Blog A Look at Tesla's EV Competition in 2019

[barjohn]

Given the large number of Teslas being produced, it would not make sense to share the SC network until it could be built out to have greater capacity than the number of Teslas. In the urban areas and especially in California, they don't have enough SC's in many areas to service Teslas much less adding one or more additional brands.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The argument seems to be that they can't be a serious rival to Tesla or anyone else for 8 years or more because of the 20,000 unit planned production. All I am saying is that the big obstacles to changing that are money, desire and battery production and that if they had those things it could change much more quickly. In fact, they might be able to be more of a competitor than one might imagine given that Tesla is stretched pretty thin between getting model 3 production up to the 10k/wk target, producing the model Y, producing the new sports car and the semi. That is a pretty full plate by anyone's standards and add a truck to that mix and I'm not sure Tesla can muster the resources to do it ALL in the next 2 years. I hope they can as it would sure make my Tesla stock worth a heap but a reality check says that isn't likely. One other big key is can Rivian or Tesla produce a truck that competes with a Ford or Chevy truck in price, range and amenities? The current truck looks very compelling even though it is not the sexiest design but price will be a big obstacle. I lived in Texas for a couple of years before moving back to California and trucks are the family vehicle of choice but the vast majority are not buying $70K + trucks. Sure, in the big cities like Houston or Dallas they might because trucks are a status symbol in those areas but in the smaller cities and towns they are work vehicles and practical for families with the extended cab.

You don’t have an argument. Sure, in theory, Rivian could raise a ton of money, build a manufacturing line for 100,000 cars, immediately start selling 100,000 $100,000 cars with no brand. First, they aren’t going to do that. They are going to build a 20,000 car manufacturing line. Why? See the part about no brand. It is very possible demand wouldn’t instantly materialize at that huge rate. Also, they are a startup. It takes years to hire all the people necessary to support such a huge endeavor.

 

[jgs]

Given the large number of Teslas being produced, it would not make sense to share the SC network until it could be built out to have greater capacity than the number of Teslas. In the urban areas and especially in California, they don't have enough SC's in many areas to service Teslas much less adding one or more additional brands.

It kind of depends on what the constraints are on growing the SC network. I presume any sharing of the network wouldn’t be free, and potentially could result in a substantial capital infusion now in exchange for SC network use later. I also would guess they wouldn’t do it at cost, there would be at least some markup, so they’d have the ability to build out the network to fully accommodate he increased volume, and then some.

Tesla has shown a good appetite for capital now in exchange for goods later, so it wouldn’t be out of character.

 

[barjohn]

There are numerous problems with the sharing arrangement. Does Tesla change to the CCS style connector or add it to its stations? In many metro areas, it takes time to locate space and obtain permits to install more chargers plus there must be available power from the utility company to handle the requirements and that can mean waiting for infrastructure to be approved and installed. The company buying in must add software to their vehicles to do the handshaking required to permit charging and to charge the customer for the power.

For sake of discussion, let's assume they signed an agreement with a company that would be bringing to market a BEV in 2 years. Do you think Tesla would have adequately expanded the available chargers in that period to accommodate the Teslas in use plus the new vehicles? What would happen if Tesla owners suddenly found they had to wait for a charger because the new brand X was occupying the Tesla chargers when Teslas network of superchargers was one of the key reasons for selecting Tesla over other brands?

Is it possible? Yes, of course; but does it make sense? Maybe not.

 

[jgs]

The questions in paragraph two all require speculation on my part to answer in detail; I don't think there's a lot to be gained by continuing an already tenuous chain of speculations. The bottom line is that of course I'm aware of the issues you raise, and even in light of all of them it still seems to me like a potentially sensible business arrangement. The fact that it hasn't happened yet suggests either Tesla's competitors don't agree for their own reasons (and "don't give your competitor money and/or PR wins" may be compelling enough on its own), or Tesla doesn't, or both.

 

[RubberToe]

Apparently big batteries are tricky, even for all the OEM's that will be able to build them much faster and easier than Tesla. I-Pace burned up in the Netherlands:

Jaguar I-PACE electric SUV caught on fire, automaker is investigating the cause

 

[wdolson]

There are numerous problems with the sharing arrangement. Does Tesla change to the CCS style connector or add it to its stations? In many metro areas, it takes time to locate space and obtain permits to install more chargers plus there must be available power from the utility company to handle the requirements and that can mean waiting for infrastructure to be approved and installed. The company buying in must add software to their vehicles to do the handshaking required to permit charging and to charge the customer for the power.

