Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[borat99]

JA Solar - Investors - News Release

JA Solar Announces Third Quarter 2013 Results
SHANGHAI, China, Nov. 26, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq:JASO) ("JA Solar" or the "Company"), one of the world's largest manufacturers of high-performance solar power products, today announced its unaudited financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2013.

Third Quarter 2013 Highlights

Shipments were 500.2 MW, consisting of 305.0 MW of modules and module tolling, and 195.2 MW of cells and cell tolling, above the high end of the Company's previous guidance of 470 MW and an increase of 7.9% from the second quarter of 2013
Net revenue was RMB 1.8 billion ($287.3 million), compared to RMB 1.6 billion ($258.9 million) in the second quarter of 2013
Gross margin was 11.3%, compared to gross margin of 8.1% in the second quarter of 2013
Operating loss was RMB 31.6 million ($5.2 million), compared to operating loss of RMB 33.3 million ($5.4 million) in the second quarter of 2013
Net loss, which included a non-cash change in fair value of warrant derivatives of RMB 138.3 million ($22.6 million), was RMB 227.0 million ($37.1 million), compared to net loss of RMB 132.4 million ($21.6 million) in the second quarter of 2013
Loss per diluted ADS was RMB 6.77 ($1.11), compared to loss per diluted ADS of RMB 3.58 ($0.59) in the second quarter of 2013
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at the end of the quarter were RMB 2.5 billion ($401.1 million), compared to RMB 2.2 billion ($355.8 million) at the end of the second quarter of 2013
Operating cash flow was positive RMB 623.4 million ($101.9 million), compared to positive RMB 503.5 million ($82.3 million) in the second quarter of 2013
Non-GAAP net loss1 attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders in the third quarter of 2013 was RMB 90.2 million ($14.7 million), compared to a non-GAAP net loss attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders of RMB 138.8 million ($22.7 million) in the second quarter of 2013
Non-GAAP loss per diluted ADS was RMB 2.24 ($0.37), compared to Non-GAAP loss per diluted ADS of RMB 3.58 ($0.59) in the second quarter of 2013

 

[krla]

JASO Q3 letter

http://investors.jasolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=208005&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1880102&highlight=

Business Outlook
For the fourth quarter of 2013, the Company expects total cell and module shipments to be between 500 MW and 550 MW. For the full year 2013, the Company revises upwards its previous shipment guidance of between 1.7 GW and 1.9 GW to between 1.9 GW and 1.95 GW.

​

 

[Mario Kadastik]

So if I read this right, the three analyst consensus according to Yahoo is -$0.36 and JASO reported -$0.37 so essentially in line with expectation or at worst a $0.01 miss. Revenue estimate was $260M while they reported $287M so a beat. Ah, I see they changed their guidance upwards so hopefully this is considered positive. Will read the letter now.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, the GM improvement to double digits is good I think. I have though no clue what the analysts and investors were hoping for. Hopefully the recent downturn had muted expectations and it's considered a good beat with decent outlook. No 2014 guidance, but I hope someone can listen to the conf call and pick up some guidance info for 2014, I think it started 23 minutes ago?

- - - Updated - - -

60% from modules, 30% cells, now they are confused because the analyst is trying to figure out where the 10% came from

- - - Updated - - -

Haha, guess I joined at right time. Q about 2014 price. They expect about the same solar price as 2nd half 2013. Overall smaller ASP. 2-3% cost cut for silicon and 1-2% for (didn't understand, modules?).

Preliminary documents for two provinces, hope end documents by Q1 end. No new projects this year that will be recognized. They do expect for next year. Expect to develop 200MW in 2014.

They expect a little price decrease in Q1 (2-3%). Third quarter china shipments 40%. Hope to keep stable shipments in Q1, expect to grab some new markets to balance out chinese new year etc that usually are lower sales periods. They hope JP will offset that.

- - - Updated - - -

50MW worth of projects in planned development. All of them in China. Fully develop them and then transfer them.

Asked about the 8.2GW utility cap by Chinese government and that top 8 are 10GW, asked if there is risk for missing some projects. JASO expects their 200MW projects to get approval as they were mostly developed this year etc. And their further out businesses are more in even further future so not likely to be hit by the next years gap.

ASP was modules 66c, cells 37c.

- - - Updated - - -

Utilization rate right now 99% for cells. Maximum capacity 1GW for wafers, 1.8GW to module.

- - - Updated - - -

Upgrading cell and wafer capacity still ongoing. Internally contemplating module capacity expansion.

