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Alternative Energy Investor Discussions
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
And who do you think was the idiot who realized his losses on TSL LEAP's and moved the money to JASO about 1 week ago?
Oh well, I still think JASO will outperform them, but my timing sucks So at $1.15/W assuming $0.115/kWh you are looking at ten thousand hours to break even. About 3 years? That's pretty darn good. Where do I sign up?
Not exactly. It is $1.15/Watt Peak installed. My system is 7.7kW, so about $9,000 out of pocket.
Total system cost @$2.50/W or $21,000.
TDSP rebate over $8,000
30% tax credit (must have tax liability to take advantage of this since it is non-refundable just like when you buy a Tesla Model S) out of $13k (you get tax credit based on cost $21k minus rebate $8k = $13k eligible for credit). $4k tax credit
Out of pocket cost = $9k.
I am on pace to generate well over 12,000kWh/year and the rates here are about $0.11 - $0.16/kWh (avg. 0.12 - 0.13). That will save me $1,500 per year, so about 6 year payback period. I was paying $0.16/kWh until I switched to Green Mountain Energy who offers net metering here in Texas and they get 100% of electricity from renewables (mostly wind).
My system should generate about 360,000kWh of electricity over 30 years, so that is $0.025/kWh production cost for me. Even without rebates and tax credits, my production cost would be $0.06/kWh without any subsidies. Even if I have to replace inverter once and roof once, it will only cost about $1k each, so that raises my production cost to $0.03/kWh over 30 years.
Now I did get a smoking deal on a SunPower system that used scratch and dent panels (still get full 25-year product and linear output warranty; I inspected them and you wouldn't have noticed they are scratch and dent unless you knew to look for it) at $2.50/W. The good news is that even if you pay $4.40/W you are still saving a ton of money on electricity with a SunPower system.
But even better knews is that you can buy a solar system from a reputable local installer that will install it for under $3/W in some areas (based on Theshadow's information as a solar installer). You will still get high quality Chinese panels that will produce probably 80%-90% of what the SunPower system would, with a slightly was warranty term. I went with a SPWR system, because of the great deal. But even at $4.40/W I would have gone SPWR, because higher price means higher tax credit, so out of pocket cost does not grow proportionally to increase in price per watt installed. Also, you have to factor in LCOE and not cost per watt installed. I like SPWR panels, because I bought instead of leasing, and I want my system to run 40 years, and have an iron clad warranty that will last 25 years. If you get Yingli panels, then they might go out of business in the next couple of years if they don't get their financials in order.
You save some up front costs with Chinese panels, and if the system runs without hiccups for 30 years then Chinese is the way to go if you can get it much cheaper. I would rather pay a little extra for quality and peace of mind, but everyone is different.
One thing I know for sure is that if you can take advantage of full 30% tax credit then buying is a significantly better option than leasing. If you don't have any cash and can't get a loan (a lot of credit unions now offer very low interest solar loans, I paid 3% on mine) then leasing is a good option as long as you get a good rate that will save you a lot of money. SCTY claims that their avg. rate is $0.141/kWh while my rate is $0.025. Some people here claimed that SCTY was offering $0.08/kWh for leases or even $0.03/kWh if you prepay, but I doubt those deals still exist (doesn't hurt to try to find out). Last year SCTY and SPWR were offering leases at below cost in order to grab market share and utilize idle capacity. With the solar industry booming now, you will not find such great deals on leases anymore.
Now is the time to get a solar system before the 30% tax credit expires in 2.5 years, and states start scaling back rebates, and possible new tariffs on solar panels from Taiwan/China. Solar will get a lot cheaper over time, but when subsidies go away, you will be paying a lot more out of pocket than my $1.15/W.
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BTW, if you are going with Chinese panels I would recommend using JA Solar panels. JA makes everything in house, because they are paranoid about quality and want to be known for panels that perform over the life of the system. They are the Chinese technological leader. I invest in SPWR and JASO, in part because of their focus on quality and efficiency, which means one less risk to worry about. The solar industry is brand new and some companies like JASO, TSL, and basically all Chinese have been around for only a decade. There is no telling if the panels will hold up 25 years. It may turn out that JASO's panels fail more than others, but odds are very unlikely for this to happen with their attention to detail.
