I got into WLCDF also, but reduced my position after the big run up to reduce risk. Did you see the note that they posted that they have no idea what is going on with the unusual trading activity?
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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I got into WLCDF also, but reduced my position after the big run up to reduce risk. Did you see the note that they posted that they have no idea what is going on with the unusual trading activity?
I don't buy that. It's already going several days now. They should know it by know!
Edit:
Recently, officials in Reno, Nev., told a local newspaper that Tesla officials had scouted the area as a possible location for a battery plant. A person familiar with the situation said Tesla officials are considering the Reno area for its plant, but didn't have other details. Reno is home to a startup lithium mining-and-production operation owned by Western Lithium USA Corp. WLC.T +30.19% The miner is developing a pilot plant to create lithium carbonate, a key ingredient in making lithium-ion batteries.
Jay Chmelauskas, Western Lithium's chief executive, said his company's intention is to become a major supplier of lithium to U.S. battery manufacturers. When asked whether Western could be a provider to the "gigafactory," he said "we have the right address," without confirming discussions with Tesla, specifically.
Source: Panasonic, Tesla in Talks on Battery Factory - WSJ.com
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I got into Western Lithium a few years ago, around $1.40, so not great timing, but I thought some exposure to US based lithium production might be a good idea. This run up on rumors will obviously tank if it turns out not to be true, but I'm staying in for the ride. Small position anyway.
I will have a long reply to you, but could you please tell me what the annual increase in lease payments is going to be?
Obviously this is a high risk/reward investment. The recent rise is definitely speculative on the potential lithium supply they can generate, IMO and less so on the land being near a potential Gigabattery factory. Volumes trading the last few days have been huge.
Personally I do not find lithium companies interesting. First of all almost none of them do straight lithium, mostly they do other things as well, which means they can be affected by other industries. If this lithium company is partially focused on oil products, then what we're hoping for - a rise in lithium due to increasing electric cars - will accompany a decrease in demand for oil which will hurt another part of their business. Further, last year a lot of llithium companies all dropped like 30% in a day because some potash cartel was broken up in Eastern Europe, which seems as far as you can get from an EV battery play, but most of them were diversified into that industry and that shook things up.
Not to mention, what's the point? All they do is mine things. It's boring. To me anyway. I can see how this one might be a bit more interesting due to the rumors of being involved in the battery factory...but rumors are rumors after all.
So I feel like exposing oneself to too much of this particular stock, which is close to a penny stock (49m cap after this runup), could be folly. I mean, sure, it could go up too, but y'know, don't put in money you can't lose and whatnot, and don't start planning a retirement around it. But then I don't know a lot about WLCDF, this is just sort of the idea I've gotten whenever I've casually looked into lithium stocks over the last year or two.
TSLA and SCTY, long term, though, I think you can be a lot more sure of. And SPWR, etc.
And....segue...can we put JASO in that category of safer bets? I have some March 9 calls which I'm up on ~50% as of today, thinking of offloading them. What's everyone doing with similar time/strike options? My March 12s are quite under :-/ And my gains on the 9s aren't enough to cover my losses on the 12s (but not by toooo much).
Not to mention, what's the point? All they do is mine things. It's boring. To me anyway. I can see how this one might be a bit more interesting due to the rumors of being involved in the battery factory...but rumors are rumors after all.
So I feel like exposing oneself to too much of this particular stock, which is close to a penny stock (49m cap after this runup), could be folly. I mean, sure, it could go up too, but y'know, don't put in money you can't lose and whatnot, and don't start planning a retirement around it. But then I don't know a lot about WLCDF, this is just sort of the idea I've gotten whenever I've casually looked into lithium stocks over the last year or two.
TSLA and SCTY, long term, though, I think you can be a lot more sure of. And SPWR, etc.
And....segue...can we put JASO in that category of safer bets? I have some March 9 calls which I'm up on ~50% as of today, thinking of offloading them. What's everyone doing with similar time/strike options? My March 12s are quite under :-/ And my gains on the 9s aren't enough to cover my losses on the 12s (but not by toooo much).
