Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[sleepyhead]

Those levels will be blown away. The whole world is entering an energy crisis and solar is very likely the only solution that makes sense.

A few weeks ago Russia started a renewable incentive plan and 90% of the funds were scooped up for solar, Russia is so far north that the solar availability levels are low. Even with them being so low it must still make sense to choose solar over wind, or the fund allotment would have gone the other way.

When those peaks were hit the only countries installing solar were some in the EU and North America. Now that Asia and the Middle East are on board we have about 10 viable solar panel manufacturers that will need to provide terra watts of panels to power our power hungry lifestyles.

+1

I like your optimism. Let's hope we are truly on a sustainable turning point this time around. The charts I've seen still puts the growth of solar year over year upto 2020 to be decent, not insane. Like we all did for Tesla, we need to build some revenue and profit models of our own for the top 5 companies in Solar.

Charts are incorrect. I can come up with my own charts and you will think that I am insane. Then in 2020, it will probably turn out that even I was way too pessimistic. 6 months ago solarbuzz had 2013 demand at 31GW, now they have it at 37GW. Next year at 50GW. Canadian solar CEO Qu predicts 100GW in 2020.

Yep, that is how fast solar is growing.

The possible problems for solar are net metering and subsidies. I know Arizona just passed legislation allowing a charge for net metering..but less than $5/month. Since you are involved with the industry what are you seeing on these fronts? Thanks Al

Edit: It appears this time around solar is a little different than a couple years ago in that many of the bigger players are going after 'power plant' building and sales.

net metering is a risk to SCTY and RSOL, other companies will be fine. Subsidies might go away; for oil and gas. Then solar will out compete on a level playing field because it is cheaper even today. 5 years from now it will be even cheaper, while oil and gas gets more expensive.

The big difference this time too is the global reach of the industry. There are many more countries embracing it now and the larger plants can now be installed making financial sense with out using net metering in markets with moderately priced electricity. In most USA markets plants over 2MW are never net metered, but are available to someone (or a group of people) that wants to form a LLC, snag a piece of land, and install a solar farm and have it online in a year as long as permitting is smooth. Then 30% tax credit and 6 year MACRS depreciation on the rest.

The high cost problem that everyone talks about is because of residential and small commercial ground systems. At these sizes economies of scale aren't really kicking in yet and ground mount systems this size are hard to sell because they are not large enough to pay for soil samples and bring in pile driving equipment to see the real material and labor cost savings.

In countries and states with high priced electricity and affordable labor solar is a slam dunk and even works with out subsidies. No other form of electricity generation works this well with out subsidies.

+1

SPWR is building a 70MW $200m plant in Chile that will sell electricity into the grid without any subsidies. Investors in this project will get paid exclusively from sales of electrons and nothing else. ROI will be very high.

 

[fjm9898]

I just want to point out TSL Jan16 LEAPS,
DITM Calls ($8 and $10)are only at a premium of a buck or two above the current stock price. $10 strike you can get for half the current stock price, bargain in my mind.
sadly open interest wasent there for me to be able to grab a few.

 

[kenliles]

And it is changing the entire playing field... As anyone from an individual to a mega-user can their own utility
Special report: Apple Tech News and Analysis

 

[Norse]

And it is changing the entire playing field... As anyone from an individual to a mega-user can their own utility
Special report: Apple Tech News and Analysis

Every big company with selfrespect should have a 50MW power plant

 

[kenliles]

Every big company with selfrespect should have a 50MW power plant

Got that right!

 

[Convert2013]

"Charts are incorrect. I can come up with my own charts and you will think that I am insane. Then in 2020, it will probably turn out that even I was way too pessimistic. 6 months ago solarbuzz had 2013 demand at 31GW, now they have it at 37GW. Next year at 50GW. Canadian solar CEO Qu predicts 100GW in 2020."

The growth is predictable till 2014. But if from 2014 to 2020 ( 5 to 6 years) all we can predict is a doubler in growth like you say then that's pretty so-so growth like I was speaking of earlier. Hoping CSIQ CEO was wayyyyy conservative in his view.

So 100 GW in today's pricing is what about $100 billion +/- ? By that time we could see some consolidation in the industry to say maybe 7 major players. If FSLR, SPWR, CSIQ, TSL, YGE, JKS and one other control 80% of that market, with say FSLR having 20% and CSIQ 10% that gives FSLR $16 billion in annual revenue and CSIQ $8 billion in annual revenue.. potentially 30% higher if CEO Qu is being conservative...pretty rough and many assumptions I know but hmmmm that's $21 billion for FSLR and $11 Billion for CSIQ in sales. Assuming they are growing at 25% per year still in 2020 what kind of market cap can these companies have by then? I am no analyst but at least I got all the experts in here some fuel to get them started..

