^ 8k down !! (took 2000 shares at $27.6 before earning) with 1K over margin, really hoping it goes back up tomorrow to avoid a margin call, holding as long as i can is the plan, if i must sale i would lose all the profit i have made in the past 4 months, that would suck the life out of me !! it will teach me not to play with margin so much thats for sure
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
The way I look at it is funds/institutions need to want to buy more SPWR (vs selling SPWR) for the stock price to go up. Currently I doubt if retailers have much power with the stock price.
Right now I don't see funds/institutions having incentive to buy more SPWR right now. There's no rush because of the relatively disappointing Q2 earnings report/call. I think funds would be more inclined to sell some SPWR rather than buying more right now.
I think what could entice funds/institutions to pick up more SPWR is if the price becomes cheap enough where they feel like they're getting a very good value. The question is how cheap does that have to be.
Another question is will funds/institutions view Q2 earnings as a minor speed bump that SPWR can quickly overcome and return to stellar growth prospects. Or will they see Q2 earnings as a huge warning sign that SPWR's growth trajectory has significantly slowed and as a result they're not willing to give the same growth premium as they were before, thus contracting their price expectations even more.
Personally I think the correct answer lies somewhere in between. But the markets can be brutal to companies who's growth trajectory has apparently slowed or even hints at slowing.
So it comes down to whether funds/institutions will remain believers in the growth story of SPWR and scoop up the stock while it's in the low 20s (current stock price is $24), thus increasing upward price pressure. Or will funds/institutions become skeptical of SPWR's growth story and let the price drop until the price becomes significantly lower (under $20/share or maybe even lower) to step in, or different funds/ investors step in as value investors.
Anyway, in my opinion things aren't as clear as we'd all want it to be. As there are many factors involved in how funds/institutions make their decisions.
If earnings aren't strong from other solar stocks then that could hit SPWR hard. But if earnings from other solar stocks are very strong than that will influence funds/institutions to remain believers of the SPWR growth story and step in and buy the stock.
Obviously there are other factors as well like analyst reports/upgrades/ downgrades.
Anyway, hopefully some of what I'm saying might be helpful to someone.
Update: looks like we're sharing our losses. I lost $2.2k of $11.5k invested in August calls but would have lost $8k if I didn't sell at market open and held till now (end of 8/1)
8/2 update: This morning I bought $800 worth of Aug13 21 strike puts. Plan to hold for a few days and sell.
8/5 update: This morning I closed out my Aug31 21 strike puts for a small loss.
Last edited:
Norse
Active Member
Well well. Next up is SUNE and SCTY and then SOL? Anyone have a good feeling still? 
SUNE and SOL are cheap. SCTY, not so..
SUNE and SOL are cheap. SCTY, not so..
I am down 20% on my SPWR Jan 14 options, but took the opportunity to double down on them yesterday. Like you said, paper losses only.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Unfortunately that's the nature of volatile stocks. While we all like TSLA's overall trajectory, even that swung from lows of ~$106 to highs of ~$136 just in July. SPWR, SCTY show similar percentage swings so paper losses today may become good again very quickly.
Norse
Active Member
Can any of this be true?
got it from the yahoo message board.
this guy Kevin posted the following:
"Kevin Ryan
Shared privately - Jul 1, 2013
Warren Buffett has invested 2.5 Billion dollars into this Energy company.... (SPWR) Sun Power! Sun Power is owned by this company (TOT) Total SA.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) shows tremendous promise in the field. First-quarter revenues grew by about 28% year-over-year. Furthermore, the firm is improving its overseas prospects with recent power plant contracts in Japan. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) is focusing on efforts in EMEA by working more closely with the company's parent, TOTAL S.A. (NYSE:TOT). It should be noted that Warren Buffett invested $2.5 billion into a solar plant slated to be constructed by the firm.
Obama has changed the rules at the Department of Energy to favor solar companies!
The US Senate three weeks ago passed a massive 17 billion dollar tax bill for solar companies!
Warren Buffett is Obama's financial advisor!
Sun Power (SPWR) will announce record financials in less than 35 days beating Wall Street again for the second quarter! (SPWR) will also increase guidance!
(SPWR) also has big news to announce shortly! New contracts!
SunPower Corporation (SPWR) -NasdaqGS
21.44 0.74(3.57%) 12:05PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Price target on (SPWR) $100.00"
got it from the yahoo message board.
this guy Kevin posted the following:
"Kevin Ryan
Shared privately - Jul 1, 2013
Warren Buffett has invested 2.5 Billion dollars into this Energy company.... (SPWR) Sun Power! Sun Power is owned by this company (TOT) Total SA.
SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) shows tremendous promise in the field. First-quarter revenues grew by about 28% year-over-year. Furthermore, the firm is improving its overseas prospects with recent power plant contracts in Japan. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) is focusing on efforts in EMEA by working more closely with the company's parent, TOTAL S.A. (NYSE:TOT). It should be noted that Warren Buffett invested $2.5 billion into a solar plant slated to be constructed by the firm.
Obama has changed the rules at the Department of Energy to favor solar companies!
The US Senate three weeks ago passed a massive 17 billion dollar tax bill for solar companies!
Warren Buffett is Obama's financial advisor!
Sun Power (SPWR) will announce record financials in less than 35 days beating Wall Street again for the second quarter! (SPWR) will also increase guidance!
(SPWR) also has big news to announce shortly! New contracts!
SunPower Corporation (SPWR) -NasdaqGS
21.44 0.74(3.57%) 12:05PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Price target on (SPWR) $100.00"
Norse
Active Member
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-02/buffett-utility-buys-sunpower-projects-for-2-billion.html
Buffet thing is true, never seen a price target like that tho.
My SOL August Calls needs more of thoose News
@Dave T - Good analysis on SPWR in the past couple of pages. Just wanted to point out that you incorrectly stated that without the $100m of revenue pull-in the company would have lost $80m; they pulled in revenue and not net income, they still would have beaten guidance without the pull in at least on a non-GAAP basis. And what "pulling in" really means is that they were able to finish a project ahead of schedule and recognize that revenue in Q2 vs. Q3.
I guess the lesson learned here is that you have to be careful with options when playing solar. The sector is way to volatile to put too much money into options. I think buy and hold might be the best bet. The Chinese players are still priced very cheaply, and if you believe that they will become profitable in the near future, you might as well buy some stock and hold on to it. In the mean time these stocks might go up 100% one month and then go down 30% the next month. Timing has to be impeccable with options.
I guess the lesson learned here is that you have to be careful with options when playing solar. The sector is way to volatile to put too much money into options. I think buy and hold might be the best bet. The Chinese players are still priced very cheaply, and if you believe that they will become profitable in the near future, you might as well buy some stock and hold on to it. In the mean time these stocks might go up 100% one month and then go down 30% the next month. Timing has to be impeccable with options.
Thanks Sleepyhead for the clarification.
I agree with the lesson regarding short-term options. Also, I think it's high-risk to play earnings unless we have some "first data" information (ie., ground level numbers on purchases/demand/production, etc).
Personally I see one of two main scenarios happening:
1. Solar earnings from other companies in next few weeks are stellar and it continues to fuel optimism in the sector. As a result, SPWR recovers very nicely on it's path up.
OR
2. Solar earnings are okay but aren't stellar, investor mood becomes more skeptical/hesistant, and there's a moderate near-term pullback in the sector.
Last edited:
NigelM
Recovering Member
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
kevin99
Member
My post got moved but I still like to get some comments.
I kind of stay away from the company I don't have direct first hand knowledge. Since I am interested in Scty, I sign up for service and and today is the installation day.
I talked to them about the products they are using. It is trina solar. I am still new to the solar landscape so i don't quite understand how they select the vendor. But they say they are using other vendors like Panasonic, Sanyo, just a couple of names that I remembered. No spwr, no fslr though. Any comments?
I kind of stay away from the company I don't have direct first hand knowledge. Since I am interested in Scty, I sign up for service and and today is the installation day.
I talked to them about the products they are using. It is trina solar. I am still new to the solar landscape so i don't quite understand how they select the vendor. But they say they are using other vendors like Panasonic, Sanyo, just a couple of names that I remembered. No spwr, no fslr though. Any comments?
My understanding is that Sunpower has their own dealer network you need to go through to get Sunpower panels installed. With First Solar, I believe they don't do residential solar as they're more focused on solar power plants.
How was your overall Solar City experience? Was everything convenient? Did you experience any problems or issues? Any insights for SCTY investors?
kevin99
Member
What I was impressed is the sales process. They are using the tools and technologies on par with any high tech IT company, Remote Desktop sharing, personalized project proposal and online workflow management etc, though most of these tools are commodity nowadays. Still I would suspect their efficiency is way better than pge, as they label themselves as a mobile energy utility company.
Similar threads
- Locked
