Chickenlittle
Banned
Spwr large move on tariff and new contract. They are taking a page out of musk book and issuing convertable bond. Be interesting how market takes that
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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
SolarCity COO said in the Q1 earning call that tariff issues is hedged.
"At our scale, purchasing has not been a problem. We have not seen any increase in module costs. Again, we have a scale, which makes a big, big difference to buyers. We have got a number of very active conversations with Chinese and non-Chinese suppliers for long-term volume equipments in the low $0.70 per watt for modules, which headed us very against any tariff issues. So we feel good about that. And as I said, the operating cost on a like-for-like base will be continuing to decline quarter-on-quarter and we expect that to continue. As Lyndon said, we continue driving more volume to our fixed infrastructure or dollars per watt continue coming down."
And July it gets worse when we add anti dumping penalties, effectively shutting down our market even more.
FUBAR
One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest
"SolarCity and REC Group Sign 100 Megawatt OEM Supply Agreement With Option to Increase to 240 MW"
installers are moving away from Chinese solar panels?
So from the Short-Term Investors Thread: SolarWorld : Clean cars need clean energy: Cooperation between Tesla and SolarWorld
Say whaaaaaaaat!?! Did you guys know about this? So the company that is suing to make changes to the solar world in the US is partnering up with Tesla?
Say whaaaaaaaat!?! Did you guys know about this? So the company that is suing to make changes to the solar world in the US is partnering up with Tesla?
in fact, tariff on Chinese panels will kill all the small solar installers, which is good for long term SolarCity's business, because SolarCity has economies of scale, and will get good pricing on non-Chinese made panels.
although true from a micro-SCTY standpoint. A macro SCTY business would do much better long term if the Solar market expanded very rapidly in the US for all players (similar to Tesla for EVs)- the tariffs hurt that; and another big one coming in July- all we're doing is hurting SCTY potential by slowing the market expansion imho
yep- it's a political hack job all around by all parties;
the good side is that it signifies a innate belief Solar is going to take over power production and everybody wants a piece of it - so we all fight for the desert before the main course is served
This sentence could not be further from the truth. Can we stop with this SCTY cheerleading nonsense here on TMC already? As soon as 1 SCTY chearleder gets banned a new one pops up spewing the same nonsense as the one before. It is getting quite annoying already.
Nobody is going out of business, and let's not use words such as "fact". Let's stop pretending that these tariffs benefit SCTY, since they are hurt this most by tariffs, as evidenced by their 50% stock slide.
This debate will land in 'snippiness' sooner than later guys if it becomes personal.
How long are we going to allow the same person to create multiple identities on TMC and continue spewing the same false information on SCTY?
It is pretty obvious that we are dealing with the same person here. You can tell by the tone of the posts, the exact same style, and the exact same SCTY can do no wrong attitude. Everything that happens in the world is a benefit to SCTY:
- A recession will benefit SCTY immensely
- New tariffs on SCTY's raw material is a huge benefit to them.
- More competition is a benefit to them
- Less competition is a benefit to them
- If the wind blows from the southeast in northeast corner of Tanzania, it is obviously a huge benefit to SCTY.
None of this irresponsible SCTY stock pumping is doing anyone here any favors. People on TMC are interested in finding good investment opportunities and like to know the downside as well. But if we keep pretending like every SCTY negative is a positive and every SCTY risk is a complete non-issue, then that is setting up a lot of people for failure and a lot of people will lose money on SCTY when things go wrong.
DaveH right of the bat started bashing Chinese solar stocks with his second post; first post was about praising SCTY of course. Then the trend is exactly the same as with the other SCTY trolls who all created an account one after another, as one would dissappear (probably after getting banned or wearing out his/her welcome) a new member pops right up with the exact same posting style and in some cases with a very similar looking name.
It is all the same person trolling here.
How about we look at some facts instead of making stuff up and calling it a "fact":
Fact 1 - SCTY can sell you a system for about $4-$4.50/W. A local installer can sell you that exact same system for $2.70-$3.00/W
Fact 2 - A solar tariff means that SCTY will have to pay $0.10 - $0.20 more for panels and local installers will pay that much more as well (both compared to how much they were paying before).
Fact 3 - Post tariffs a local installer will sell a system for $3/W instead of $2.85/W, which is still significantly lower than what SCTY can offer. Why is that? Hmm, maybe fact 4 has an answer for that:
Fact 4 - SCTY DOES NOT HAVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE! It has a bloated corporate structure. Maybe one day it will have economies of scale; I really don't know, but I am extremely doubtful that it will. It does get to save maybe $0.05-$0.10/W on panel costs and maybe $0.01-$0.02/W on inverters, and maybe a few pennies on racking and other materials. But it has a huge bloated corporate structure that more than offsets those savings by half an order of magnitude. It's SG&A and Interest Expense was $88m last quarter and they delivered a little over 100MW. That is $0.80/W of unnecessary bulls*** costs that local installers do not have to pay for. This bloated corporate structure will make it impossible for SCTY to be competitive in the future. Also, it is not like the SG&A cost per watt is declining with scale. It is growing out of control and just by eyeballing it, the ratio is pretty constant over the past several quarters even though installations have grown significantly (I will run numbers later when I have time).
Fact 5 - The Sunshot Scenario is envisioning solar installed at $1/W by 2020 and $1.50/W for residential. If SCTY is still paying $0.80/W for SG&A costs, then the company is royally screwed and will go bankrupt with its current business model
My opinion is that SCTY will be fine and prosper, but they are going to have to adapt and change their business model several more times in the future to stay relevant. They can prosper for now, while taking away tax credits and other rebates from customers, but this will not last too long unless they change their business model drastically or they cut down on their bloated corporate structure. If they don't do that, then a bunch of shareholders will be left holding the bag and a few SCTY executives will be laughing their ass off all the way to the bank.
The road that SCTY is on right now is in no way sustainable and they will fail miserably if their SG&A costs don't fall and I don't think they will. Excerpt from 10k:
We expect sales and marketing costs to increase significantly in absolute dollars in future periods as we continue to grow our sales headcount and expand our marketing efforts to continue to grow our business.
We anticipate that we will incur additional administrative headcount costs to support the growth in our business, our financing fund arrangements and the additional costs of being a public filer.
We anticipate that we will incur additional administrative headcount costs to support the growth in our business, our financing fund arrangements and the additional costs of being a public filer.
Good luck to all SCTY investors, you will need it.
BTW, I am long SCTY but only have a few thousand dollars in it, so not much exposure.
dhrivnak
Active Member
Wow just looked at my solar stocks and I am taking a beating. Canadian solar down 31%, SolarCity down 27% and SunPower down 4%. Fortunately my Tesla stock has made up for it but not by much. I just hope the slump does not last much longer.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Just be glad you are looking at solar stocks and not solar options. My solar stocks are hurting but my solar options are on life support.
Last year I did a pre-paid lease with SCTY for $1.09/W. No escalator clause, the power is mine to use for 20 years. They even offered me the MA SRECs at twice that price, if I wanted them.
They don't want to SELL the systems, they want to LEASE them. Thus they do quote higher prices on a sale, so yes, if you are buying you can do better than SCTY.
But watt for watt, the SCTY lease was the least expensive (by far) of the 4 quotes I received (2 were PPA lease, 2 were outright buy). They were also the most professional and nicest to deal with, AND they designed a larger wattage system than the other guys with a very slick roof placement algorithm. I'm very pleased with the results one year on, even if I don't own it.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Sound like a broken record but consider solar power, very happy with my options
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