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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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according to solar city's web site, earnings are after hours on 8/7.
SolarCity Announces Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call Details (NASDAQ:SCTY)
isn't this good news?
http://www.solarcity.com/pressrelea...nities-at-Multiple-Army-Bases-in-Hawai’i.aspx
market doesn't think so?
http://www.solarcity.com/pressrelea...nities-at-Multiple-Army-Bases-in-Hawai’i.aspx
market doesn't think so?
Norse
Active Member
Now I Guess this is great News for the chinese solarpanels.
http://www.menafn.com/1093682397/EU-trade-chief-sees-speedy-end-to-China-solar-row
and
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/24/uk-eu-china-solar-idUKBRE96N0WV20130724
what to load up With Sleepy?
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It may just be coincidence but the conspiracist in me speculates the possibility that one of the companies could report below expectations, and could soften the blow to the stock if the other company reports above expectations.
For some reason these articles have not had any impact on the solar stocks. There can be several reasons for this, such as expectations of a resolution have already been priced in (last month's solar rally), the market doesn't believe it until they see it (which could spark and instant 10% - 50% rally) or the market simply doesn't like the conditions of the settlement.
IMO this settlement will be a huge win for the big Chinese Solar Companies. If you have a long term horizon (2-3 years) then load up on SOL, CSIQ, and possibly even TSL. There are other Chinese players that might do better, I don't have the time to research them all. CSIQ and SOL will be the first two to return to profitability and that is why I recommend those. The only reason I recommend TSL is because it is one of the better Chinese companies, but has been a laggard in last month's rally; this means it is next in line to go up.
Losers in this deal will be the small low quality Chinese panel suppliers as well as European EPC companies (that install solar panels).
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Just another day at the office for solar stocks. This is normal behavior for them. I wouldn't call this getting hammered, because they usually go down 6% - 10% on a bad day. 2% down is a walk in the park for the sector. Welcome to the world of investing in solar.
Norse
Active Member
The thing is if you look at most News articles it seems like they are not gonna make a deal. A Seeking Alpha article today said that talks had broken Down. One of thoose articles above are from a newsagency in the middle east, stating: "I trust that we can come to a solution in the coming days or coming weeks," EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said at a press conference in Beijing. Its weird that noone else has quotes from that press Conference
However the last article is from Reuters, but not yet picked up by to many yet.
"We are very close. Both sides want a deal," said one European source. "Even if an agreement is not in place on August 6, Chinese producers could choose to hold back their imports until there is agreement because we are so close."
I think and hope its not priced fully in yet. Like when Tesla said they made profit, but somehow ppl didnt belive it.
Im way more optimistic today then earlier regarding a deal. I just hope the market also realises this since I overbought August Calls on SOL
However the last article is from Reuters, but not yet picked up by to many yet.
"We are very close. Both sides want a deal," said one European source. "Even if an agreement is not in place on August 6, Chinese producers could choose to hold back their imports until there is agreement because we are so close."
I think and hope its not priced fully in yet. Like when Tesla said they made profit, but somehow ppl didnt belive it.
Im way more optimistic today then earlier regarding a deal. I just hope the market also realises this since I overbought August Calls on SOL
Yep, gotta expect the volatility in the solar sector.
Would recommend reading 10k annual reports and transcripts to quarterly earnings calls for all stocks you hold, esp. for those w/higher risk-reward so you know what you're getting yourself into.
Sleepy,
Thanks for your continued commentary on solar stocks. With the volatility in the solar sector, would you recommend holding stock as opposed to options in these companies, as the majority of them only have options expiring in jan 14 (as I recall, only spwr has jan 15 options).
Sleepy, Yeah i have been watching solars for a while. I was making the statement in regards to my blue chips which were up at the time. Well besides MU which ended 4% down on high volume for some unknown reason. No news at all.
On the dip down i brought in some more SOL and SPWR
MU tanks more tomorrow i think i will have to fallow the more buying i did on solar today on my blue chips tomorrow. (sold off the rest of my Intel to make these final few moves)
On the dip down i brought in some more SOL and SPWR
MU tanks more tomorrow i think i will have to fallow the more buying i did on solar today on my blue chips tomorrow. (sold off the rest of my Intel to make these final few moves)
+1 on this. I would like to get in on SOL and was thinking leaps. I would rather have the Jan 15, but I don't want to sit around and wait because it sounds like there might be some big movement surrounding this spat between the EU and China. Sleepy, you mentioned a 2-3 year time frame, but do you think we will see significant movement in the next 5 months to justify Jan 14 options over outright stock?
