Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

[Mario Kadastik]

Am I the only one who takes this as a further evidence of the JV with Tesla on the gigafactory? The delay sounds too perfect to be a coincidence. And what precisely lacked in the guidance? They reaffirmed the 475-525MW 2014 installation plan.

 

[772]

The call and presentation are up:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-14LQRE/2976179084x0x728253/cff5a49c-e460-46f6-ae48-42f4739451a1/SCTY_4Q13_Operating_Metrics_Presentation_-_Draft3.pdf

http://www.media-server.com/m/p/fh7cn43j

 

[FluxCap]

Edit: corrected.

Now he's talking about energy storage! Hmm, wonder which company could help with that...

 

[772]

COO, not CEO, and it already happened.

 

[FluxCap]

Ah roger, thanks.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Its a way to land on 0 and so everyone loses if they are playing weekly options. If the stock doenst move anywhere, there will be ALOT of very mad people.

i remember having puts on zales, and the morning of the report they postponed it for a month. it really hurt my puts value. i am very surprised by this, at what point did they realize they could not report, and why did they not give notice. i hope this does not rub off on Elon. people traded today on the expectation of results.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

While I too traded weeklies I have also LEAPs and think punishing a stock because it showed the middle finger to weekly traders is childish. Trading weeklies is gambling and not investing hence burning those who do gamble is normal and should never be held against the company. And I'm saying that as someone who holds Friday $80 calls.

 

[Cameron]

I got burned last week on weeklies as I thought we would get more of a pop in conjunction with Tesla. Thankfully I also bought some March 22nd calls which I may double down on this week if we see any significant dip. IMO it is VERY obvious this all has to do with the giga-factory and we are still going to see a 10%+ move upward once the news is released.

 

[ckessel]

I got burned last week on weeklies as I thought we would get more of a pop in conjunction with Tesla. Thankfully I also bought some March 22nd calls which I may double down on this week if we see any significant dip. IMO it is VERY obvious this all has to do with the giga-factory and we are still going to see a 10%+ move upward once the news is released.

Yea +1, I wouldn't give up on the SCTY weeklies yet. Tesla said they'd be talking about the gigafactory this week and presumably that's going to name SCTY in it somehow.

 

[772]

I'll be buying more LEAPS on a sell-off too (currently have July $100s and Jan '16 $150s). I took only a small position pre-earnings.

- - - Updated - - -

Some notable points from Q&A:

1. Retained value estimates for 2014: expects gradual increases but not as fast as in the past.

2. Securitization: Deals are getting done faster now, and with increased financial markets participation, SCTYs costs are coming down too.

3. Guidance: Can't give guidance on mix of residential vs. commercial in Q1. Now says ~400-425 MW residential vs 80-100 MW commercial for FY14

4. International expansion: Debating whether to do it this year or next, since there is still so much opportunity in the US.

 

[kenliles]

agreed- silly drop. I will be moving up leverage (up strike and out) on J15, J16 LEAPS. Similar $s but higher leverage

 

[AlMc]

Since I am not able to follow in real time I placed buy order for $74 in entended market. I am confident in SCTY.

 

[mershaw2001]

I'm pretty happy with the SCTY fall, and not to be an ass, but I hope it continues tomorrow. I posted my existing position (Long deep in the money calls, short at the money and above the money calls). I'd like to see that pull back continue to the high 60's and then I'll advance my short calls by rolling them up and out to be net long. I was surprised there wasn't more of a fall from the supposed lockup expiration a week ago, and my short call position has been losing me money since then. Also, I was again surprised the ITC decision on taiwanese panels didn't take the stock down a notch.

 

[austinEV]

It's $75 AH, which is barely down in the grand scheme of things. That is where it was trading most of last week. You just lose today maybe. AH tends to exaggerate things so maybe it will be down half that in regular trading tomorrow?

 

[sleepyhead]

The delay in reporting has absolutely nothing to do with gigafactory announcement. They clearly stated the reason for the delay, i.e. M&A activity.

M&A accounting is very complex and they probably got it wrong, the auditor pointed this out, but they weren't able to correct it in time. This is just speculation on my part, but it is a possibility. What isn't possible is delaying GAAP results due to gigafactory announcement, because that doesn't make any sense at all.

 

[mershaw2001]

It's $75 AH, which is barely down in the grand scheme of things. That is where it was trading most of last week. You just lose today maybe. AH tends to exaggerate things so maybe it will be down half that in regular trading tomorrow?

It does seem like it might end up positive tomorrow.

 

[AlMc]

It does seem like it might end up positive tomorrow.

Hope you are right. 'The market' does not like uncertainty. The most recent example is TSLA. I think TSLA would have been over $220 after ER/guidance if the 'gigafactory' talk was not postponed. Given a couple days and more speculation that dilution of shares for gigafactory (and/or speculation on partners) TSLA has been able to approach those prices but I still think it would be higher, and going higher, with no questions about the factory hanging over the stock/company.

 

[callnaveen]

Any guesses on FSLR ER tomorrow? Any price targets or price movements or stock movement experience after the CC?

 

[Norse]

The delay in reporting has absolutely nothing to do with gigafactory announcement. They clearly stated the reason for the delay, i.e. M&A activity.

M&A accounting is very complex and they probably got it wrong, the auditor pointed this out, but they weren't able to correct it in time. This is just speculation on my part, but it is a possibility. What isn't possible is delaying GAAP results due to gigafactory announcement, because that doesn't make any sense at all.

I agree, and I would reckon they would mention the giga factory in the ER id they were partners.

 

[callnaveen]

What would be effect of this (SCTY ER) delay on Gigafactory anouncement which is scheduled for this week, anyone has any idea?