month or two into the future and misses them by some way. It was only in Nov did he admit they’d not do 5k every week by the end of the year, moving it to March. That became a June date and a peak rate (which he’d actually changed to 6k peak to do 5k sustained) and yet to been seen reliably. It’s still amazing, but it’s still woeful communication and forecasting..
The famous FSD post 18 months ago that it would have some features in 3 months, 6 definitely and a 18 months later we have nothing.
You can love what change he’s bringing while still finding his inability to call sensible timelines a totally frustrating characteristic. Time does matter to investors.
I’d agree with you if musk laid out a 5 year plan and targets 3 years into that were late, but he predicts targets only a month or two into the future and misses them by some way. It was only in Nov did he admit they’d not do 5k every week by the end of the year, moving it to March. That became a June date and a peak rate (which he’d actually changed to 6k peak to do 5k sustained) and yet to been seen reliably. It’s still amazing, but it’s still woeful communication and forecasting..
The famous FSD post 18 months ago that it would have some features in 3 months, 6 definitely and a 18 months later we have nothing.
You can love what change he’s bringing while still finding his inability to call sensible timelines a totally frustrating characteristic. Time does matter to investors.
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The ramp definitely went a lot worse than expected. But still, Tesla has executed mostly according to the revised guidance from January 3rd. They fell a bit short of 2500/wk at the end of Q1, but hit 5000/wk at the end of Q2. If Tesla hits 10k/wk at the end of Q2 2019, instead of the end of Q4 2018, like indicated in 2017, the troubled ramp will mostly be forgotten.
You're obviously not familiar with project planning such as the massive scale and lead time required to deliver 5k cars per week. If you had a boss who said they have arranged with many vendors and created a company wide plan to deliver a product which required 2 years and 9 months, then based on demand pulled in that schedule by 12 months, you'd appreciate what is happening now. Tesla has effectively delivered 6 months ahead of that original schedule and in the process set themselves up for success with model Y.
Tesla is in good shape with the model Y if that car was completely designed along with the Model 3. This would mean that the model 3 contains some design compromises to easily accommodate the future model Y. This would mean many shared parts.
The Chevy Bolt, for example, has connection points on the body for some future unknown car. This is how professionals plan for efficient and tentless production.
With Musk it is always uncertain if the correct choice will be made when the right choice is simple and conservative. If Musk insists on improving the model Y then adding that model easily and in a timely manner is unlikely.
The Chevy Bolt, for example, has connection points on the body for some future unknown car. This is how professionals plan for efficient and tentless production.
With Musk it is always uncertain if the correct choice will be made when the right choice is simple and conservative. If Musk insists on improving the model Y then adding that model easily and in a timely manner is unlikely.
Variations in the body line have nothing to do with GA line.
But if you want to talk commonality, does anyone other than Tesla have the same frame for RWD/AWD LHD/RHD?
BMW, Jaguar, Mercedes, well, lets just say any model that has a 2 and a 4 wheel option will use typically use the same frame. It would probably be harder to find a company that didn't and there are plenty of makes of car that have both 2 and 4 wheel drive and pretty much all cater for LHD and RHD.
If only you knew the truth. An argument that a task is difficult is a perfectly valid reason to say there are complexities, risks, interdepencies, and so on and that a 3 year plan may slip. It's not an excuse for bad planning and not understanding when you are 6 weeks from a target that you're nowhere near. They had some pretty way off assumptions if they needed the tent. They decided to use robots when a tent of people were more efficient, how did that happen? There's no kanban there, no working out the critical path and mitigating the risk, no use of experts in the field that turn out production lines every 6-12 months. its Musk thinking he knows better at everything - he knows better on a lot of things but not everything.
We'll not agree, no point discussing it further, I just look to the share price.
They decided to use robots because they _could_ be more efficient, but, as usual they weren't. It's not going to stop Tesla trying again for future models. Musk will never stop trying to automate everything.
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