I bought the TAN ETF awhile back at around 17. Nice thing as it's about as diversified as you can get.
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I bought the TAN ETF awhile back at around 17. Nice thing as it's about as diversified as you can get.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I added some sol today. I couldn't find any reason for the pull back. I also am seeing their name more and more and I feel this is a good thing. Csiq is by far my largest solar position. I'd like to get some more tsl.
I hold SCTY and SPWR as tops also; I added a third recently CSIQ; reasons were 1) pedigree of management and company 2) a good blend to the other 2 as they have similar SCTY model, but make their own panels in China. So this 3-some invests in best business model for systems deployment (SCTY), best R&D and panel technology leader (SPWR) and one that successfully straddles that with excellent China exposure but not a Chinese company; Then i have a small Chinese play in JKS along with a base investment in TAN for the industry at large
InTheShadows
Active Member
The order if my solar positions are.
1 csiq
2 tsl
3 sol
4 yge
5 jaso
Sol was fourth going into today but with the pullback I bought some more.
I'd like to add some more tsl and reestablish a position in SPWR. I'm hoping for a pullback in SPWR but may not get it.
My csiq position is much heavier than I wanted but I think they are the strongest tier 1 china company so I am ok with it. I didn't put any more capital into it than the others, I just had better timing and option strategy. I lost out big by selling my sol October calls I had bought 3 months ago the day before the run up last week. I still made a little in them but I could have made 3x more. Had I not done that sol would be #2 because I would have rolled half of them to apr 14. (Which is what I bought today)
As installers we have installed tsl the most, csiq, et solar, SPWR, then schott panels(when USA made was requested). Schott is no longer making crystalline panels.
I was getting killer deals on tsl panels for over a year which is why they are at the top. Now that their price is the same as the others again We have been installing csiq the most.
Keep your eyes on the news feeds next week for new solar product announcements. There is a huge conference in Chicago.
1 csiq
2 tsl
3 sol
4 yge
5 jaso
Sol was fourth going into today but with the pullback I bought some more.
I'd like to add some more tsl and reestablish a position in SPWR. I'm hoping for a pullback in SPWR but may not get it.
My csiq position is much heavier than I wanted but I think they are the strongest tier 1 china company so I am ok with it. I didn't put any more capital into it than the others, I just had better timing and option strategy. I lost out big by selling my sol October calls I had bought 3 months ago the day before the run up last week. I still made a little in them but I could have made 3x more. Had I not done that sol would be #2 because I would have rolled half of them to apr 14. (Which is what I bought today)
As installers we have installed tsl the most, csiq, et solar, SPWR, then schott panels(when USA made was requested). Schott is no longer making crystalline panels.
I was getting killer deals on tsl panels for over a year which is why they are at the top. Now that their price is the same as the others again We have been installing csiq the most.
Keep your eyes on the news feeds next week for new solar product announcements. There is a huge conference in Chicago.
The problem with TAN is like I said, you get the good with the bad. I didn't study the ETF, because I don't plan on investing in it ever again, but my understanding is that you have all solar exposure, i.e. installers, panel makers, microbinverters, poly producers, equipment makers, etc. And even though there is a bull market in solar, there is a bear market in some solar sub-categories. So you are getting the bad with the good.
I haven't researched these topics as extensively, so please do your own due diligence, but solar equipment makers such as GTAT are struggling mightily because nobody is expanding new capacity and there is no need to buy new equipment. '
I also have a feeling that the microbinverter market (SMA, PowerOne, etc.) are going to get squeezed hard. They are now enjoying really high margins, but soon there will be cheap Chinese competitors like Renesola's Micro RePlus.
Therefore if my companies, such as CSIQ, JASO, SPWR, SOL, JKS, TSL, etc. go up 300%, then TAN might go up 100%. But if my companies go down 50%, TAN will probably go down 50% or maybe even more, but most likely it will not lose a lot less than those guys.
There is really no upside in investing in TAN in my opinion. Diversification is not all that it is cracked out to be.