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Anyone want to guess who will be putting up all those acres of panels pictured on page 3 of this PDF: http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf
Can I get a S-C-T-Y?!
Can I get a S-C-T-Y?!
pz1975
Active Member
Nice one! I grabbed some SCTY calls before close today...just had a feeling. We'll see what effect this will have on it since there is no specific SCTY mention in the release.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread)
Just my imagination running free. More of a long term positive catalyst I suppose. Not only for SCTY but for solar panel makers as a whole. The future of manufacturing is to have solar panels cover the factory + an area at least as big as the factory??? Go figure.
Just my imagination running free. More of a long term positive catalyst I suppose. Not only for SCTY but for solar panel makers as a whole. The future of manufacturing is to have solar panels cover the factory + an area at least as big as the factory??? Go figure.
Totally agree with all your points. I have to admit though that I don't care if it is boring. I did not invest for excitement but for price appreciation. This thing may totally blow up and I am out 3K but it could also offer an excellent return.
borat99
Member
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I have a separate question which may be a bit newbie on the solars. If SPWR is producing 300+W panels in their X series, then what is the competitive edge of the others? I know we're all very fond of CSIQ and JASO etc, but what gives their panels an edge in comparison. I'd guess two main components. Firstly SPWR is probably limited in volume how many 300+W panels they can produce. The second is possibly price / W. I'm guessing the form factor is about the same so W / m2, would be in SPWR favor, which may not matter for industrial installations if the price per W is lower. As I don't know the retail or volume pricing of the panels it's hard to guess. I think TheShadows could possibly answer this somewhat.
This question has two reasons behind it. Firstly as an investor I'm trying to figure out a bit more on the products (though management and execution matter a lot as well, one of the reasons I'm deep in CSIQ LEAPs and low valuation provides good opportunities of growth hence why I'm deep in JASO LEAPs as well) as well as am planning a solar installation for my home at some point (hoping to get my solar stocks to pay for it easily). Btw do we have a thread somewhere about what to build at home, the best equipment from panels to inverters etc?
This question has two reasons behind it. Firstly as an investor I'm trying to figure out a bit more on the products (though management and execution matter a lot as well, one of the reasons I'm deep in CSIQ LEAPs and low valuation provides good opportunities of growth hence why I'm deep in JASO LEAPs as well) as well as am planning a solar installation for my home at some point (hoping to get my solar stocks to pay for it easily). Btw do we have a thread somewhere about what to build at home, the best equipment from panels to inverters etc?
The WSJ is turning bullish on solar? Here is a good article to read, but since it is behind a pay wall you have to google the title and then click on the WSJ link to read the whole thing (you can do this a handful of times per month to read WSJ articles for free):
Google this:
Google this:
Investors Take a New Shine to Solar
InTheShadows
Active Member
Almost everybody else is making 300+ watt panels too. They are all physically larger. Instead of 16sqft per panel they are 20sqft. 72 cell panels vs 96 cell panels.
Sunpower does have a lot of efficiency advantages though because of their patented Maxeon technology.
If you plan on living in your house a long time then I would recommend using SunPower panels with the PowerOne inverters.
Other companies make panels cheaper, and they are competitive for that reason. The Chinese companies are making panels for as low as $0.50/W whereas SPWR makes them for a little more (I don't know exactly the number because they don't provide it, but I remember them talking about some numbers around $0.80/W but it could be a lot different).
Some people claim that solar panels are commodities and will buy the cheapest panel per watt. But the truth is that longevity and degradation play a huge role and people tend to be ignorant about these things.
SPWR said that their new plant will make cells 10% more efficient and bring the cost per watt down by 35%. So they should be able to catch up on price very quickly to Chinese competitors, because they can't bring their costs down by 35% next year, maybe 10% if they are really lucky. That is why I am a big believer in the company and think that it will be a long term big time winner. I think that SPWR will be a 10-bagger over the next decade or so.
Let me just add that SPWR has a 25 year product and production warranty, while Chinese have 10 year product and 25 year production warranty, so if your panel breaks after 10 years, you are SOL.
I am putting a Sunpower system on my roof next week.
