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Agile plunge pricing predictions
- Thread starter philgods
- Start date
I’m using an app that does Agile predictions, and it’s been pretty much on the money the past few days I’ve been using it. Doesn’t show as going negative tomorrow, but I guess it could vary by region (I’m SW)
(dotted line is predicted rates)
(dotted line is predicted rates)
All bets are off. Data is out. Looks like a mega day overnight & tomorrow afternoon.
Market data | Nord Pool
Market data | Nord Pool
I’m beta testing a new version of it (on iOS). Not sure if he’s doing beta testing on Android. I believe this feature is coming out pretty soon.
EDIT: It could be wrong based on that link above. Should be interesting!
If the Octopus Watch App new version is AI /neural net based it will look at trends and weighting factors. Be interested if it feeds in bank holidays etc. Of course, the past is no guarantee of the future.
The Elexon BM Report I posted in the other thread is based on National Grid’s demand forecast and the aggregated planned generating capacity.
National Grid must have some big computing power, sophisticated forecasting software, scenario models etc. sourcing Meto data, TV schedules and all sorts of stuff fed into it. I’d say hard to beat. OK it’s not priced but you could have a good guess based on previous market condition & prices. Might have a go at forecast pricing myself.
The Elexon BM Report I posted in the other thread is based on National Grid’s demand forecast and the aggregated planned generating capacity.
National Grid must have some big computing power, sophisticated forecasting software, scenario models etc. sourcing Meto data, TV schedules and all sorts of stuff fed into it. I’d say hard to beat. OK it’s not priced but you could have a good guess based on previous market condition & prices. Might have a go at forecast pricing myself.
I was using that watch app a few weeks ago on Alpha test and they missed several of the plunges we had in a row. Gave up on it and won’t be paying the sub when it’s out of beta.
Looks like they missed again...
Great idea, bad execution so far. Happy to be corrected once it improves
Looks like they missed again...
Great idea, bad execution so far. Happy to be corrected once it improves
Not as dramatic as that spreadsheet above, but it’s only fair Octopus make some money out of us
Nord Pool is a different exchange so the prices will vary slightly. I just use it to save trying to work out the BST offset and the data is published about noon rather than after 4:00pm.
Just did the calcs with Epex:
Market Data | EPEX SPOT
e.g. 02:00-02:30 the wholesale price is £7 per MWH (Epex is not BST/GMT)
7x 2.2= 15.4
Add VAT @ 5%=16.17
Divide by 10 to convert to p/kWh = 1.62
That’s what I’ve got from Octopus = good for transparency. Regional adjustments may apply.
rEV gadget
Member
stonecoldrmw
Member
So for the plunge pricing earlier today, 13:30-16:00, i made the most of it...
M3P on charge
3 iPhones
1 Samsung S9
Playstation 4 on
PS4 controller on separate charge
Washing machine on 2 hour wash
Kitchen fan
Bathroom fan
Pedestal fan
Laptop on charge
3 TVs on
Google Home assistant playing music
Last but not least, i strimmed the lawn
M3P on charge
3 iPhones
1 Samsung S9
Playstation 4 on
PS4 controller on separate charge
Washing machine on 2 hour wash
Kitchen fan
Bathroom fan
Pedestal fan
Laptop on charge
3 TVs on
Google Home assistant playing music
Last but not least, i strimmed the lawn
The washing got done today here too. I worked out that my Pod Point starts load shedding when the total house load is 60 Amps. It reduces the Amps available (the number to the right of the ‘/‘ to the car), the car follows to match the available. When the total load reduced (tumble dryer finished), Amps available increases, car slowly ramps back up. Tried it a few times. Beats popping the cut-out fuse I guess.
ACarneiro
Active Member
Whilst most of those seem sensible, what exactly were the fans on for? Just burning electricity?
Call me old fashioned but I’m feeling a bit uncomfortable with squandering a resource in order to get a few pennies. I can’t help but think that this is sort of the mindset that got us into the fossil fuel mess we’re in today...
Its burn the electricity and get paid or crash the grid or pay wind farms not to generate. Better in my pocket than the corporations. No fossil fuels involved. If only the politicians would learn the science! they should be paying us to put panels and batteries on every s/sw facing roof instead of wasting money on building nuclear or biofuel power stations.
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