If the support level holds at $25 then we could see a slow increase the next few days from Longs adding to their positions.
The way I look at it is funds/institutions need to want to buy more SPWR (vs selling SPWR) for the stock price to go up. Currently I doubt if retailers have much power with the stock price.
Right now I don't see funds/institutions having incentive to buy more SPWR right now. There's no rush because of the relatively disappointing Q2 earnings report/call. I think funds would be more inclined to sell some SPWR rather than buying more right now.
I think what could entice funds/institutions to pick up more SPWR is if the price becomes cheap enough where they feel like they're getting a very good value. The question is how cheap does that have to be.
Another question is will funds/institutions view Q2 earnings as a minor speed bump that SPWR can quickly overcome and return to stellar growth prospects. Or will they see Q2 earnings as a huge warning sign that SPWR's growth trajectory has significantly slowed and as a result they're not willing to give the same growth premium as they were before, thus contracting their price expectations even more.
Personally I think the correct answer lies somewhere in between. But the markets can be brutal to companies who's growth trajectory has apparently slowed or even hints at slowing.
So it comes down to whether funds/institutions will remain believers in the growth story of SPWR and scoop up the stock while it's in the low 20s (current stock price is $24), thus increasing upward price pressure. Or will funds/institutions become skeptical of SPWR's growth story and let the price drop until the price becomes significantly lower (under $20/share or maybe even lower) to step in, or different funds/ investors step in as value investors.
Anyway, in my opinion things aren't as clear as we'd all want it to be. As there are many factors involved in how funds/institutions make their decisions.
If earnings aren't strong from other solar stocks then that could hit SPWR hard. But if earnings from other solar stocks are very strong than that will influence funds/institutions to remain believers of the SPWR growth story and step in and buy the stock.
Obviously there are other factors as well like analyst reports/upgrades/ downgrades.
Anyway, hopefully some of what I'm saying might be helpful to someone.
Update: looks like we're sharing our losses. I lost $2.2k of $11.5k invested in August calls but would have lost $8k if I didn't sell at market open and held till now (end of 8/1)
8/2 update: This morning I bought $800 worth of Aug13 21 strike puts. Plan to hold for a few days and sell.
8/5 update: This morning I closed out my Aug31 21 strike puts for a small loss.