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Sorry, but I don't really have time to make the full response to your post that I wanted, but wanted to point out that you just proved my point on what I said about Solar City customers:
You do not understand the concept of payback period, and that is probably why you signed the lease thinking that you got a good deal. Your payback period is not 5 years or 2.5 years as you stated, but rather 13 years. And that is ignoring degradation, which could make your payback period worse offset by higher electricity prices in the future, so it is a wash.
You are going to pay roughly $23k over 20 years, and then Solar City takes the system away from you or you have to continue paying. Even though Lyndon Rive said today that expected system life is 30-35 years (and probably 40 - 50 years with a SunPower system). So you do not get the benefit of getting free electricity after the system is paid off. Solar City also "steals" the tax credit from you and gets the benefit of it.
Here is a quote someone posted on a solar forum, and it is in the same city as you live in Chandler, AZ:
Utility: SRP
(40) Bosch Aleo s79 265 Mono Black Panels
(2) SMA5000TL Inverters
System Cost: $30,740.00
SRP Rebate: ($500.00)
Out of Pocket: $30,240
Tax Credits: $10,222.00
Net Cost: $20,818.00
System Size: 10.6 kW
First year production: 18,743 kWh
Current Annual Usage: 19,500 kWh
He will pay $21k for his system, while you pay $23k; factoring in time value of money (or interest expense on a loan) lets call it a wash.
But your system is 7.92kW and his is 10.6kW, so he is getting a 33% bigger system for the same cost.
I have said this many times, but people always seem to pretend to be ignorant on this topic: you do not have to pay cash up front for a solar system; their are many loan options available. I got a 5 year 3% loan for my system from a credit union. I googled credit union solar loan and first link I hit had 4.24% loans for 5 years or 5.74% loans for 7 years. You can also take a HELOC loan out.
Lastly, while this guy will enjoy a 33% bigger system than yours for roughly the same price, he will get to use that system for free after the 20 year period is up which you don't get. So he will get another 10-15 years on average of usage.
Add all of this up and this guy is saving over $30k - $40k more than you are over the 30 - 35 year period.
And lastly if he were to decide to sell his house, say 10 years from now, his solar system will probably add at least $10k to the selling price. While your lease system becomes a liability.
Oh, and by the way I am putting up a 7.68kW Sunpower system for about $9,000 after tax credit and utility rebate; and this is in not solar friendly Texas. I will get to use the system for at least 25 years fully warrantied (except for maybe the inverter that might be 10 years, but those are relatively cheap) and possibly up to 50 years with very minimal degradation compared to the cheap Chinese solar panels that Solar City uses. Guaranteed 87% of original production after 25 years (their tests show better results than that).
Lastly, I am not trying to say that SCTY is a bad stock, because I am sure that there are plenty of ignorant people that will gladly sign up to lease the system when Solar City shows them that they are going to save you $50/month or $20k over the life of the lease. It sounds like a good deal, until you go shopping around and realize that you can buy a solar system that will save you twice as much over the life of the system.
Solar City will need to keep cutting costs and offer the systems a lot cheaper in the future to become a good financial option; and I am sure that they will be able to do this. But I am pointing all of this out for those who are considering putting a solar system on their roof. Please do not sign a lease with Solar City, it really is a bad deal financially. Find a way to finance a system and buy it, so that you own it.
You will save tens of thousands of dollars if you buy a system instead of leasing.
I'm really curious about this. My wife is a realtor and I'm in the real estate development business, but we have not yet encountered a leased solar system. What happens in the event of sale, is SCTY obligated to come rip the system off the house it was installed on? Does it convey to new owner somehow?
Congrats on your forthcoming solar system, Sleepy. I hope all the rooftops in the land are covered in them them someday.
From What is Solar Energy - Solar Energy Pros and Cons - SolarCity
What if I move to a new home before the end of the SolarLease?
You can pass on the solar system to the new owners in two ways. The great thing about either of these options is that solar homes typically have a higher resale value, because their lowered electricity costs.
- You can transfer the SolarLease to the new homeowners if they qualify with excellent credit.
- You can also prepay the lease and include it in the asking price.
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