For sake of discussion, let's assume they signed an agreement with a company that would be bringing to market a BEV in 2 years. Do you think Tesla would have adequately expanded the available chargers in that period to accommodate the Teslas in use plus the new vehicles? What would happen if Tesla owners suddenly found they had to wait for a charger because the new brand X was occupying the Tesla chargers when Teslas network of superchargers was one of the key reasons for selecting Tesla over other brands?

Is it possible? Yes, of course; but does it make sense? Maybe not.

Look at the number of vehicles. Rivian will be struggling to build 20,000 vehicles a year initially and Telsa puts more than that on America streets a month. It was somewhere more than 24K last month. If Rivian does join the supercharger network, Tesla will require they pay their way, which probably means contributing to supercharger expansion too. 20K a year is about 1250 a month, that's more than the Model S/X on low volume months, but less than the average for those cars.

At least at first most Tesla owners are superchargers are going to be curious about Rivians charging. It won't be enough to cause a problem, but enough to be a curiosity.

I had a thought that one of the established auto makers might sweep in and buy out Rivian if they look like their design is going to fly. It would short cut a lot of EV development on their part.

 

[RubberToe]

CNBC article on the new 2019 Prius. I know, not a BEV, but this car was the leading eco-conscious ride since 1997. Basic question is whether Toyota will even keep the brand alive, or cut their losses and move on due to collapsing sales. My favorite quote from Deputy Chief Engineer Koichi Kaneko:

"I don't think Prius can be the same as before," said Kaneko, looking forward to the gen-5 model that is just now beginning to enter the development process. "Our role is to figure out what we can do with it. We need to find a new direction."

Let me help you out here Kaneko-San, here are a couple choices going forward:
1. Listen to your brilliant upper management, maybe turn the Prius brand into the fuel cell vehicle of the future. That should do really well, eh?
2. Listen to the 7,862 people on this forum who have been shouting from soapboxes, with bull horns, directly into your thick skull, that Toyota needs to develop and start selling a BEV in volume. Dude, the writing is on the wall. Look at what Tesla did with the Model 3. Your company could have done this with the Prius brand had you just had the sense to put the effort in starting about 3 years ago...

Toyota struggles to save breakthrough Prius hybrid

 

[wdolson]

I've been wondering if Toyota was going to make it when the crunch comes. They have a long ways to fall as one of the world's top brands, and they are still a winner with reliability, but they tried to modernize their cars and turned them all into weirdmobiles. The new grills on most of their cars are awful. They made the Prius cars look weird all over a few years ago. They've dialed it back, but it still is funky.

In underlying tech they doubled down on hybrids and focused on fuel cells when the world started moving towards BEVs. The hybrid segment in general is shrinking as eco buyers now trust BEVs and enough different BEVs are available to boost BEV sales. InsideEvs' chart of sales of BEVs and PHEVs in the US shows over the last two years the top ten sellers are more dominated by BEVs than hybrids. As recently as 2016 it was about half and half. The Model S was the top dog in 2016, but the Volt only sold a few thousand less.

Prius sales have been falling, but Toyota is offering hybrid versions of many of their cars now and hybrid versions of those are growing, so some of the Prius sales erosion has been to other Toyota vehicles, but it looks like Hybrid sales are not growing. Wikipedia's article only shows sales through 2017, but the market share of hybrids peaked in 2013 and 2014 around 3% of the market and then settled back to around 2%
Hybrid electric vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia

Toyota is big enough they can afford a few mistakes, but they seem to be making a lot of them and eventually it could kill them.

 

[dfwatt]

It seems Tesla is on the cusp of achieving its original goal – “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.” But, how will that win impact the overall health of Tesla as a business? According to a study by the London-based PA Consulting...
[WPURI="https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2018/08/28/a-look-at-teslas-ev-competition-in-2019/"]READ FULL ARTICLE[/WPURI]

This article is laughable on so many fronts. First of all the fact that it was paid for by a European group funded primarily by German car manufacturers making cars 98% dependent on internal combustion, quotes ridiculous list prices, and is in complete denial of the evidence that Tesla is probably at least three to five years ahead of anybody else in terms of the critical Triad of Battery Technology, charging infrastructure and car electronics. We've been hearing the grandiose claim that there was a Tesla killer around the corner for so long it's become boring to debunk. The only car that they list that's likely to be any threat to Tesla in terms of driving experience is of course the Porsche. Let's see if they can actually create that for less than $120,000. I suspect by the time it comes out an upgraded model 3 or a downgraded Roadster will suck its doors off.