I haven't researched these topics as extensively, so please do your own due diligence, but solar equipment makers such as GTAT are struggling mightily because nobody is expanding new capacity and there is no need to buy new equipment. '
I also have a feeling that the microbinverter market (SMA, PowerOne, etc.) are going to get squeezed hard. They are now enjoying really high margins, but soon there will be cheap Chinese competitors like Renesola's Micro RePlus.
Therefore if my companies, such as CSIQ, JASO, SPWR, SOL, JKS, TSL, etc. go up 300%, then TAN might go up 100%. But if my companies go down 50%, TAN will probably go down 50% or maybe even more, but most likely it will not lose a lot less than those guys.
There is really no upside in investing in TAN in my opinion. Diversification is not all that it is cracked out to be.
sleepy- for your trading category of investment I agree; but for other categories of investing I disagree. TAN doesn't replace the individual company investments. Your criteria for TAN (too diversified) is the same as all diversified ETFs and so would eliminate investments in any diversified fund. TAN is very appropriate for monies not allocated to individual companies - IRAs, monies not wanting exposure to high risk, monies that seek quarterly interest (TAN currently yields 4.2%), monies in trust funds that inactively managed. etc. These investments are in addition to the category of your discussion- not in replacement. In addition, for those that want exposure to Solar without managing issues that change over time- such as micro-inversion being hit hard (a situation that will flux over the months and years). Some like a set of investment dollars applied to a decade without management of changing companies and trends. TAN portfolio mix is continuously modified by the fund management - 5 years from now the companies your invested in may not even exist and non-self managed funds will still want Solar exposure.
current TAN holdings and % -
ETFs | Guggenheim Investments
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kenliles - I just gave my honest opinion on TAN. Now, if you have an IRA that only allows you to trade mutual funds or ETF's then TAN is better than nothing if you want pure solar exposure. But I would never open such an IRA myself that doesn't allow trading in individual stocks, unless my company forced me to have one or had a 401k that only allowed to trade those instruments.
My company actually had a 401k plan that only allowed me to buy mutual funds and I lobbied hard to give us an option for a self-directed brokerage account and it is the best move I ever made. My account is up triple digits YTD and not by a trivial amount. I am hoping to hit quadruple digits by the end of the year.
You wrote:
And this is where I disagree. I think that TAN is a riskier investment in solar than simply picking a couple of companies amongst SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ, JKS, JASO, TSL, etc.
Solar imo is binary, i.e. either the stocks will have to go up a lot or they will have to go down a lot (I side with the former, but I think everyone knows that by now). So if you want to play the solar game then buy a panel manufacturer (including total solutions businesses, etc.), panel installer (scty), or a polysilicon producer. If you this and solar does take off then you will make it big and will be properly rewarded for the risk you took. Lets say that you make 200% by choosing CSIQ. If you had gone with TAN instead then you might make 50%.
But if solar doesn't take off as I expect or new capacity gets built out that compresses margins, then CSIQ might lose 50%. In this scenario I am fairly certain that TAN will also lose 50% give or take, because all solar will go down and no diversification in TAN is going to help from minimizing losses.
So what I am trying to say is that in my opinion TAN, because of its diversification, is actually a lot more risky of an investment than selecting a couple of individual (best of breed) solar companies. Or in other words is has the same downside risk but limited upside potential, i.e. a lot worse risk/reward trade-off.
Where we disagree is that you say that TAN is less risky because of its diversification, whereas I think that TAN is actually (a lot) more risky because of its diversification.
People ask for my opinion, so this is my honest opinion based on my experience of investing in TAN as well as my understanding of the solar industry. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but that is how I feel.
If you look at TAN, then it also lost 90% of its value from 2010 to 2012 just like any other solar company, so it did not provide any downside protection via diversification. Since it hit bottom it only recovered to a 200% gain and is still 70% below its 2010 price. While all of the panel makers have recovered more than 200% and I would say on average 800% and some are already reaching their 2010 price.
Just my opinion and observations. I would stay away from TAN and instead invest in panel makers/power plant builders/total solutions providers, or panel installers (I don't really do this, because I am still not convinced in this sector), or poly makers (I don't do these either, but more from lack of selection but I do invest in SOL for this reason).