I am considering selling 1/2 of my tsla sept calls to buy options for spwr, but further out in time in case the stock does not go up after earnings. Looking at either jan 14 or jan 15 otm calls. The question is, how far out of the money to buy.
Yeah, I did. It seemed enough of a dip to buy some "out of the money now, but in the money yesterday" calls.
The simplest way to make money in solar is with stocks, since hardly any of them have J15 leaps available. The solar revolution is just beginning and at least some of these companies will be multi-baggers (all of them already are if you got in a few months ago), I don't know when the market will eventually figure this out; it might take them 1 month, 6 months, or 2 years. If you buy J14 options, then know that you might be a little early in the game and the options could go to $0. That said, I think that J14 options are the sweet spot (march 14 if you can find them are better) and would recommend them to those who have excess capital and can afford to lose it.
If you want a "safe" play on Chinese solar then go with J15 TSl $10 or $12 for about $1.20 - $1.60. You will either lose it all or you will have a 10-fold return.
If you don't have capital to lose, then buy some stocks. Safer picks are SPWR and SCTY. Higher risk/reward picks are SOL, CSIQ, TSL. You can always throw in some JKS, JASO, HSOL, or even RSOL if you are feeling adventurous (I don't know much about the last four companies though so do your research).
If you are looking for your best chance of making a quick buck, then go with SOL and CSIQ, but remember that there is higher risk with these than with SPWR.
I actually did buy some SPWR Aug. calls a couple of weeks back. Mine are deep OTM and will probably expire worthless unless SunPower gives stellar guidance. I know that their H2 will be great, but they sandbag too much and will probably not give out good enough guidance to get the stock booming (although I expect an upwards revision from SPWR and virtually all solar companies in Q2).
I bought my calls thinking that SPWR will continue to go up leading up to earnings. It was doing great, but right now these EU China negotiations are holding all of the solar stocks hostage over the past week. We need this resolved by Friday, so that solar stocks can continue their upswing. In the mean time it is a good time to buy. Don't wait any longer!
If you want a "safe" play on Chinese solar then go with J15 TSl $10 or $12 for about $1.20 - $1.60. You will either lose it all or you will have a 10-fold return.
If you don't have capital to lose, then buy some stocks. Safer picks are SPWR and SCTY. Higher risk/reward picks are SOL, CSIQ, TSL. You can always throw in some JKS, JASO, HSOL, or even RSOL if you are feeling adventurous (I don't know much about the last four companies though so do your research).
If you are looking for your best chance of making a quick buck, then go with SOL and CSIQ, but remember that there is higher risk with these than with SPWR.
I actually did buy some SPWR Aug. calls a couple of weeks back. Mine are deep OTM and will probably expire worthless unless SunPower gives stellar guidance. I know that their H2 will be great, but they sandbag too much and will probably not give out good enough guidance to get the stock booming (although I expect an upwards revision from SPWR and virtually all solar companies in Q2).
I bought my calls thinking that SPWR will continue to go up leading up to earnings. It was doing great, but right now these EU China negotiations are holding all of the solar stocks hostage over the past week. We need this resolved by Friday, so that solar stocks can continue their upswing. In the mean time it is a good time to buy. Don't wait any longer!
If you are a very risk tolerant person, then I think that the risk reward trade-off in solar is pretty good.
E.g. If you buy SOL at $4, I would say there is a 50% that you will double or triple your money within 12 - 18 months, 30% chance you lose 50% or more, and 20% you end up somewhere in between. To me those are great odds and a risk that I am personally willing to take. If you don't have this risk tolerance then stay away from the solar sector, not many people are able to stomach these investments and will end up selling the moment the stock is down 20%; when instead you should be buying more. Psychologically it is really hard to do.
The alternative energy revolution is real: http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/2284204/eu-urges-g20-to-phase-out-fossil-fuel-subsidies
Maybe there are better ways to make money on this, but I will stick to solar stocks which are priced to fail but IMO will become profitable within a few quarters.
E.g. If you buy SOL at $4, I would say there is a 50% that you will double or triple your money within 12 - 18 months, 30% chance you lose 50% or more, and 20% you end up somewhere in between. To me those are great odds and a risk that I am personally willing to take. If you don't have this risk tolerance then stay away from the solar sector, not many people are able to stomach these investments and will end up selling the moment the stock is down 20%; when instead you should be buying more. Psychologically it is really hard to do.
The alternative energy revolution is real: http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/2284204/eu-urges-g20-to-phase-out-fossil-fuel-subsidies
Maybe there are better ways to make money on this, but I will stick to solar stocks which are priced to fail but IMO will become profitable within a few quarters.
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