Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[AlMc]

Hypothetically speaking I would have sold SCTY ay $65 and bought SPWR at $30. Since you like SCTY then keep it, because your other 5 positions don't really offer any diversification. I wouldn't sell anything other than SCTY, but you might want to keep that one. So sell a little of everything to buy some SPWR. Normally I would have said to sell TSL, but it is beaten down so much that it might be due for a rally in the near future; actually they all are.

Thanks. I bought TSL after the ER beat down. I did not hold a position in it at all till after earnings.

All these holdings are non taxable accounts: Total Solar Holdings: Divided as follows: JKS 35%, CSIQ 33%, SCTY 15%, JASO 7%, TSL 7%, SOL 3%

I am not married to any of these: My take (simplification) JKS, CSIQ build solar plants as well as panels. Good integration. Tier #1 type
SCTY: Installs and collects leasing fees, produces nothing
JASO, SOL and TSL: basically panel makers that are trying to get into solar plants Tier #1-2 or #1 wanabees

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The nice thing about the solar industry is that high level management is usually accessible. If you attend the big solar shows you can likely meet some of the VP's and possibly even the ceo's. Also watching how the employees of the companies act during these shows is a big eye opener. There is a solar hot water manufacture that we will never do business with because of their marketing gimmick they pulled at a big show last year. It was the most tasteless thing I have ever seen a major company do.

If you are spending tens of thousands of dollars investing in the solar industry it's probably a good idea to spend the $700 for a plane ticket $150 for an expo floor pass, and $400 for a night or two at a hotel.

Excellent advice. How do you rate them in order based on your industry experience? Thanks

 

[fb1259]

The most important thing is that SOL is probably the most undervalued solar stock right now and it really doesn't have any room to go lower. The market is pricing it like a failing company, but all signs point to a company that is about to turn around in a great way.

Unless something out of the ordinary happened to make SOL's future prospects look a lot less promising, there really is no room left for the stock to go down any lower; absolutely none. We will find out tomorrow, but remember that SOL is sold out of panels for at least 6 months so you would have to be an idiot to sell out and still be losing money.[/QUOTE]

I kind of agree but hey you never know. I thought that it was going to fly after the 2nd quarter since I felt it was a pretty good one. However, those shares issuances they announced a week later mess up the momentum. However, I really think all that was in preparation of this new quarter. I even believe they are going to surprise us with shipments above the 800s even thought their forecast was below that number.
I also think the revenue will be fairly higher than their forecast since the ASP was higher this quarter and as you mentioned it they had already were sold out.
I also read some local news (of course with the google translate since my mandarin is pretty bad ....CERO...) where it says that for the past few months they had been using other manufacturers to fulfill some of their orders. Which I feel is a good sign.
Oh well, lets just hope it works out. I really think SOL is a good company. It sounds to me they are doing the right thing. As you know they slowly moved to panels and other products they didn't have since that is where the money is and it seems it is working out for them. And they have a big a advantage over the other tier 1 companies since they produce their own Poly which is becoming very expensive due part to the restrictions of imports from USA.
Again, good luck to all of us tomorrow :}

 

[Convert2013]

Ever since I got into Solar (early November) I've been doubling up on my research in the industry and keeping up on news. Things can change quite quickly in this industry, and as it is the stocks are quite volatile. I own CSIQ and JKS only. Reasoning behind that: Both are Profitable and have major presence in China (China will be one of the largest markets if not the largest for solar in 2014, and Chinese companies will give preference to Chinese or extremely China-focussed solar businesses, and to the winners- that's just their mentality). I personally don't care if CSIQ has gone up 3X or 20X in 2013, it is still cheap (compared to SPWR and FSLR, CSIQ roughly has half the PE of the other two's averages). So potential for a 2-bagger medium term as long as economy holds up and solar growth holds up. Same for JKS, but it's even cheaper than CSIQ. This week there has been positive comments from Morgan Stanley (short of price targets) on solar for 2014 prospects and good news in general emanating from various Solar news outlets on the health and midterm growth prospects for the industry. The sell-off (although as painful as it has been) for the past 3 weeks was (I think) profit taking for the immense run-ups, Holiday (seasonal) selling prior to the big shopping season. I think we are seeing bargain hunters come in and pick up some shares again this week. I think we will see a slow and steady rally and am waiting for more new deals (like the one JKS signed early this week) and pre-announcements like last quarter of upward-revised revenue and profit guidance from the Chinese solars. Hoping for new highs before year end, but not expecting by a large margin from the recent highs. Good luck to all tmrw who own the sector and SOL.