 

[banned-66611]

It's very quickly going to get to the point where rules are need to block single manufacturer only chargers. There are only so many spots for them and so much grid capacity, which means much higher costs for whoever comes second.

Europe is already starting with rules mandating CCS/CHAdeMO. Open Access will be next.

 

[jgs]

It's very quickly going to get to the point where rules are need to block single manufacturer only chargers. There are only so many spots for them

I don’t know where you live, but I cannot think of any place I’ve ever been (I’ve traveled extensively) where parking is so outrageously constrained it would preclude multiple charging networks.

The more so since in the endgame where EVs begin to dominate the market and you actually need nontrivial real estate for charging, there will be a glut of obsolescent gas (or petrol, if you prefer) stations looking for a new purpose.

and so much grid capacity,

If N cars are charging they’ll consume O(N) grid power regardless of how many charging stations it’s mediated through or whose brand name is on them.

Granted that it’s easier to do capacity planning if it’s all through one network (the power of statistical multiplexing and all that), but this doesn’t seem like the existential problem you make it out to be.

which means much higher costs for whoever comes second.

Not stipulated absent evidence.

Europe is already starting with rules mandating CCS/CHAdeMO. Open Access will be next.

I think it would likely be an overall negative for Tesla drivers if NA followed suit.

 

[Magellan55]

So first Tesla killer up is the iPace. Selling for 3 full months now in the US, they are pushing a consistent whopping 200 per month. slow clap. Maybe they are just shipping most of them to Europe? If the others all sell at a similar pace (not surprising if they do), it won't do that much to Tesla.

Though X/S/3 are all down significantly for January. M3 is understandable give most are being shipped overseas now. But S/X down 60% Y-Y. Hoping that's just a temp hangover from the Dec surge as Elon mentioned on the call. Source: goodcarbadcar.net

 

[jgs]

Though X/S/3 are all down significantly for January.

I don't really follow the handicapping, but that doesn't seem a bit surprising given that anyone who was on the fence got a pretty hard push from the tax credit sunset.

 

[banned-66611]

So first Tesla killer up is the iPace. Selling for 3 full months now in the US, they are pushing a consistent whopping 200 per month. slow clap. Maybe they are just shipping most of them to Europe? If the others all sell at a similar pace (not surprising if they do), it won't do that much to Tesla.

I don't think anyone expected it to be a Tesla killer. It's a luxury car for the kind of people who buy Jaguars - older, wealthy, mid-life crisis types.

Tesla isn't going anywhere. The only cars that come close to being Tesla killers are the Kona and Niro, which may kill off the Model 3 Short Range. I would have added the Leaf 60 but Nissan seem to have cocked it up somehow.

 

[Lozza12]

I don't think anyone expected it to be a Tesla killer. It's a luxury car for the kind of people who buy Jaguars - older, wealthy, mid-life crisis types.

Tesla isn't going anywhere. The only cars that come close to being Tesla killers are the Kona and Niro, which may kill off the Model 3 Short Range. I would have added the Leaf 60 but Nissan seem to have cocked it up somehow.

Still peddling this baloney?

3700% sales growth since 2012 is “going nowhere”? I drove the Kona EV again the other day and it’s still dull. Not so the Model 3 according to pretty much every YouTube video lol.

 

[jgs]

Still peddling this baloney?

3700% sales growth since 2012 is “going nowhere”? I drove the Kona EV again the other day and it’s still dull. Not so the Model 3 according to pretty much every YouTube video lol.

Um, unless I'm very much mistaken you've completely misread @banned-66611's idiom. I took "Tesla isn't going anywhere", in context, to mean "there is no risk that the iPace will dislodge Tesla from its market-dominating position".

The English language is such a gas.

 

[EVMeister]

Whatever he meant by that statement, he still doesn't seem to understand there is more to a car than just range. It's been pointed out to him before, but he's blind with ignorance - Hyundai KonaEV. The Kona has a buyer, the Model 3 SR has a buyer. Apples and oranges, one will not be killing t'other.

 

[banned-66611]

3700% sales growth since 2012 is “going nowhere”?

Calm down buddy, what I meant was that Tesla is not about to be killed off by anyone. They are doing surprisingly well - most new auto manufacturers fail, it's a very hard industry to get into.

jgs got it. Next time you are triggered just step back and ask yourself "could I have misinterpreted this?"

 

[banned-66611]

The Kona has a buyer, the Model 3 SR has a buyer. Apples and oranges, one will not be killing t'other.

That's what I said. Really, the two of you were triggered by me saying that Tesla is in a pretty good position and that it's really only the unreleased low cost model which may be at risk from the competition?