Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[krla]

ReneSola Polycrystalline PV Modules Power 44.5KW in Colorado Solar Projects

http://ir.renesola.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=210622&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1877320&highlight=

 

[fjm9898]

looks like some one just decided to jump into JKS for ER, but really, anyone but me jumping on JKS for ER?
I bought some Dec ITM calls.

 

[Clemsons2k]

I bought a call for JKS to play on earnings, but its nothing large. Just felt like doing something while I sit on the rest of my investments for the time being

 

[AlMc]

I bought a call for JKS to play on earnings, but its nothing large. Just felt like doing something while I sit on the rest of my investments for the time being

I have been gradually adding to my JKS position over the last 6 weeks. I am where I want to be before earnings. Hopefully ER bump will be more like CSIQ than TSLA.

I also have March 2014 and Jan16 JASO calls I picked up with some of the CSIQ gains. (very small amount)

 

[sleepyhead]

JKS is a good company to INVEST in. I don't know about all these "earnings" plays though. It might be really good, it might not. Will probably be really good, but why gamble when you can invest?

AlMc has the right idea in investing in the company.

 

[fjm9898]

I invest and move some play money around for ERs that I think will have a payoff. I have been in JKS since they have the two day flash crash down to $20.

 

[sleepyhead]

I bought a bunch of JKS as well, because I thought it would do really good on ER. But I bought most of mine a month ago to take advantage of the run up to ER. Now that it is up 50% in a little over a week, it would be tough to jump in for an ER play. I still bought a little more JKS today, because I think its ER might be very good.

But the risk reward is not that good anymore after such a huge run up.

 

[fjm9898]

But the risk reward is not that good anymore after such a huge run up.

Agreed, that is why i just bought a few pretty deep in the money calls. I am not expecting a huge move up but i would like to get a bit of a bonus on top of the JKS i already have on the move.

 

[Convert2013]

Agreed, that is why i just bought a few pretty deep in the money calls. I am not expecting a huge move up but i would like to get a bit of a bonus on top of the JKS i already have on the move.

Good luck to you guys on JKS next week. I only invested in CSIQ. Bought some more today. Any pop in JKS will likely bump up CSIQ too so will be satisfied with just that. I did think about ER hopping but too much risk + tax consequences, so I will sit on what I have and hope for a nice 5% to 10% run next week on average for Solar.
---------------------------------------------------

So what's everyone's 2014 investment plans?

I plan to hold CSIQ, buy back some more TSLA, and nibble on JKS and SPWR. That's my main play (investments) but will firm up by year end.

 

[ckessel]

Is there any reason to think JKS will have any sort of great ER? SPWR was pretty good and the stock dived (though it's come back nicely). CSIQ was awesome and only gained 10% on a day when solars in general were up 5%. Don't get me wrong, the CSIQ bump was great, but JKS would need to more than have a good ER to make a play at this point pay out.

 

[palmer_md]

Is there any reason to think JKS will have any sort of great ER? SPWR was pretty good and the stock dived (though it's come back nicely). CSIQ was awesome and only gained 10% on a day when solars in general were up 5%. Don't get me wrong, the CSIQ bump was great, but JKS would need to more than have a good ER to make a play at this point pay out.

It seems the market has not had enough time to figure out these companies and separate them. They all seem to go up and down in tandem. At some point there will be some separation and the "good" companies will be rewarded.

 

[ckessel]

Any thoughts on the new director SOL announced earlier this week. He's also apparently works for Sollensys Corp as well which is in an unrelated industry. Given SOL's very lackluster performance the last few months, especially relative to solar in general, I'm not sure if this is a good sign or a sign of internal turmoil. Who was doing his duties before? Is the fact he's active as an executive of another company an issue? Is the fact he doesn't seem to come from any solar background of concern?

 

[sleepyhead]

Is there any reason to think JKS will have any sort of great ER? SPWR was pretty good and the stock dived (though it's come back nicely). CSIQ was awesome and only gained 10% on a day when solars in general were up 5%. Don't get me wrong, the CSIQ bump was great, but JKS would need to more than have a good ER to make a play at this point pay out.

I really hope that you have not invested any money in JKS if you are asking if there is a reason to think JKS will have a good ER. The answer is that they are going to hit another grand slam like CSIQ did. I think JKS results might be even better than CSIQ from a stock perspective.

CSIQ was at $25 when they pre-announced and went up that day like 15%. It went to $32 post ER. That is almost a 30% increase due to earnings. You are looking at it wrong by saying that CSIQ "only" gained 10%. After all it actually gained 13.8% the day of ER, which is a huge difference from 10%.

I also wanted to add that you can't use the words "only" and "10% gain in 1 day" in the same sentence when talking about stocks. Most people would kill for a 10% gain in a year let alone a day; and stocks on average gain less than 10% in a year. I am not directing this directly at you ckessel, but a lot of people on this forum have been spoiled by huge TSLA returns and don't understand the real dynamics of investing.