My company actually had a 401k plan that only allowed me to buy mutual funds and I lobbied hard to give us an option for a self-directed brokerage account and it is the best move I ever made. My account is up triple digits YTD and not by a trivial amount. I am hoping to hit quadruple digits by the end of the year.
You wrote:
And this is where I disagree. I think that TAN is a riskier investment in solar than simply picking a couple of companies amongst SCTY, SPWR, CSIQ, JKS, JASO, TSL, etc.
Solar imo is binary, i.e. either the stocks will have to go up a lot or they will have to go down a lot (I side with the former, but I think everyone knows that by now). So if you want to play the solar game then buy a panel manufacturer (including total solutions businesses, etc.), panel installer (scty), or a polysilicon producer. If you this and solar does take off then you will make it big and will be properly rewarded for the risk you took. Lets say that you make 200% by choosing CSIQ. If you had gone with TAN instead then you might make 50%.
But if solar doesn't take off as I expect or new capacity gets built out that compresses margins, then CSIQ might lose 50%. In this scenario I am fairly certain that TAN will also lose 50% give or take, because all solar will go down and no diversification in TAN is going to help from minimizing losses.
So what I am trying to say is that in my opinion TAN, because of its diversification, is actually a lot more risky of an investment than selecting a couple of individual (best of breed) solar companies. Or in other words is has the same downside risk but limited upside potential, i.e. a lot worse risk/reward trade-off.
Where we disagree is that you say that TAN is less risky because of its diversification, whereas I think that TAN is actually (a lot) more risky because of its diversification.
People ask for my opinion, so this is my honest opinion based on my experience of investing in TAN as well as my understanding of the solar industry. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but that is how I feel.
If you look at TAN, then it also lost 90% of its value from 2010 to 2012 just like any other solar company, so it did not provide any downside protection via diversification. Since it hit bottom it only recovered to a 200% gain and is still 70% below its 2010 price. While all of the panel makers have recovered more than 200% and I would say on average 800% and some are already reaching their 2010 price.
Just my opinion and observations. I would stay away from TAN and instead invest in panel makers/power plant builders/total solutions providers, or panel installers (I don't really do this, because I am still not convinced in this sector), or poly makers (I don't do these either, but more from lack of selection but I do invest in SOL for this reason).
Appreciate the input and discussion 
I put about 25% of my TSLA into solar and so far it has outperformed Tesla, though it's just a couple months. What's probably going to kill that though is taxes. As it stands, I sold about 60% of my TSLA to finance TSLA LEAPS and solar, but the tax hit on that TSLA sale is probably going to crush any profits I make on the solar.
I'm regretting it, I think. If I'd let TSLA ride and just traded solar on margin, the only tax hit would be on the solar profit. If I'd lost money and had to pay off margin, I could sell just enough to have the losses equal the gains on the sold TSLA and have no tax hit. Granted, I'd have paid some margin, but I think that would have been the lesser of evils.
I put about 25% of my TSLA into solar and so far it has outperformed Tesla, though it's just a couple months. What's probably going to kill that though is taxes. As it stands, I sold about 60% of my TSLA to finance TSLA LEAPS and solar, but the tax hit on that TSLA sale is probably going to crush any profits I make on the solar.
I'm regretting it, I think. If I'd let TSLA ride and just traded solar on margin, the only tax hit would be on the solar profit. If I'd lost money and had to pay off margin, I could sell just enough to have the losses equal the gains on the sold TSLA and have no tax hit. Granted, I'd have paid some margin, but I think that would have been the lesser of evils.
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Yes those are good points sleepy and thanks for sharing your honest opinion about them. I can understand your perspective given where Solar (industry has been). You're right, that's the focus of the opinion difference we have. I believe Solar has just (over the last year) graduated from the pure stock picker field to a viable industry with clear leaders (who may be different in the end, but are proving to be the leaders going to next step). In a trading scenario and comparing the 2, correct picking those individual stocks will outperform no question (I'm heavily in the first 4 of your list for example).
