Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

The date is just an estimate and could be any time in November.

There is no way of knowing if they will preannounce. I am just speculating and writing opinions on an internet forum to stir discussion.

Nobody in their right mind would make investment decisions based on a possible preannouncement. If you like the company then buy the stock, if you don't then stay away. There is no difference if they preannounce or if they don't; this should not even factor in to your investment decision. The stock will end up at the same price on Dec 31st anyway (give or take).

 

[Larken]

So how good of a possibility is there that CSIQ will preannounce earnings? When are they scheduled to announce? I can't seem to find the date.

EDIT: Nvm I found the date. Nov 11th is what yahoo finance says.

A questions to the more experienced option traders. If I would like to make a play on a positive ER from CSIQ would the best option be to buy the Nov13 which expires on the 15th of november, just 4 days after their ER or Jan14? I guess what I'm wondering is how options "usually" behave when an expiry date is so close to an ER?

 

[sleepyhead]

A questions to the more experienced option traders. If I would like to make a play on a positive ER from CSIQ would the best option be to buy the Nov13 which expires on the 15th of november, just 4 days after their ER or Jan14? I guess what I'm wondering is how options "usually" behave when an expiry date is so close to an ER?

Just buy some Apr14 to be safe.

- - - Updated - - -

You don't know when they will announce earnings.

 

[Norse]

CSIQ earnings on 11 November is a guess, if they announce earnings the 20th you might be in trouble, however the stock might go up until earnings. It`s insane that yahoo don't have a "(not confirmed)" or "(confirmed)" behind their dates.

 

[Clemsons2k]

The date is just an estimate and could be any time in November.

There is no way of knowing if they will preannounce. I am just speculating and writing opinions on an internet forum to stir discussion.

Nobody in their right mind would make investment decisions based on a possible preannouncement. If you like the company then buy the stock, if you don't then stay away. There is no difference if they preannounce or if they don't; this should not even factor in to your investment decision. The stock will end up at the same price on Dec 31st anyway (give or take).

I was just curious, I'm not betting my life savings based on speculation :tongue:

 

[ckessel]

Having read here and then done at least some due diligence in looking at the companies, I picked up end of year options on a few things. I realize now though that I have no thought out exit plan for either options or stock. There's no reason for me to think exiting any of them make sense right now, but it made me ponder the meta question of what factors do you look at for an exit plan? For Tesla, I'm obsessive enough that I can mostly go on feel of the accumulated news, but for other holdings like CSIQ or KNDI, I simply don't have the same kind of time to devote to it and so I really need to come up with some sort of proxy metrics/guidelines.

I know sleepyhead approaches it like a 2nd full time job, but that's not really possible for me (well, perhaps physically possible, but the personal sacrifice is beyond my pain threshold), so I'm looking for suggestions/advice on somewhat less time intensive diligence folks take. I suppose the simplest, near zero time, is a market mechanism like a trailing stop, but I'd like to take a more active role than that. Stay on top of the stories each night in google finance highlights?

 

[fjm9898]

anyone else find this wildly optimistic? SPWR a 733% EPS gain this quarter... wasent the reason the stock tanked after ER last quarter because they were capacity constrained? Yes you can still improve margins and EPS. If they are talking y/y quarter then i guess it could make sense, but they dont says Y/Y.
SunPower, Tesla Earnings Could Energize Shares In Q3 SPWR TSLA - Investors.com

 

[sleepyhead]

Having read here and then done at least some due diligence in looking at the companies, I picked up end of year options on a few things. I realize now though that I have no thought out exit plan for either options or stock. There's no reason for me to think exiting any of them make sense right now, but it made me ponder the meta question of what factors do you look at for an exit plan? For Tesla, I'm obsessive enough that I can mostly go on feel of the accumulated news, but for other holdings like CSIQ or KNDI, I simply don't have the same kind of time to devote to it and so I really need to come up with some sort of proxy metrics/guidelines.

I know sleepyhead approaches it like a 2nd full time job, but that's not really possible for me (well, perhaps physically possible, but the personal sacrifice is beyond my pain threshold), so I'm looking for suggestions/advice on somewhat less time intensive diligence folks take. I suppose the simplest, near zero time, is a market mechanism like a trailing stop, but I'd like to take a more active role than that. Stay on top of the stories each night in google finance highlights?

In your case you should have gone with Apr options for CSIQ. Short term options are not for those without time to follow them actively like I do.

anyone else find this wildly optimistic? SPWR a 733% EPS gain this quarter... wasent the reason the stock tanked after ER last quarter because they were capacity constrained? Yes you can still improve margins and EPS. If they are talking y/y quarter then i guess it could make sense, but they dont says Y/Y.
SunPower, Tesla Earnings Could Energize Shares In Q3 SPWR TSLA - Investors.com

SPWR tanked because the market is irrational. There was no reason for SPWR to tank. Even if they never build out capacity, they can still increase MW's shipped by increasing module efficiency and by selling more C7's. Their EPS of $1.2 can easily double or even more from cost cutting. With the way that the solar market is developing and with one of the strongest balance sheets, they have to build out capacity.

