4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors

[AlanSubie4Life]

Or if Tesla will have moved on to something else by then.

Hopefully not! That would seem to be a major strategic failure.

In any case, it seems we agree that the current 4680s need improvement. And we expect to see some sort of software update soon.

Of course they are. That is why they have said that they will buy every compliant cell that suppliers can make. (And have shown slides with at least three different battery types being used depending on use case.)

I can see the argument for the right tool for the job - a cheap low capacity slow charging cell for commuter vehicles, etc.

But just seems like Cybertruck is an odd place for that cheap cell because for that application, charging speed is absolutely key (high consumption rate relative to pack size especially when towing).

The Out of Spec guys should have run a fossil-powered pickup running all out, as a control for their coast-to-coast run, just like Björn.

I guess maybe they’ll swap it out. But seems to me they must have been expecting a denser, faster charging cell. Or maybe they just originally planned for double stack (would solve charging speed problem since double capacity and charge rate with much smaller % consumption increase) but decided against it. Hard to know.

Time will tell. 2026 is not far away - maybe I will change my mind after the software update blows me away, but I do not expect much to change in the next two years. Maybe 10% more density if we’re lucky?

 

[GhostSkater]

I guess maybe they’ll swap it out. But seems to me they must have been expecting a denser, faster charging cell. Or maybe they just originally planned for double stack (would solve charging speed problem since double capacity and charge rate with much smaller % consumption increase) but decided against it. Hard to know.

Yes, it seems like double layer pack is as the goal before the size reduction, there is a article maybe from Motortrend from the first reveal quoting Tesla saying it’s a double layer pack

But the size reduction and cells/efficiency improvement allowed a good enough range, if we go by that a single layer would have around 250 miles of range, which wasn’t acceptable, but then a single layer with 300-340 miles of range would happen

Part of me wonder if they are pursuing two alternatives for the pack replacement, the range extender or a new pack, with maybe a bit taller cells or just better energy density

If they are at $100/kWh, in reality it’s really $55/kWh due to the tax credit, so around $10k in cells for a new 180 kWh pack, plus whatever the value of the old one might be, seems plausible for the $16k the range extender will cost

With Tesla it’s always cost cost cost, I really wonder how much per kWh Porsche pay for the cells, what is the cost for really fast charging

If I were to guess, enough to not make feasible to pursue for Tesla since Elon and others always hammer the point that affordability is key

 

[kpanda17]

So 4680 targeting energy density/cost parity with LFPs? Or a mix, density equal to 2170 and KWH cost equal to LFP?
If yes, That would be a disruption
Wow