Concurrently, I believe the industry at large has crossed a viability threshold of lock-in no turning back (the financial numbers now make it inevitable as Solar is now cheaper to deploy in Power Plant form than fossil). Those creates a stability we didn't have before allowing for an ETF to provide the downside protection in diversity if managed well (notice TAN holdings a heavily weighted to the very stocks you and I like).
It's something of a close call I guess in timing - I would not have put $ into TAN 2 years ago and barely a year ago. But now I think the Solar roll is in and is a relative good (albeit careful) bet on the industry at large. So yeah, we disagree on that (not much else though)
thanks for sharing those opinions -- and don't ever pull back from that. They are invaluable given the research, time and experience you've put in.
cheers
Norse
Active Member
Well, Asia is doing good today. Good luck in the coming week guys.
http://www.nbc29.com/story/23741399/heavy-smog-hits-north-china-city-flights-canceled Smog is so intence in China that flights get canceled.
Austin's management team said the 63-year-old singer had been treated in hospital Friday morning for the asthma attack in combination with respiratory infection. She returned to her hotel later Friday to rest, but she was unable to physically perform at her concert scheduled for Beijing on Friday evening. Her Saturday night concert in Shanghai went ahead.
Her manager, Barry Orms, said Monday that Austin, as an asthma sufferer, would have been "affected by the amount of pollution." He said that it wasn't their goal to place blame, and that "Patti has expressed our belief that the Chinese government can be a leader in this very important issue."
On the morning ahead of her concert Friday, Beijing's air was visibly polluted, with the city's environmental monitoring center warning children, the elderly and those with respiratory illnesses to reduce outdoor activity.
China's major cities have some of the world's worst smog. The government was long indifferent to the environment as it pursued economic development, but has begun launching some anti-pollution initiatives after mounting public frustration.
Last month, China's Cabinet released an action plan that aims to make a small reduction in the country's heavy reliance on coal to below 65 percent of total energy usage by 2017. According to Chinese government statistics, coal consumption accounted for 68.4 percent of total energy use in 2011.
There is no going back here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-supply-modules-saudi-120000322.html
Canadian Solar to Supply Modules to Saudi Aramco's KAPSARC Solar Power Project.
SCTY 5.60%, CSIQ 3.72%, RSOL 9.92%, FSLR 3.26% and most of the other up aout 2% premarket. Well Except JASO who wants to wait abit.
http://www.nbc29.com/story/23741399/heavy-smog-hits-north-china-city-flights-canceled Smog is so intence in China that flights get canceled.
Austin's management team said the 63-year-old singer had been treated in hospital Friday morning for the asthma attack in combination with respiratory infection. She returned to her hotel later Friday to rest, but she was unable to physically perform at her concert scheduled for Beijing on Friday evening. Her Saturday night concert in Shanghai went ahead.
Her manager, Barry Orms, said Monday that Austin, as an asthma sufferer, would have been "affected by the amount of pollution." He said that it wasn't their goal to place blame, and that "Patti has expressed our belief that the Chinese government can be a leader in this very important issue."
On the morning ahead of her concert Friday, Beijing's air was visibly polluted, with the city's environmental monitoring center warning children, the elderly and those with respiratory illnesses to reduce outdoor activity.
China's major cities have some of the world's worst smog. The government was long indifferent to the environment as it pursued economic development, but has begun launching some anti-pollution initiatives after mounting public frustration.
Last month, China's Cabinet released an action plan that aims to make a small reduction in the country's heavy reliance on coal to below 65 percent of total energy usage by 2017. According to Chinese government statistics, coal consumption accounted for 68.4 percent of total energy use in 2011.
There is no going back here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-supply-modules-saudi-120000322.html
Canadian Solar to Supply Modules to Saudi Aramco's KAPSARC Solar Power Project.
SCTY 5.60%, CSIQ 3.72%, RSOL 9.92%, FSLR 3.26% and most of the other up aout 2% premarket. Well Except JASO who wants to wait abit.