 

[InTheShadows]

Excellent advice. How do you rate them in order based on your industry experience? Thanks

I haven't tracked down any of the execs of the companies that are discussed here other than SPWR when I was perusing them to become an authorized dealer.

I was really impressed with SPWR, my connection and discussion with the VP of residential sales is how we became authorized. Their processes blocked me because my proximity was too close to a competitor that was authorized. The VP overrode that and got me authorized.

I pursued a building integrated solar shingle manufacture last year to learn more about their products, I was blown off by the execs (despite my name badge saying I'm a solar integrator). After 30 mins I got tired of waiting for the VP whom was chatting it up with buddies and left. A few hours later I went back and asked for him again and was treated the same way so I left after 15 minutes of waiting. I heard them mentioned in industry news once since that time.

(After writing the above it got me curious, and they were just in the news this week... Dow Chemical Launches Makeover - WSJ.com )

Previously I haven't had the need to pursue the discussed panel manufacturers execs, I will be this year though.

 

[Muskol]

Looks like were S-O-L with SOL this morning...

 

[Jhall118]

At least this time the tanking makes sense. What horrible numbers.

 

[chillong]

Besides that big write off, what exactly is so horrible?
-[FONT=verdana, arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif] Cash Flow of [/FONT]79.6 Million (ok, minus these 34.7 million from the long term contract)? This is a less than 400 million company!

 

[Favguy]

Nothing, it's a great buying opportunity for long term investment

 

[ggies07]

Alright, just bought some CSIQ, SPWR, and TSL. Holding for the long term.....we shall see!

 

[DaveT]

Renestinka, that's what my wife has been calling SOL for the past few months.

Got out of my remaining SOL calls at market open.

 

[fb1259]

Of course I'm very very disappointed on SOL share loss this morning. However, I still think it is probably one of the best solar companies in China and I feel they are doing well. I wish they would have given us a hint of this phase 1 poly business they announced today. However, I feel once the market think it through and review the numbers, they will realize the numbers are not bad at all.
Shipments were higher as expect it as well as revenues. Also I was very glad to see the short and long term debt going down.
I think the options call with the strike price of 5 for April 14 at 50 cents look very attractive.
Great current price to get in at this time for big, big profit in the next few months. Just my opinion of course.

 

[chillong]

Of course I'm very very disappointed on SOL share loss this morning. However, I still think it is probably one of the best solar companies in China and I feel they are doing well. I wish they would have given us a hint of this phase 1 poly business they announced today. However, I feel once the market think it through and review the numbers, they will realize the numbers are not bad at all.
Shipments were higher as expect it as well as revenues. Also I was very glad to see the short and long term debt going down.
I think the options call with the strike price of 5 for April 14 at 50 cents look very attractive.
Great current price to get in at this time for big, big profit in the next few months. Just my opinion of course.

hm i bought some 3.5 April 14 at 1$, one dollar less to end ITM

 

[PeterJA]

Of course I'm very very disappointed on SOL share loss this morning. However, I still think it is probably one of the best solar companies in China and I feel they are doing well. I wish they would have given us a hint of this phase 1 poly business they announced today. However, I feel once the market think it through and review the numbers, they will realize the numbers are not bad at all.
Shipments were higher as expect it as well as revenues. Also I was very glad to see the short and long term debt going down.
I think the options call with the strike price of 5 for April 14 at 50 cents look very attractive.
Great current price to get in at this time for big, big profit in the next few months. Just my opinion of course.

Thanks fb. Any other opinions from people who have studied the company extensively?

Unless something out of the ordinary happened to make SOL's future prospects look a lot less promising, there really is no room left for the stock to go down any lower; absolutely none.

Sleepy also said things can change very quickly in solar. So have things changed for SOL? Will the failure of their poly plant really make their future prospects less promising?

 

[Jhall118]

It's hard for me to invest in a company that releases so little news, and then waits 3 months to tell us that they closed their poly plant. If I wanted to gamble, I would go to a Casino. What's the point of research?

This ER killed my faith and SOL, and I would rather put my money elsewhere.

