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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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- TSLA
Dude, texting and driving is even more risky than investing in solar stocks. And probably illegal...
Norse
Active Member
I can say again I do not think SCTY is overvalued, but I think the upside on other solar companies might be greater. If I had scty and alot of money I would not sell SCTY, but since I havent, and I would like to go to the companies with the best upside. The reason I didnt have SCTY, was that I had to sell some stocks in a rush to get back in at Tesla on friday. I actually thought I had both stocks and options, but seems to me I sold em all last friday. If someone ask and get an answear it wouldnt allways be correct, if anyone here knew they would go margin and be millionaires in a week. Im going allin atm with my winnings from TSLA, I also used to play poker for 15 years, so I obv gamble more than others.
How about a friendly wager?
I still say that SPWR will have a higher market cap in the long run. Let's use closing price on Dec 31, 2019 as the cutoff date.
I will bet you $1. Must be delivered in person.
kevin99
Member
Money making opportunities are all good. Investors do not need to chase the highest performer, but to pick the opportunity he understands the most.
I only feel comfortable with SCTY, as I use their service. I have solar panel installed by them as part of the research.
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That said, I play a short term bear call spread on SCTY, just for the next couple of days, from a pure technical trading perspective.
Today's SCTY price action was all about FY 2014 guidance, which was stellar and beyond most anybody's expectations. It is peculiar they pre-announced this before their Q3 ER. I suspect it has to do with driving up demand for the secondary offering they still haven't closed yet (announced in early August).
borat99
Member
Pffff... There's this little feature on my phone called speech to text. It works pretty well.
Does it read the post out loud that Theshadows posted here for you as well? You know, the one that you responded to so that you didn't have to take your eyes off the road?
There is no upside to sitting on the internet while driving.
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Good luck on your play. I think that SCTY will go up 10% on Monday. Just my opinion, but I am not willing to put money on that bet.
Norse
Active Member
borat99
Member
Honestly, the only time I would read is when I'm stuck in traffic. I like how you put it ... "no upside to sitting on the internet while driving". Thanks for caring! :smile:
No worries. It actually bothers me because there is so many people that sit on their phones in morning traffic and they sit 10 car lengths or more behind the car in front of them for a safety cushion. Because of this traffic is becoming unbearable.
I think they should ban all use of mobile devices in automobiles.
Back on topic. Big week for solar next week? I say yes.
Early this morning I saw the 2014 guidance so I rushed to place my purchase order, I noticed something about the secondary but since coffee hadn't kicked in yet (4 am) I wasn't sure if that was new news or already priced in, thankfully my pre market trade was executed & todays price action was greater then I had expected, the guidance puts a strong floor under the stock & upgrades should flow next week.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
I am not confident with the idea of our politicians figuring things out over the weekend, however I've arranged my portfolio in a way that says I think they will. If I was more confident I would be buying a ton on margin. This way if they do figure it out I'm good, if they don't then I still have a bit of margin to use.
kevin99
Member
I post my experience on the Solar instillation thread. You should be able to find more info there.
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I "dare" to play it since the loss is bounded. Many time I found myself right in the end, but since being afraid of unlimited loss I can't pull off the trade. I don't have to be right on this particular one as long as statistically I am more right than wrong over the long run.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Norse
Active Member
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/solar-industry-heats-incentives-cool-225300168.html noboby in "mainstream" media talks about the chinese companies..
Been kicking myself all day for not buying back in at 28. Was waiting for a fall to 26.....lesson learned: When it's close to your limit and you're sure it will bounce back, just buy it!
That is my motto too. I never get too greedy when trying to pick up something cheap. If it is cheap enough I will buy, I never try to squeeze out that last penny before buying. Same goes on the upside. I always cash out a small portion early to lock in profits.
If you look at the SCTY options and the 52 week high's and low's, I have the low price on the Apr14 $30's and J15 $30's at $5 and $7.50, respectively. I ended up hedging them like 3 days later at more than risk free with $35's and $40's while pocketing a 30% gain.
It looks like I should have kept them undhedged, but that was like a month ago. I locked in an easy gain and my delayed construct spreads are going to net me another 125% return. One smart trader once said, "I made a lot of money trading because I always sold too soon."
I quickly recycled that capital and compounded that return anyway, so that is the beauty of these delayed construct spreads that go quickly risk free. You can continue recycling capital at a fast pace and create these spreads that will definitely end up in the money as long as we are in a bull market.
If you can create a risk free spread once a week with a 1:1 risk/reward ratio then you have a 50-bagger return in just 1 year.
That is almost impossible to do, but not really.
So the bet will be which company (SPWR vs SCTY) has the highest market cap at end of day Dec 31, 2019? Sleepyhead takes SPWR and DaveT takes SCTY. How can I resist?
Lets make a condition that the winning company has to have a market cap of $10b.
There are so many things that can happen that I wonder how we can make this fair. What if one company acquires someone big buy issuing stock, that would significantly increase market cap while not increasing shareholder return.
We can't go just on market cap. It will have to be based on closing share price as of Friday and investment return.
How about a bet which company triples return from this Friday, i.e. 300% return. So SPWR at $116 or SCTY at $188.72?
That is a more fair bet and no time frame.
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