By the way Sleepy thanks for the Solarbuzz site reference.

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I always try and figure out the potential in a company/industry longer term when I invest, with a top down view. But I end up investing at the most medium term. Since we can only kinda predict short term and medium term, with PEs where they are now for Solar do you think at least all of these companies above are at least 2-baggers in 2014? I'd like to think most of them are.

 

[chillong]

Nice beat from TSL. EPS 0.14, Revenue 548.4M

 

[Johan]

Nice, bought TSL stock yesterday as part of my retirment plan. I'm 33 years old

 

[chillong]

Nice, bought TSL stock yesterday as part of my retirment plan. I'm 33 years old

Good luck, hope it will give you the ability to retire with 36 years

 

[aznt1217]

Good luck, hope it will give you the ability to retire with 36 years

You mean at 36 lol

 

[AlMc]

Nice, bought TSL stock yesterday as part of my retirment plan. I'm 33 years old

Go Johan and others who have a stake in TSL. I have no 'skin in the game' on this one. We are all happy for each others in good times. Mine were CSIQ and JKS...and a little JASO (hopefully). Hope it is a 10%+ gain for all who hold TSL today :wink:

 

[aznt1217]

I hope for a solid run. Need to offset my TSLA losses. Sleepy, great analysis as per usual. I hope the CC is good.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Yay, bought yesterday 2015 LEAPs for TSL @ 15, 17 strikes. Had very little cash left to invest so only got total 2 calls Most of my portfolio (75%) is in solar now with CSIQ the biggest stake followed by JASO, SCTY, SPWR, SOL and TSL. Sure looks sunny here, but it'll take a while to offset the huge losses I took with Tesla (and am still taking though most of my Tesla is now in 2015/2016 LEAPs so even if they are deep in the red right now that means very little).

 

[Gtoffo]

It hurts when SCTY follows TSLA....hope it breaks off today. Now that I've sadly closed/written off most of my speculative TSLA holdings I'm almost entirely into solar....

 

[Johan]

TSL up 12,5% now in premarket. As for offsetting TSLA losses yes we can all need a dose of that, but I have decided to look at my TSLA stock as also part of my retirment plan and not let the short-term stuff bother me too much.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

TSL up 12,5% now in premarket. As for offsetting TSLA losses yes we can all need a dose of that, but I have decided to look at my TSLA stock as also part of my retirment plan and not let the short-term stuff bother me too much.

If I had stock I'd not be pissed at all But I had besides the LEAPs also some Nov/Dec/March options and those hurt like hell. Oh well it was my own fault as I did contemplate, but didn't do the proper position reduction pre-Q3 as I was way too heavy on TSLA and too much of it in short term. I did contemplate some of it and I did hedge, but not enough.

 

[sleepyhead]

It hurts when SCTY follows TSLA....hope it breaks off today. Now that I've sadly closed/written off most of my speculative TSLA holdings I'm almost entirely into solar....

I think I have said this before, but if you want to diversify away from TSLA into solar then SCTY is the worst stock to choose. The Elon Musk trade will happen from time to time (or for extended periods of time) and you can get burned twice on down days.

Those two stocks are highly correlated and do not offer much in the way of diversification. Not to mention that both have Elon Musk specific risks.

 

[Gtoffo]

I think I have said this before, but if you want to diversify away from TSLA into solar then SCTY is the worst stock to choose. The Elon Musk trade will happen from time to time (or for extended periods of time) and you can get burned twice on down days.

Those two stocks are highly correlated and do not offer much in the way of diversification. Not to mention that both have Elon Musk specific risks.

Absolutely. SCTY is a big chunk of my solar portfolio but only a part of it. Also I wouldn't consider Elon Musk as a source of risk.... while that might be true for TSLA (what if he steps down?), with regards to solar city it is almost exclusively an asset (as he has no operational roles within the company but only provides financial resources). The stock may suffer when TSLA drops big time but I'm fine at staying long at the moment (waiting for a good time to place some hedges though....might consider doing so now even though I would prefer to do so with the stock above 55-60$).

 

[spacekadet]

Did anyone listen to the TSL CC? I thought it would open higher...

 

[Clemsons2k]

Pretty much all the solars are in the red today...Makes no sense.