 

[Norse]

Renestinka, that's what my wife has been calling SOL for the past few months.

Got out of my remaining SOL calls at market open.

I wish she could have posted her, so I didnt lose all that Money
After SOL CC I sold all my chinese holding. Not that I panicked, but I need to regroup.
That SOL said the Outlook in China is bad and mentioning their grid issues can be fuel for the shorts.
I am staying away here for a while. And SOL screwed us. The street knew this poly info, and thats the reason of it's behaviour lately.
They should have done a PR on that, instead of Publishing bullish SA articles With PT of 8$.

 

[sleepyhead]

Besides that big write off, what exactly is so horrible?
- Cash Flow of 79.6 Million (ok, minus these 34.7 million from the long term contract)? This is a less than 400 million company!

I think that you should take a look where that operating cash flow is coming from. There AP has gone up and that is the sole reason for positive cash flow. It is easy to to have cash flow when you don't pay bills :wink:

Try not paying your mortgage, electricity bill, and other bills one month and your cash flow, i.e. bank account, will look pretty good as well.

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Thanks fb. Any other opinions from people who have studied the company extensively?



Sleepy also said things can change very quickly in solar. So have things changed for SOL? Will the failure of their poly plant really make their future prospects less promising?

The phase 1 poly write-off will make them more profitable in the future, so it is a good thing for new shareholders. The old shareholders, myself included, were left holding the bag on that one. So it might be a very good time to buy some SOL in the near future if it goes down to $3. I still think it is a steal at $3.70 so I am holding my shares for the long run. In the short run it may go up or may go down; I really don't know.

Their OPEX is also going up a little, so it makes it harder to reach profitability. Overall, I am still bullish on the whole sector and the company, the sentiment has shifted to negative about a month ago so these stocks are suffering. The good news is that sentiment in solar stocks changes very quickly and they can rally at any time. Just today Obama announced even bigger plans for the Gov't to use renewable energy, i.e. to triple previous goals by 2020.

It's hard for me to invest in a company that releases so little news, and then waits 3 months to tell us that they closed their poly plant. If I wanted to gamble, I would go to a Casino. What's the point of research?

This ER killed my faith and SOL, and I would rather put my money elsewhere.

I kind of agree with this. A lot of people are thinking the same way, so that is the reason for the major sell-off. It could present a good buying opportunity though if you are patient. It is still a good company, just needs some (a lot of) help in the PR department.

 

[ckessel]

Ouch. I'm really regretting moving from Tesla to solar about 7 weeks ago. Granted, I went from TSLA stock to solar options (which, as I learned about trading, I know was a mistake, but I'd hoped they'd get back to break even), so the solar downturn really amplified the losses, but damn...1/4th or so of my portfolio value in smoke over the last 7 weeks. I'd quite easily be in a better position if I'd just left everything in TSLA. Sadly, SOL's done the worst by far and was one of the larger portions of my solar holdings.

 

[Clemsons2k]

It's hard for me to invest in a company that releases so little news, and then waits 3 months to tell us that they closed their poly plant. If I wanted to gamble, I would go to a Casino. What's the point of research?

This ER killed my faith and SOL, and I would rather put my money elsewhere.

This was my exact thinking last month and why I hadn't bought any SOL shares. But I went against my better judgement earlier this week and bought some shares for ER. Disappointing but I feel like its a good opportunity soon to load up at a cheaper price.

The only thing that I'm confused about is why SOL thinks China will not deliver the previously expect demand?

 

[kenliles]

The only thing that I'm confused about is why SOL thinks China will not deliver the previously expect demand?

Maybe they think it won't deliver to THEM-

 

[InTheShadows]

The sentiment shift towards solar is amazing. Sol is a relative newcomer compared to all the other companies discussed here. If you understand the market as a whole there is no way you could be a long term bear even after their lackluster ER. Writing off the whole industry because on one poor ER isn't smart in my opinion. We don't write off tesla because ford and GM had a poor ER.

Just so you know I have a good sized position in sol apr 14 at multiple strikes. I'm in the same boat as other sol option holders, but my vision for those options wasn't for this ER.

The global demand for solar is growing at such a tremendous pace that all of these larger manufactures are going to be going up. There simply isn't enough manufacturing capacity to meet the demand. As long as they have systems and processes that will guarantee that they are providing a consistent high quality product they should succeed.

I am sitting on my sol options.