Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[Clemsons2k]

I think now that the vast majority of solar ERs are over people can sit and contemplate the future demand of the industry. It seems that this ER season just kept adding negative news to the fire and brought everyone down. Now that people have placed their bets I can see the sector recovering once analysts begin putting out pieces and we hear more news like the Obama statement today.

Or atleast this is my wishful thinking

 

[chillong]

I think that you should take a look where that operating cash flow is coming from. There AP has gone up and that is the sole reason for positive cash flow. It is easy to to have cash flow when you don't pay bills :wink:

Try not paying your mortgage, electricity bill, and other bills one month and your cash flow, i.e. bank account, will look pretty good as well.

ups, totally missed that one. One can learn a lot from your balance-sheet reading skills . This huge increase is quite worrisome (although there might be a easy explanation. Somebody should have asked that question at the CC.)
What's your take on the shifting of waver production for internal usage and the time lag which will cause an improvement in module production in Q4/Q1?
To me, it looks like they wanted to give us everything bad in this quarter, but Q4 looks promising.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I think the options call with the strike price of 5 for April 14 at 50 cents look very attractive.
Great current price to get in at this time for big, big profit in the next few months. Just my opinion of course.

I had a day limit buy order at 50 cents for the April 14 $4.50 call. There was a huge demand at that price throughout the day but the ask seemed not wanting to go lower than 60 cents. Try again tomorrow...

 

[Convert2013]

Well, not sure quite what to say. Was really not expecting SOL results to impact profitable companies like CSIQ by as large as a - 4% drop. Solars with quarter after quarter losses will simply go out of business or get acquired in this crowded space. Not sure if SOL is one of them just yet, but they sure got punished like it today. Although there is no change fundamentally to the overall sector shute I could have made more money in YHOO over the last month than here (I actually owned it for several months earlier this year before purchasing TSLA). But ya'll get the point. Where are those analysts? We need to have them come out and write some bullish articles about the sector and the winners with some nice price targets.

But practically, what's the next set of bullet proof ERs to play in Tech to make up lost $s?

 

[Convert2013]

Futures looking good for Solar today. Also this news about huge solar growth in Japan:

TABLE-Japan Q3 solar cell module sales jump 231 pct yr/yr - Yahoo Finance

 

[CyberDutchie]

Futures looking good for Solar today.

Don't know what crystal ball they were looking in...solar in the crap hole again, today

 

[ckessel]

Don't know what crystal ball they were looking in...solar in the crap hole again, today

I'm going to have an awesome level of losses from solar to write off this year! :love:

 

[AlMc]

Don't know what crystal ball they were looking in...solar in the crap hole again, today

I was thinking the same thing. I read this and went quickly to check my 'green' TDAmeritrade portfolio summary to find RED Just another day for solar. I will just continue to hold my positions (OK maybe a little trim here and addition there) and ride optimistically into 2014.

 

[Subhuman]

Well, I pulled out of JASO and SOL today. Took a minor hit but nothing to bad. Decided my money will be put to better use in TSLA. Still hanging in their with CSIQ and SCTY both still in the green by quite a bit. Seems solar might slog along for a few more months before it takes off. I will regroup once I see a little more upside.

 

[sleepyhead]

Well, I pulled out of JASO and SOL today. Took a minor hit but nothing to bad. Decided my money will be put to better use in TSLA. Still hanging in their with CSIQ and SCTY both still in the green by quite a bit. Seems solar might slog along for a few more months before it takes off. I will regroup once I see a little more upside.

I don't know how to put this politely, but this is exactly the wrong way to play solar. I agree that you sold of SOL, because it has a gap to fill and might go below $2.9, but I don't see solar struggling for a few months. I have also seen a lot of people lose money on solar because they are buying on the way up near the top.

If you really want to make money in this industry you have to be able to pull the trigger during the darkest of times. I bought some more JASO today around $8.70 and even though it might go lower; I am prepared to buy a lot more if it does. I am not encouraging people to buy JASO, just using it as an example.

Solar is a really tough industry to invest in. If you (not you specificall) are setting stop losses, panic selling, etc. then you are destined to lose a lot of money. You have to have a plan and a long term investment horizon. Buy when times are looking really bad, and add more if things get even worse. Not a lot of people can stomach this kind of investment strategy, so that is why I always warn people about investing in solar.

The solar story hasn't changed one bit from last month: great times ahead for investors. The only problem is that volume dried up so the market makers are stealing money from the retail investors who tend to panic sell and set stop losses.

Buy and hold is the only way you are going to beat the market makers. But it will be a very volatile and bumpy ride; that is for sure.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I had a day limit buy order at 50 cents for the April 14 $4.50 call. There was a huge demand at that price throughout the day but the ask seemed not wanting to go lower than 60 cents. Try again tomorrow...

Glad I didn't pull the trigger yesterday, got in on these today at 35 cents, to average down my holding. Hope we see a bottom for SOL soon...

 

[Subhuman]

I don't know how to put this politely, but this is exactly the wrong way to play solar. I agree that you sold of SOL, because it has a gap to fill and might go below $2.9, but I don't see solar struggling for a few months. I have also seen a lot of people lose money on solar because they are buying on the way up near the top.

No offense taken Sleepy. I have followed you for quite sometime on here and I would be very hard press to find someone that has more knowledge about the solar industry than you. the information that you have provide on this site has been and will remain tremendously vaulable. It just came down to the finite amount of money I have to invest right now. I have been adding to my long position in TSLA in the 120's and decided with the recent bump into the 140's I wanted to get more money in sooner than later. So I have been adding to my position on the dips. In the short term my money may have indeed performed better in the solar market than in TSLA but my ultimate goal is to increase my TSLA posistion as much as possible for the long haul. I didn't want to be in a situation where the solar markets remain lack luster and TSLA has popped back to over $200. Even if I miss the beginning of the run up on solar the stock will still be able to be obtain at a resonable price. So not so much fear selling, more i just wanted to put my money somewhere else.