TSL is investing a lot to improve product quality and they will have great panels in the future too. Their older panels are hit or miss, because I have read on-line about defective batches.
YGE is too risky, because it might go bankrupt; I don't think it will, but the risk is real.
CSIQ, TSL, SOL, JKS are all very good options. But for peace of mind, and virtually exactly the same price, I would recommend JASO panels for your own roofs.
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One last thing:
Going with more efficient SPWR panels allows you to fit a much bigger system on your roof if it is constrained (and most are). I have a rather big house, but could only fit 2/3 on southern facing roof and 1/3 on western facing. If I went with Chinese solar panels I would have to do 50/50 and that would be a lot less generation out of the same size system due to orientation.
I really recommend looking at solar eneregy in terms of LCOE and not cost per Watt peak!
This is all based on my extensive research and not based on actual experience, so please take the panel recommendations with a grain of salt. Although SunPower has been in business for 30 years and they are known for quality, low degradation, and longevity.
InTheShadows
Active Member
This is not always the case, because of the shape and size of the roof. The SPWR panels are wider than standard panels and this sometimes impacts how many you can fit. It is most likely true when dealing with smaller hip to hip roofs. (The face of the roof looks like a trapezoid and not a rectangle.)
Of course you are correct. But in general, more efficient panels mean less roof space required. There might be some rare instances where this is not the case due to shape or size, but those would be exceptions.
If you lay down 5kW of SPWR panels next to 5kW of average Chinese panels, then the Chinese panels will take up an area that is 30% bigger vs. SPWR.
But even in extreme cases, I highly doubt that you will ever find a roof where an average Chinese panel would fit a larger system than a high efficiency panel from SPWR. Unless you look hard for a roof that would fit only 1 SPWR panel, but 2 Chinese panels.
It is pretty much given that a 30% more efficient panel will allow you to fit a larger size system on your roof.
Sleepy, or anyone else - could you please stretch a tape measure over some SPWR panels? I was unsuccessful going through normal channels to find their dimensions, and am looking to make use of some rooftop real estate that may be opening up.....
Looks like their E-series are same size. They have all info on their website:
http://us.sunpower.com/homes/products-services/solar-panels/e-series/
41.2" x 61.4" for SunPower with a total area of 2,530 square inches
by comparison a typical 60 cell Chinese module http://jinkosolar.com/product_detail_36.html
39" x 65" for Jinko's 60 cell module (I believe that all Chinese have same dimensions for 60-cell) for a total area of 2,537 square inches.
You can see that the Chinese modules are slighly narrower, but taller than SunPower. Sunpower's total module area size is smaller, but only by a hair. So essentially the same size.
On SunPower's website, they claim that x-series panels will generate over 75% more electricity over the 25-year life of the system compared to standard panels. Their assumptions are a little agressive, because they use 0.25% degradation for themselves vs. 1.0% for the panels they used to compare. In reality SunPower has averaged 0.13% degradation, but Chinese solar panels guarantee no more than 0.5% degradation. So, overall I would say that a SunPower system might do 50% more electricity per square inch and not 75% as they claim.
They also claim that a SunPower panel will generate 8-10% more electricity per rated watt, and I can believe it because my panels get excellent low light generation and perform well in the rain. This is a big reason why using "cost per watt installed" doesn't make much sense. With regular solar panels you get about 2%-4% initial degradation straight out of the box due to LID (light induced degradation); SPWR claims 0% initial degradation.
Overall, SPWR panels really do produce more electricity and do perform a lot better. But I would caution against some of their claims that might be a little too aggressive. They did a comparison study against some panels that they owned after buying out some manufacturers in South Africa. I would imagine that those panels were of inferior quality to the quality tier 1 Chinese panels you can buy. I am not a big fan of "stretching" the truth like this with fuzzy math or using weaker comps, but I guess that all companies do it, and even Elon Musk isn't much different in this regard.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I just came across a very intriguing article in the WaPo about solar roadways. It's about Scott and Julie Brusaw, an electrical engineer and his psychotherapist wife, who have been developing solar cells expressly designed for paving the roads. They estimate that covering all the roads, highways, and parking lots in the U.S. would cover the energy needs of the whole country 3 times over. According to the article, that means 3 times more than what could be accomplished by merely covering all the roofs of every home in America.