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borat99
Member
Wow, solar is on fire today again. I have so many options that I want to hedge to raise capital to buy back more options during a correction but it seems like solar is just going up every single day. I know that this can't last forever and a pullback is inevitable, but at the same time I don't want to miss out on the 5%-20% days.
I have only been investing for a little less than a decade and never invested in a stock or industry with so much upward pressure. Has anybody ever experienced a stock that has been going up every single day? Is this even possible?
Anybody here with experience investing in the tech bubble days? Would those stocks go up every day or did they also have big 10% - 20% pullbacks in between?
Any info would be greatly appreciated. Right now I feel like these stocks will continue going up every day. Normally this would not be possible, but some of these companies are still so undervalued that I don't want to miss out on a potentially huge day.
For the shares that I own it is a no-brainer: buy and hold and never let go. Absolutely no reason to trade in and out of these positions to time the market. But with options, I am at a complete loss, I already have some big gains, but feel like the biggest gains are still yet to come.
I guess it is a good problem to have, but at the same time I can lose all of my paper gains in a matter of days if not hours.
So, my question is: Can stocks go up every day with only minor (5% or less) pullbacks in between, and how long can it last?
I have only been investing for a little less than a decade and never invested in a stock or industry with so much upward pressure. Has anybody ever experienced a stock that has been going up every single day? Is this even possible?
Anybody here with experience investing in the tech bubble days? Would those stocks go up every day or did they also have big 10% - 20% pullbacks in between?
Any info would be greatly appreciated. Right now I feel like these stocks will continue going up every day. Normally this would not be possible, but some of these companies are still so undervalued that I don't want to miss out on a potentially huge day.
For the shares that I own it is a no-brainer: buy and hold and never let go. Absolutely no reason to trade in and out of these positions to time the market. But with options, I am at a complete loss, I already have some big gains, but feel like the biggest gains are still yet to come.
I guess it is a good problem to have, but at the same time I can lose all of my paper gains in a matter of days if not hours.
So, my question is: Can stocks go up every day with only minor (5% or less) pullbacks in between, and how long can it last?
Gtoffo
Member
Ths has been my dilemma for the last week... Ever since SCTY started blowing up.....every day I expect it to go down but it just keeps powering up.... At this point maybe the smartest thing to do is to wait for the trend to end before hedging the position? Don't catch a falling knife -> don't eject from a rocket taking off?
Norse
Active Member
Yes Zaxxon its great for CSIQ to get into that market, even tho their first deal wasnt that big
I feel kind of spoiled here as I only started investing because of Tesla and Solar. My first stocks was Tesla, REC and SCTY.
I guess I have been extremly lucky, and I know I can not expect this in the future in regards to other stocks.
I will not sell these stock for ages tho, as I really feel there will be an electrical revolution the next years, and we are only in the beginning.
I feel kind of spoiled here as I only started investing because of Tesla and Solar. My first stocks was Tesla, REC and SCTY.
I guess I have been extremly lucky, and I know I can not expect this in the future in regards to other stocks.
I will not sell these stock for ages tho, as I really feel there will be an electrical revolution the next years, and we are only in the beginning.
Heh, SOL has ended up being my largest solar component because it keeps sinking, so I keep adding a little more. If it doesn't turn around eventually, that's going to hurt.
SOL is a good one and I have been adding some as well. You will be rewarded eventually.
Next year there might be a poly shortage which will benefit SOL immensely. SOL will go up sooner or later, it is just a matter of time. If they meet their Q3 guidance of ASP at $0.66 and flat costs, then their guidance of 7%-9% gross margin doesn't add up and GM will have to be a lot higher, above 10%, which will mean that they are profitable. This would be enough to beat analyst estimates and spark a huge rally.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Ugh, seems I mixed something up with CSUN options and instead of January call had bought an Oct 19th call. Way I found out was seeing the shares on my account today Then again CSUN went up 11% today (some pullback now) so not complaining
Then again CSUN went up 11% today (some pullback now) so not complaining
Norse
Active Member
Anyone besides me still holding STRI? Up 7.50% on high volume.
Also some big buys on 17th October.
Also some big buys on 17th October.
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