 

[mershaw2001]

Based on what limit knowledge I have, it sounds like with the closing of the SOL poly factory there was a fundamental change in SOL. While the other ones haven't changed in the past few weeks, the tremendous upside from owning a poly factory for SOL is gone. Am I wrong?

 

[anon]

Based on what limit knowledge I have, it sounds like with the closing of the SOL poly factory there was a fundamental change in SOL. While the other ones haven't changed in the past few weeks, the tremendous upside from owning a poly factory for SOL is gone. Am I wrong?

My understanding is that this wasn't the only factory. The other factory uses newer technology, but this old one was too expensive to run and so it is cheaper for SOL to buy extra polysilicon from elsewhere.

 

[Convert2013]

I sold out of solar first thing this morning and will wait for things to stabilize in the sector. The year is up and I need to show the boss (wife) the year was still worthwhile. I was able to play ERs for CSIQ and JKS to my benefit under a rush from TSLA coming down early November, but did not expect a downtrend so soon in the solar sector thanks to party pooper SOL. There is still plenty of liquidity in the market. For those who want to join me in a discussion on a strategy on how to recoup portions of our TSLA and Solar losses I'd welcome a discussion (on another thread). Let me know.

After a quick look at today's charts for CSIQ, JKS, TSLA, NFLX I see the same trading pattern. Initial losses then a brave recovery attempt and then followed by losses into closing. Seems like people sold off the high fliers and went and bought the big guns on Wall St due to the positive news on the economy. SOL had a totally different trading pattern today from CSIQ and JKS... it sold off steadily with no recovery. So this potentially bodes well for the winners in the Solar sector thus far-the winners are trying to break away from the joined-at-the-hips style trading pattern for solar.

 

[wishing_for_S]

Hi all. I'm looking to invest in wind energy and energy storage, but I have no idea which companies have the fundamentals to merit my investment. Any suggestions of companies I should research?

 

[Clprenz]

Hi all. I'm looking to invest in wind energy and energy storage, but I have no idea which companies have the fundamentals to merit my investment. Any suggestions of companies I should research?

Right now this thread has Solar fever. Personally I wouldn't invest in wind energy. It will be a long time till they can figure out how they can make it work. Wind turbines are plagued with maintenance, Wind companies are more sparse too.
The companies we generally recommend are: CSIQ (great price currently), SCTY, JKS, and of course TSLA. Remember, rely on your research not others. Understand the risk you can tolerate and the losses your can bare.

 

[Norse]

Right now this thread has Solar fever. Personally I wouldn't invest in wind energy. It will be a long time till they can figure out how they can make it work. Wind turbines are plagued with maintenance, Wind companies are more sparse too.
The companies we generally recommend are: CSIQ (great price currently), SCTY, JKS, and of course TSLA. Remember, rely on your research not others. Understand the risk you can tolerate and the losses your can bare.

+1000 And I Guess SPWR.

 

[sleepyhead]

+1000 And I Guess SPWR.

SPWR is a must and I still like JASO as a high/risk very high reward type of "value" play. I liked both JASO and SOL as "value" plays in the industry, but SOL turned out to be a dog. They are not truthful to shareholders and now their balance sheet is starting to look really ugly. JASO on the other hand has the best balance sheet of all Chinese solars (including CSIQ, TSL, or JKS) and they still have some underutilitization that can quickly get absorbed with increasing global demand.

Chinese news sites are reporting that JASO is hiring like crazy and that they are now running at full capacity. They also have 300MW of unused module capacity because it required manual operation, so they are automating it. JASO has also ordered new machinery from a German manufacturer that proves that they are expanding module capacity. After all they have 2.5GW of cell capacity and 1.8GW of module capacity. It makes sense to turn all of those cells into modules. They have high quality monocrystalline modules for the most part.

Comparing JASO and SOL is like the tortoise and the hare story:

JASO - will not sell modules at low margins, only does high margin sales, hence the lower utilitization rate. The company is conservative and that is why they are slightly behind on projects when compared to CSIQ or JKS, but still on level playing field with TSL and miles ahead of some others. Conservatism is also the reason for their best of breed balance sheet. Their margins have been growing steadily QoQ as well.

SOL - quick to gain market share at all cost. Sold out for a couple quarters in advance, and using outsourcing in order to increase module shipment (this yields nothing in terms of profits). Got into the poly race and lost, which is now very costly. Got into projects, but is now abandoning them because they are too capital intensive.

SOL has now become a speculative play and JASO is still a relatively safe (due to balance sheet) play. JASO had a good Q3 ER and got punished and that creates a great buying opportunity (TSL fits this category as well). SOL had a horrific Q3 ER and got punished, and rightfully so.

CSIQ, SPWR, and JKS are the safe bets, but JASO might yield the greatest return in 2014 if things continue to improve and they don't have any skeletons in their closets (risk of investing abroad).

 

[Norse]

I will probably buy alot of JASO when thing settles. I am done With SOL.

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...ina-jinko-most-vulnerable-says-credit-suisse/

China Solar Demand Questionable; Yingli, Trina, Jinko Most Vulnerable, Says Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse has placed its China solar models under review and may come out with revised (lower) price targets when the government’s draft proposal firms up.

Yingli is down 5.5%, Trina Solar is down 1.8%, and Jinko Solar is down 2% this morning.