As a bonus, the roads would also be able to light up in the dark and de-ice their own surface.
Forget roofs, are solar roads the next big thing?
At 2010 prices, the whole thing can be built for the low, low price of $56 trillion. Be that as it may, they've started an Indiegogo campaign, already raising $500k out of a $1mil target.
I'd love to invest in the company that starts doing this. Here's to driving Tesla on a solar road.
As a bonus, the roads would also be able to light up in the dark and de-ice their own surface.
Forget roofs, are solar roads the next big thing?
At 2010 prices, the whole thing can be built for the low, low price of $56 trillion. Be that as it may, they've started an Indiegogo campaign, already raising $500k out of a $1mil target.
I'd love to invest in the company that starts doing this. Here's to driving Tesla on a solar road.
Techmaven and I looked into this a few months ago when it was written up on another green energy site, I forget which.
To me this is a great idea in theory that in practice would be rather impractical. Also, rather unnecessary given the more than adequate rooftop surface area that is still vastly underutilized in most US areas, ready for solar panels. Also, roads get decimated where I am regularly, and shattered glass and circuitboards littered all over the street would be a hazard that I'm not sure citizens would tolerate vs. the old familiar gravel and potholes.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Not saying you're wrong, since I don't have any more information than what they said in the article, but FWIW they address this, saying the surface material is stronger and more durable than asphalt, and also easier to replace.
Yeah, maybe it sounds too good to be true, and a closer look may reveal a thousand little things that are wrong with it. But at least it's a bold vision, and they are seriously trying to do it, so they have my unreserved admiration (and a few of my $ for their campaign.) I think the world has too many "sensible" people and too few Don Quixotes. Such wide-eyed visionaries are absolutely necessary to help us claw our way out of the many insurmountable messes we've been digging ourselves into. Even if they fail, they are inspiring.
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Oh I think it would be cool, and I'm all for big dreaming. Just thought this idea was a little worse off than it might be if they considered the practical realities of American roadways and/or thought about other places solar panels might go if they truly care about the environment. So much time and energy spent on this, which I feel is sadly doomed to failure...I just like the Elon Musk style better -- make something better than existing solutions by attacking known pain points, not creating more.
Edit: Robert, feel free to move this and above post if desired.
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There's an extensive discussion of solar roadways over here: Solar Roadways - Working prototype and pictures!
Let's consolidate this discussion over there, please.
Let's consolidate this discussion over there, please.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I don't think it's doomed to failure.
To be sure, I also don't see this covering all roads (or even a single road) any time soon. But they don't have to do that to succeed; they can start small. For instance, for the right price, I'd buy a driveway made of that stuff. I'm not a fan of shovelling all that snow we get up here all the freaking time. I could see sidewalks and parking lots built that way, too, both of which they talk about in the video I linked to. Of course the idea is crazy, and we all have this reflex of enumerating all the reasons why it cannot possibly work. But that's exactly why I root for people like them; it is unbelievably hard to keep working on stuff like this, when it's clear for everybody that it's just not gonna work. To borrow a famous phrase from a guy I trust, you could say it's like eating a glass sandwich.
That same guy also said that if something is truly important you should try it even if there is a high probability of failure. So, I disagree that their energy is better spent elsewhere. In fact, I think they're doing exactly what they should be doing: working on something completely outrageous that might actually just work. Fortunately, it seems quite a few people think their ideas have merit (including the Department of Transportation.)
We should celebrate them. Here's to the crazy ones.
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Edit: Moderator, sorry I didn't see your post. Please feel free to move mine as appropriate. Also, thanks for the link, I wasn't aware of that thread.
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I guess this is why the US Solars shot up and the Chinese mostly tanked? JASO seemed to hold its own though.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/04/us_slaps_import_tariffs_on_chinese_solar_panels_escalates_solar_trade_war.html
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/04/us_slaps_import_tariffs_on_chinese_solar_panels_escalates_solar_trade_war.html
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