Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

In the long run $20 should be a good price for SPWR. But remember the stock has gone up 6% yesterday and 7% today (add another 3% from Wednesday's bottom). Anything can happen in the next few days. If you don't buy now then wait for a pullback and buy before their Q2 earnings. Company guided for 5c-20c per share, and the analyst consensus is at 10c. Remember these guys are sandbaggers like Elon. I think they might raise guidance for the rest of the year (but this is pure unsubstantiated speculation) on my part.

The correction in the general market may not be over yet. If things get ugly again then Sunpower will probably go down another 10%-20% from here. It is hard to say.

- - - Updated - - -

Here is what will happen to Sunpower tomorrow. It will open and start going up in a straight line pretty quickly to about $20.90 or 3% within the first 3-5 minutes. Then it will go straight down for a few minutes to about 20.40. Then it will go back up to 20.60. If it can retest that 20.90 then it will be another big day of gains. If it only goes to 20.60 and starts coming back down then it will probably be a down or flat day for Sunpower.

This is assuming that we have a flat or positive day in the market. If the market gets scared again due to some minor economic news then Sunpower and other solars will give back a good chunk of gains from the past two days.

Just like I said yesterday evening. The stock started going up for a couple of minutes after market open and reached $20.79 at 9:32 EST and then went straight down to $20.36 by 9:35. It is 9:39 right now and the stock rebounded to $20.60. If it can retest that $20.79 and break through then it might be off to the races today again.

I wish I could do short-term trades but my broker won't allow for that becuase you have to wait 3 days for cash to settle

 

[touda78]

why the 3% down in the afternoon today, this is non sense

 

[ggr]

why the 3% down in the afternoon today, this is non sense

There was an article this afternoon, Securitization And MLPs Can Help Solar Developers Cut Funding Costs - Seeking Alpha , which if you just skim it could look like it was saying that SCTY will be facing increased competition in their financing model. The way I read it is, "Solar City got it right!". At worst, they might lose some share of a much bigger pie. I think (predict) there will be a rebound tomorrow. (I wrote that before I checked the after hours, and they were up a bit.)

 

[touda78]

^ how can a single minded article result in such a big drop, unlikely imo, big investor are playing their emotion card me think...

 

[Gtoffo]

^ how can a single minded article result in such a big drop, unlikely imo, big investor are playing their emotion card me think...

Well other solar stocks also moved down around the end of the day. I guess it might have been caused by profit taking after the big run up of the last few days. The first sellers made the stock tumble through some stop loss orders.

 

[Citizen-T]

Killing it today. Trading in sympathy with TSLA again?

 

[Gtoffo]

Killing it today. Trading in sympathy with TSLA again?

To me it feels like the stock needed to go up from the low 30s.... and the positive TSLA movements just helped investors make that buy decision even more.

 

[imherkimer]

Sympathy with Tesla, could be.
Also I have noticed a lot of articles in the last several days about SCTY testing and deploying large TSLA batteries, and how this will ease conflict with utilities, as it will reduce the phenomenon of using the grid as storage. Utility companies have been balking at this because of having to buy the excess power during peak use, which gets expensive by reducing margins for them.
Maybe its more like synergy with TSLA?

 

[Gtoffo]

Sympathy with Tesla, could be.
Also I have noticed a lot of articles in the last several days about SCTY testing and deploying large TSLA batteries, and how this will ease conflict with utilities, as it will reduce the phenomenon of using the grid as storage. Utility companies have been balking at this because of having to buy the excess power during peak use, which gets expensive by reducing margins for them.
Maybe its more like synergy with TSLA?

I Agree... I think investors see that the two companies are quite complementary and may have a lot of opportunities for collaboration in the future that would turn out to be mutually beneficial.

 

[clmason]

Curt - are you seeing an opportunity with the downward pressure this afternoon?

 

[touda78]

I highly doubt tomorrow will be negative and even more by end of week, no reasons for it unless major news

 

[Curt Renz]

Curt - are you seeing an opportunity with the downward pressure this afternoon?

I bought back SCTY on June 24[SUP]th[/SUP] after having sold on May 28[SUP]th [/SUP]to avoid the inevitable pressure on the price before and after the IPO lock-up expiration. Then SCTY had a nice run-up for a week. Apparently there are still IPO investors looking for opportunities to realize their gains. Trading activity is expected to be exceptionally light on Wednesday and Friday, which would have made it difficult for them to find buyers of large blocks of shares. So they seem to have chosen today. Indeed, that may have presented others with an opportunity.