In fact, if I was in charge of SPWR, I would be building out capacity as fast as financially possible. I would go all in on capacity expansion. The demand for solar products is moving so fast the not one (major) company will be sitting with idle capacity in 2014. You have to be proactive here.

 

[ckessel]

In your case you should have gone with Apr options for CSIQ. Short term options are not for those without time to follow them actively like I do.

Noted, live and learn . Sounds like use a minimum of 6 month options or go pure stock given the amount of time I'm willing to commit to following them.

 

[farzyness]

What are people's thoughts of SCTY before October Calls expire? I'm thinking it hits ATH before then. Debating selling them now. Have made 840%.

 

[Larken]

Have made 840%.

Well done!

 

[farzyness]

Well done!

Thanks! Oct 32.50 @ 1.50 on 9/5/13. Probably one of my best trades. Just struggling to figure out when to let go!

 

[AlMc]

Thanks! Oct 32.50 @ 1.50 on 9/5/13. Probably one of my best trades. Just struggling to figure out when to let go!

I am the type that would sell 1/2 now (keeping at a minimum a 400%+ gain) and see what happens with the rest.



Also...ER not out till Nov

 

[farzyness]

I am the type that would sell 1/2 now (keeping at a minimum a 400%+ gain) and see what happens with the rest.



Also...ER not out till Nov

Awesome - that's exactly what I did. Sold @ 14.50. Let's see what happens with the rest. Thanks!

 

[CyberDutchie]

A questions to the more experienced option traders. If I would like to make a play on a positive ER from CSIQ would the best option be to buy the Nov13 which expires on the 15th of november, just 4 days after their ER or Jan14? I guess what I'm wondering is how options "usually" behave when an expiry date is so close to an ER?

Just buy some Apr14 to be safe.

I did, got Apr14 17 strike @ 6.70. Unfortunately this was after today's 10% rise--should have done this yesterday :wink:

Thinking of doubling up or should I wait? What's the outlook for next couple of weeks?

CSIQ has had a good run up so far, but as we all know all good things eventually must come to an end.

 

[Jhall118]

I did, got Apr14 17 strike @ 6.70. Unfortunately this was after today's 10% rise--should have done this yesterday :wink:

Thinking of doubling up or should I wait? What's the outlook for next couple of weeks?

CSIQ has had a good run up so far, but as we all know all good things eventually must come to an end.

Yeah! Tesla taught me that. Oh wait...

 

[sleepyhead]

I did, got Apr14 17 strike @ 6.70. Unfortunately this was after today's 10% rise--should have done this yesterday :wink:

Thinking of doubling up or should I wait? What's the outlook for next couple of weeks?

CSIQ has had a good run up so far, but as we all know all good things eventually must come to an end.

IMO CSIQ is going up, up, and up leading up to earnings.

Your buy point was when it crossed below $17. I think I even wrote in my article that once it broke out of it's 2.5 year rounded bottom pattern that it might test the $16.50 mark and that will be new support.

Well it tested that support and now it is off to the races.

Good luck finding a good entry point. I would look for intraday pullbacks like today from $21.85 to $20.50. That is a 6% drop during the day. The way CSIQ has been going, I would call that a pullback.

CSIQ is going up again tomorrow.

 

[Larken]

IMO CSIQ is going up, up, and up leading up to earnings.

Your buy point was when it crossed below $17. I think I even wrote in my article that once it broke out of it's 2.5 year rounded bottom pattern that it might test the $16.50 mark and that will be new support.

Well it tested that support and now it is off to the races.

Good luck finding a good entry point. I would look for intraday pullbacks like today from $21.85 to $20.50. That is a 6% drop during the day. The way CSIQ has been going, I would call that a pullback.

CSIQ is going up again tomorrow.

Yeah you've been right on the money so far, great work! I've loaded up on CSIQ stock and options too. However, do you feel CSIQ can keep running tomorrow even though the situation is the way it is over at congress? I'm even considering selling some of my CSIQ positions tomorrow and try re-enter at a lower price. That might be the wrong move, we'll see what happens in politics tonight and pre-market tomorrow.

 

[Lump]

I put some CSIQ buy orders in the low $20's when I saw futures tumble on the Fitch news expecting a lower open tommorow, now that futures have reversed & shot higher I might have to chase higher...thats what I get for not executing after the close when I had a chance.

 

[sleepyhead]

Yeah you've been right on the money so far, great work! I've loaded up on CSIQ stock and options too. However, do you feel CSIQ can keep running tomorrow even though the situation is the way it is over at congress? I'm even considering selling some of my CSIQ positions tomorrow and try re-enter at a lower price. That might be the wrong move, we'll see what happens in politics tonight and pre-market tomorrow.

I have also been saying the same thing over and over and over...

BUY AND HOLD!!!

I have bought and held (with some very miniscule trades in between) all the time since the government shutdown started and my entire portfolio is up 67% since the shutdown started.

Buy and hold!

You will not succeed by timing the market. If you are afraid that the politicians are going to royally screw up then sell everything you have and sit in cash (not money market accounts). Otherwise:

Buy and hold!