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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
- Thread starter ShortSlaver
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Haha. I must confess, I invested in SCTY for the first time two weeks ago. I bought one march call contract and sold it today for a 50% gain. I bought it for a gifafactory play. However partners were not announced so I sold it today.
I feel like I am spoiled because 50% gains in two weeks "almost" seem disappointing. I was talking with a friend the other week and I said one of our options only got a 200% gain and he gasped and said "ONLY??? What kinda of returns have you been getting to say only to a 200% gain?".
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
For those interested in this angle, there is a new article in today's WSJ about grid security: Transformers Expose Limits in Securing Power Grid. They talk at length about how hard it is to replace transformers and how long it takes. They point out that the biggest of the transformers in use can be built by only one manufacturer in the U.S., and only three or four are capable of making the large sizes that experts see as likely sabotage targets.
This issue seems to be getting more visibility in the mainstream press, and I think Solar manufacturers should really give it a more prominent place in their marketing efforts. I'm not one for fear mongering to increase sales (or for any reason), but the current state of complacency isn't warranted either. Solar + battery storage buys you so much more than lower electricity bills, and I suspect many people who don't think of themselves as "green" would seriously consider such a system for peace of mind.
This issue seems to be getting more visibility in the mainstream press, and I think Solar manufacturers should really give it a more prominent place in their marketing efforts. I'm not one for fear mongering to increase sales (or for any reason), but the current state of complacency isn't warranted either. Solar + battery storage buys you so much more than lower electricity bills, and I suspect many people who don't think of themselves as "green" would seriously consider such a system for peace of mind.
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Adding an EV to the solar + battery mix takes you up the next level in security, too -- gasoline pumps don't work with no electricity, as residents of New Jersey and Long Island discovered after Hurricane Sandy.
The high-voltage transmission network is highly vulnerable. One could (arguably) lock down the transformer stations at fairly low cost, but the towers? No way. Of course those are easier to replace than transformers, but you could wreak havoc easily enough. There's also a lot of concern about hacking into the software that controls power plants and/or power grids -- the easiest way to blow up transformers or take down power lines is to overload them seriously, which could all be done by software.
The good news is that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and other agencies are taking this threat seriously. I'm sure it creates some investment opportunities, though I don't know where.
The high-voltage transmission network is highly vulnerable. One could (arguably) lock down the transformer stations at fairly low cost, but the towers? No way. Of course those are easier to replace than transformers, but you could wreak havoc easily enough. There's also a lot of concern about hacking into the software that controls power plants and/or power grids -- the easiest way to blow up transformers or take down power lines is to overload them seriously, which could all be done by software.
The good news is that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and other agencies are taking this threat seriously. I'm sure it creates some investment opportunities, though I don't know where.
According to my salesman from SCTY, there are future plans for Tesla owners to use the car batteries as backup with their SCTY systems. Meaning the current could flow in and back out of the car, either way. I have had my SCTY system in for 8 months, I was offered the back-up battery, but then he said, "you don't really need it, there will be a way to use your car at some point".
InTheShadows
Active Member
Elon is on record saying they will not be doing this. It was in one of the videos from his European tour last month.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yup, and unfortunately I understand why. Sending power from the car back to your home, and potentially the grid, can open up a nightmare of liability exposure. Some sort of legislation would have to be in place protecting the vehicle manufacturer.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I think it could technically be done with an external inverter that would disconnect from the grid in the event of a power outage just like the sma sunny island does now. I think there is a direct connection from the charge port to the battery for the superchargers, those same pins could be used to feed the battery side of the inverter. Having it coupled with the charge controller would be awesome too, then you could charge your car with straight DC at whatever the max system size was that the system was installed to handle. It would be awesome to recharge at 38kw for a standard 200a service feed and have your house on the emergency backup side for when you car is hooked up at home.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure, the technology is relatively easy, but I can see how at this point Tesla wouldn't even want a hint of risk of the car causing issues in a house.
palmer_md
Member
I bought some yesterday at $31.40, and it was not looking so good, today it looks like a much better decision.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Bought JKS Sep14 $35 calls yesterday, as oppsosed to adding JKS stock. Looks good, up 30% so far today. Also been wanting to get in JASO eyfor a while now (no stock yet) and decided to get LEAPs yesterday, Jan15 $15 calls, low volume on those so not obvious what they would sell for but stock is up 7% right now. Any pullback in solar is a buying opportunity.
Oh yeah CSIQ Jan15 $30 calls will be rolled up on next pullback I think.
Oh yeah CSIQ Jan15 $30 calls will be rolled up on next pullback I think.
pz1975
Active Member
I bought a bunch of Mar22 JKS calls before close yesterday - just seemed inevitable that the market would eventually reward them for the blow-out ER. Maybe JKS is the best bet for the multi-bagger this year as it used to trade with CSIQ but has been left behind and has a market cap 2.5x less than CSIQ. Probably should be closer in value.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Really? If I keep the same $-ammount invested and roll to further OTM calls I'd think the one's I roll to will drop more in price (on a pullback), relatively speaking, than the ITM one's I'm holding, thereby increasing my exposure if I roll on a dip rather than a peak?
Closer in share price yes, but not close in market cap. CSIQ is still worth a lot more than JKS.
pz1975
Active Member
kenliles just posted a tutorial on doing this in the advanced options trading thread.
What you say is correct (maybe), but the further out options have lower delta. Also it is about rolling to get the most bang for your buck. If you roll now the $30s into 40$ you might get 2 $40s for every $30. But if the stock goes up another 20%, you might get 2.5 $40s for every $30. Numbers are completely made up and not even wild guesses, but I think you get the point.
kenliles - correct me if I am wrong, because I never really use this strategy. I only roll up my short calls, and those I always do on a pullback, so the long calls have to be the opposite to make sense.
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