- - - Updated - - -

500-600MW facility creation takes ... (inaudible, 230M$?)

- - - Updated - - -

Mono/multi breakdown 50-50 over the year, but in recent quarter increasing multi demand. Their manufacturing can do either one relatively easily so changing the balance doesn't really add cost. CapEx evolution wise they plan to expand some of their capacity and plan to implement some new technology to increase efficiency. cell efficiency 19.3% for mono and hope for 0.3% improvement.

Guidance for FY2014 will be given at a later time (someone asked for QoQ breakdown of projects and GM).

Their underutilization penalty was 2c.

Biggest exporter to EU for cells. Can't disclose price as it's part of a confidential agreement.

- - - Updated - - -

And call closed. Sorry for the gaps, understanding chinese english is tough

 

[Muskol]

Thanks Mario for the earnings call highlights.

 

[Jhall118]

Time to lose more money

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well the news are claiming JASO missed by $0.07 in EPS, but beat revenue and raised outlook. Stock down 6%

 

[Twiddler]

Time to lose more money

I have been burned so badly on short-term earnings trades recently that I think I will abandon it for the time being. If you're wrong, you're very wrong, and if you're right with regard to earnings, you're still wrong (JASO, TSLA)

 

[Jhall118]

Don't forget Tsl! that one still makes me sad.

 

[EnergyMax]

So to turn this into a learning experience, as I'm still new to this...

I'm guessing the institutional investors already knew what JASO and TSL would report. They see limits to growth in the near term, and they're reducing their position to take their cash gains. I'm still planning to hold for the long term.

 

[Muskol]

2014 will be the year of solar capacity shortage and big profits for companies like CSIQ and JKS for sure. I think that JASO, SOL, and possibly TSL will join the big profits in 2014.

Today is one of those days where I refrain from logging into my brokerage account, stand back, and look at the longer term perspective.

 

[chillong]

I have the feeling this bloodbath is now over, added some JKS, CSIQ and SOL. Wish I would have more cash around, long-term some of these prices are just ridiculous.
The Cramer-show showed again that the market is still very much afraid of what happened 5 years ago, they don't get that the situation has changed:
- Diversified demand. Not only europe, but the whole world wants solar
- Most of the big players have diversified products, using the whole value-chain.
- $ / watt are dropping like crazy, in a lot of places we have grid-parity, demand will increase even more.
-->Think africa. This will be a very big market in the future. Electricity prices are high, demand is growing like crazy yet production is constrained.

 

[ckessel]

Ouch. The last 2 days have crossed the break even line I had in solar and it's now at a net loss. CSIQ had done so well it covered for most of the others, but even that can't counter the cumulative movements in solar over the last 10 days or so. SOL has far and away been my biggest loser. Between solar and TSLA, I'm down 60% from my portfolio high just about 6 weeks ago . All while the general market is hitting new highs.

I suppose it was all gains from TSLA originally as I cashed out my original investment, but it certainly hurts looking and thinking it'll probably take several years even at a strong double digit annual return rate just to get back to where I was 6 weeks ago.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Looks like some recovery now from the initial lows for some of the solars. Maybe some will end flat or even green today...

 

[chillong]

Looks like some recovery now from the initial lows for some of the solars. Maybe some will end flat or even green today...

JKS already 1 % up, is showing a lot of strength recently. And TSL is just a sorry story, lucky that I sold them a few weeks back.

 

[Convert2013]

Baby don't hurt me, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more...
Smart money buying up solar again..?

 

[chillong]

Baby don't hurt me, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more...
Smart money buying up solar again..?

and CSIQ in the green
wouldn't surprise me

 

[fjm9898]

Massive recovery from the big guys (JKS, CSIQ and SPWR)
TSL and SOL hit massive resistance and got stuck.
I bought more SOL on this dip. Just like many of you, I wish i had more cash to pile in today.

 

[pahar103]

It was a great buying opportunity in the first hour- csiq and spwr already up by almost 2$ since their intra-day low!

 

[fjm9898]

After that said, SOL breaks out. Headed back to greener pastures.

I swear is JASO breaks back to even today i am going to lose it, haha. TSL takes a beating after an amazing ER and JASO delivers well dont get me wrong, but not to the level that TSL did, and has a chance to shrug it off.

 

[Gtoffo]

Hat off to those who had the balls to buy into CSIQ today.....I was out and couldn't trade but would like to think that if I had the chance....I would have bought something with the stock down 6% and recovering....