You guys have no idea how good of a gold mine I helped you all find in solar. CSIQ already tripled since I first recommended it here around $10 in July, just 4 short months ago. Stocks don't just triple in 4 months, and if I had to guess I would say that 99% of stocks don't triple in 4 years either.

When a stock goes up 1500% in a year, another 10% move means that the stock is now up 1650%. That is the reason you have to get in early on these stocks; the early visionaries are getting 150% return that day while you are getting 10%.

13.8% pop post ER is huge, I really don't know what you were expecting.

JKS will have a blowout

 

[ckessel]

I really hope that you have not invested any money in JKS if you are asking if there is a reason to think JKS will have a good ER.
...
CSIQ was at $25 when they pre-announced and went up that day like 15%. It went to $32 post ER. That is almost a 30% increase due to earnings. You are looking at it wrong by saying that CSIQ "only" gained 10%. After all it actually gained 13.8% the day of ER, which is a huge difference from 10%.

I don't think that's a fair characterization of my post. I was responding to someone asking about an ER play right now and so I was referencing back to a similarly timed play on CSIQ. A similar play just before CSIQ's earnings would not have gained 30%. It would have gained 10% (or more or less depending on when you bought the day before).

I also wanted to add that you can't use the words "only" and "10% gain in 1 day" in the same sentence when talking about stocks.

I know you said this wasn't directly at me, but again I think that's unfair. Solars will move 5-10% daily on a regular basis. 10% is great, but it's hard to know if that's a real long term 10% gain or a transitory volatility blip.

I really appreciate the posts you do and I know your style is blunt, but this one felt hostile and personal.

I do hope JSK is a blowout, but it's too late now to position for it anyway since their ER is Monday morning.

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't think that's a fair characterization of my post. I was responding to someone asking about an ER play right now and so I was referencing back to a similarly timed play on CSIQ. A similar play just before CSIQ's earnings would not have gained 30%. It would have gained 10% (or more or less depending on when you bought the day before).


I know you said this wasn't directly at me, but again I think that's unfair. Solars will move 5-10% daily on a regular basis. 10% is great, but it's hard to know if that's a real long term 10% gain or a transitory volatility blip.

I really appreciate the posts you do and I know your style is blunt, but this one felt hostile and personal.

I do hope JSK is a blowout, but it's too late now to position for it anyway since their ER is Monday morning.

Didn't mean to be hostile, but it is hard to convey things over the internet. What I was trying to say is that if you would have done research on JKS you would know that ER is going to be a blowout. Since you are asking that question, I assume you haven't done research. I hope that you don't invest in companies without research. That is what I was trying to say.

JKS will have really, really good earnings. I am saying this now, because you can't buy now before earnings and I don't want people buying because of a post I made just in case I am wildly wrong and the stock tanks.

You are looking at CSIQ wrong. It went up 14% post ER and then it went sideways for 2 days. That doesn't mean anything. If the stock goes up 30% next week, it will be because it had a good ER and it takes Wall St. time to figure things out. Nobody has had solar on their radar, so they are not going to blindly throw money at CSIQ because it had a blowout quarter. They are going to start researching it and that takes days, if not weeks. The money flows gradually over time.

Just look at FB. Yes it had a good 30% pop post Q2 ER, but the real gains came over the next month post ER. TSLA in Q2 had a 14% pop and then a 15% decline over the following days.

It takes the market time to digest earnings. Just wait and you will see how CSIQ reacts over the next weeks.

- - - Updated - - -

Solars will move 5-10% daily on a regular basis. 10% is great, but it's hard to know if that's a real long term 10% gain or a transitory volatility blip.

I still don't agree with this statement. Just because they can move 5%-10% on a daily basis, did you expect that it will move 40% on ER? Stocks hardly ever move more than 10% a day. That is a psychological barrier, and CSIQ did awesome by going up 14%.

 

[ckessel]

I still don't agree with this statement. Just because they can move 5%-10% on a daily basis, did you expect that it will move 40% on ER? Stocks hardly ever move more than 10% a day. That is a psychological barrier, and CSIQ did awesome by going up 14%.

OF course I didn't expect 40%, partly because that's a crazy number and partly because it had moved up due to pre-earnings.

That's the point I've been trying to make. I was responding to someone asking about making a play right before earnings. That wouldn't have netted you much with CSIQ unless you picked your options incredibly well. Not because 13% isn't great, but because:

a) IV was killer
b) You'd have to pick the options right
c) It wasn't 13% day over day. CSIQ dropped from 29.56 to 28.23 the day before earnings, so about 4%. Depending on when you bought the day before, you might have seen 9-10%. If you'd bought the day before that, you'd see quite a bit less.

So I was similarly unsure the same type of JKS play made much sense.