 

[touda78]

i heard there will be a job report announcement this friday ? what is that about? i don't see any official news about it

 

[Citizen-T]

i heard there will be a job report announcement this friday ? what is that about? i don't see any official news about it

Happens every Friday.

 

[touda78]

Happens every Friday.

lol, wasnt aware, where can i find more details about it ?

 

[Curt Renz]

i heard there will be a job report announcement this friday ? what is that about? i don't see any official news about it

I assume you are not referring to something specific to SolarCity. On the first Friday of every month at 8:30 am ET the US Labor Department issues a report of the previous month's changes in nonfarm payroll and the unemployment rate. Here is a link to the report issued on June 7th: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

[sleepyhead]

The jobless claims is the one that happens every week, and that one is on Thursdays (Except for the one issued today, because tomorrow is a holiday). The jobless claims number is the most important economic indicator to look at because it comes out closer to real-time than any other indicator. It is only one week delayed vs. almost one month for the jobs data and 2-3 month delay for the quarterly GDP report.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Man, all this talk makes me feel even more left out. I have been eyeing SCTY since it's been it was at $18 but didn't know how to value it so I stayed away. My Roth IRA has been all mutual funds so I think I need to change that quick. I am only 27 and don't need the money for 40 years so I might as well put it in SCTY and SPWR, even if there is short term potential to the downside. I don't want to miss any more big moves.

 

[sleepyhead]

There will be big moves in solar stocks over the next month or so due to earnings releases, European tariffs, Chinese plans to move to solar etc. The question is in which direction will they move, and I am confident that they will go up.

When I look at the solar sector it is still significantly undervalued. Some companies are priced to fail (and they won't fail), and none of the companies are yet priced like growth stocks (which they are). The only company in the entire sector that is not priced on fundamentals, but rather on potential future growth, is Solarcity.

Yes, solarcity will probably turn out to be a great investment, but there are so many other stocks that can do just as well and possibly better in the short run.

 

[DaveT]

Man, all this talk makes me feel even more left out. I have been eyeing SCTY since it's been it was at $18 but didn't know how to value it so I stayed away. My Roth IRA has been all mutual funds so I think I need to change that quick. I am only 27 and don't need the money for 40 years so I might as well put it in SCTY and SPWR, even if there is short term potential to the downside. I don't want to miss any more big moves.

Yeah it was hard for me to know how to value SCTY before investing. Prior to IPO I read through their IPO prospectus, watched their roadshow presentation and researched the market. But with SolarCity it was difficult to see how much revenue they'd generate over what kind of period because they're deferring revenue with leases and post-lease they own the panels/system. The company seems to be very, very forward looking... more so than most any company I've been exposed to. It seems like they're thinking 30+ years out and building relentlessly with focus and execution.

Anyway, I eventually invested because I remember Elon Musk saying that he thought the original IPO price of $13-15 was a fair price for investors (though it IPO'ed for lower). I was hoping to get it under $10 when it IPO'ed, but it keep rising. I eventually got in at $14. Since then, I've been following all their quarterly earnings calls and they seem just so confident. It really seems like they're in position to exceed guidance for pretty much every quarter for the foreseeable future. There's really just that much demand and they're the market leader in residential solar.

After Q1 earnings when the stock was $30-35, I was really wanting to put more money into it but I completely ran out (purchasing TSLA options and such). Then, the stock made a run to $50+... and then came down after the lock-up expiration.

I think getting in at SCTY when it was recently under $35 was a super investment. Even now, if you're holding long-term, I think it could be a very good investment. Again, I think they're going to beat Q2 earnings and they're headed to profitability by the end of the year.

The main reason I have more money in TSLA than SCTY (other than I know TSLA and believe it in more) is that the solar sector tends to be a bit volatile and trendy. People used to love solar stocks, then they hated them, and now they're starting to love them again. I'm kind of worried in a few to several years if we have a downturn if the mood will sour again and solar stocks will be hit hard. Probably. But I'm sure the good ones will be much more established by then and will weather the storm. SCTY is probably one of them.