Yes, CSIQ gains have been awesome. I posted specifically to someone asking about buying the day before the JKS ER, with my point being that it'd have to be a blowout to make that a useful play. CSIQ had a great ER and picking the options right still wasn't a trivial gimme.

I have no idea what research you think I should have been doing to decide on whether JKS is going to have a blowout ER. I can't find any news reports of pre-earnings or financial statements.

You post a lot with a lot of well informed detail, which is great. Then you turn around and scold people that take you seriously and try to discuss the companies, but lack your expertise to either find or interpret information.

I'm not an idiot. A novice, and perhaps ignorant of what or where I should find data or how to interpret it, but I'm not stupid.

 

[sleepyhead]

OF course I didn't expect 40%, partly because that's a crazy number and partly because it had moved up due to pre-earnings.

That's the point I've been trying to make. I was responding to someone asking about making a play right before earnings. That wouldn't have netted you much with CSIQ unless you picked your options incredibly well. Not because 13% isn't great, but because:

a) IV was killer
b) You'd have to pick the options right
c) It wasn't 13% day over day. CSIQ dropped from 29.56 to 28.23 the day before earnings, so about 4%. Depending on when you bought the day before, you might have seen 9-10%. If you'd bought the day before that, you'd see quite a bit less.

Yes, CSIQ gains have been awesome. That wasn't why I posted. I posted specifically to someone asking about buying the day before the JKS ER, with my point being that it'd have to be a blowout to make that a useful play. CSIQ had a great ER and picking the options right still wasn't a trivial gimme.

You are still looking at it wrong, that is not how the market works. It doesn't matter that CSIQ was down 4% the day before. If it had gone up 4% the day before, it still would have gone up 10% the next day. You can't do math in the market the way you are doing. If you are doing math that way then why are you ignoring that it went up to $33.25 for an 18% gain. That was a rethorical question.
And to your second point on options, I disagree as well. If you had bought virtually any CSIQ option the day before at any time and sold it the next day in the afternoon you would have made a killing. I know because I saw how options reacted.

And just two posts above yours both fjm9898 and I already agreed that it is not a good idea to try to play JKS purely for earnings, so I don't understand why you raised the question again.

Even though it is not a good idea, my prediction is that those who did buy JKS options today will make a killing next week.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

You guys have no idea how good of a gold mine I helped you all find in solar. CSIQ already tripled since I first recommended it here around $10 in July, just 4 short months ago. Stocks don't just triple in 4 months, and if I had to guess I would say that 99% of stocks don't triple in 4 years either.

I am spoiled for life. First stock in my life I bought was TSLA back in January. Using those gains I'm now up like crazy due to solar thanks to sleepy (In ~$14 in CSIQ+good profits on some others). I used to be ecstatic when one of my mutual funds went up 20% over a year, was usually just hoping for ~10%.

I don't know how I can ever go back to "normal" gains (and losses! :O ). Last weekend I was updating my spreadsheets and was feeling a little down due on how much money I was "down" from my account ATH because of TSLA action recently but then realized that I was still crazy-ridiculous-life-changing amounts higher than earlier this year and that helped put things in perspective.

 

[ckessel]

If you had bought virtually any CSIQ option the day before at any time and sold it the next day in the afternoon you would have made a killing. I know because I saw how options reacted.

I suppose define "killing". I'd bought 32's the monday before. They were green the next day after ER, around 20-25% if I recall by the end of the day. Good, but I don't think I'd classify it as a killing. 20% is great, but with options you're balancing the good times against times you lose 100%.

It doesn't matter that CSIQ was down 4% the day before. If it had gone up 4% the day before, it still would have gone up 10% the next day.

It matters because of the trend line. It was steadily down for 2 days before ER. If you bought in those 2 down days you lost money going into the ER and muted the impact of the ER spike. If the stock had been rising for 2 days before ER you'd gain that plus the ER spike. Big difference in net profit between those two pre-ER trends.

 

[AlMc]

I am spoiled for life. First stock in my life I bought was TSLA back in January. Using those gains I'm now up like crazy due to solar thanks to sleepy (In ~$14 in CSIQ+good profits on some others). I used to be ecstatic when one of my mutual funds went up 20% over a year, was usually just hoping for ~10%.

I don't know how I can ever go back to "normal" gains (and losses! :O ). Last weekend I was updating my spreadsheets and was feeling a little down due on how much money I was "down" from my account ATH because of TSLA action recently but then realized that I was still crazy-ridiculous-life-changing amounts higher than earlier this year and that helped put things in perspective.

+1 Jon; I had all my IRA money in mutual funds during the 'lost decade' and was happy to come out 'alive'. Last couple years were decent, especially compared to the lost decade. I drove the Tesla in March and immediately bought the car and stock in my IRA. It almost tripled, then solar. Up crazy amount overall and I was pi**ed when Tesla went down 30%??. Where was my perspective. :wink: Can't thank everyone on TMC enough. Secure retirement. Thank you Thank you.