I think this will take decades to happen on a large scale and by that time storage will be cost competitive with the grid. If not, somebody will come up with a solar+storage solution to only tap the grid when required resulting in only using on site power on site and when that runs out, tap the grid. This will be a lose lose situation for the grid because they will lose the excess power provided by consumers and have heavily reduced consumer usage of grid power.
This is still not a good solution to the consumer, because as Robert.Boston said, the utilities will start charging a high monthly fixed fee for transmission and distribution services. So even if you only tap the grid for a couple of emergency kWh's per month, then you may still be faced with $30 - $50 fixed monthly fees from the utility.
I think that going off the grid is the only solution. I for one can't wait to go off the grid, because the utilities can always find ways to make you pay more. If you are relying on the grid for backup (even if you don't use it hardly at all) then the grid is of great value and benefit to you, so a high $30+ fixed fee is reasonable and you are going to end up paying it.
Living off the grid is the best solution. Not many people would want to go that route today, but I have a feeling that there will be a lot of interested people in the future if battery storage ever becomes cheap.
You will have to put in a bigger than necessary solar system to live off the grid, so in the best case you can simply sell excess electricity to the grid with a one-way connection where you can't buy back. This way the utilities can't charge you anything for backup since you don't need it; while they will gladly buy your excess generation.
Once batteries are installed at homes for under $200/kWh, living off the grid becomes a reality for many. We have a long way to go, but Elon said that the cost should fall to $100 within 8 years (said 10 years, 2 years ago). So I would imagine that they can package and install these things for $200 eventually.
- - - Updated - - -
SolarCity currently does not serve Illinois. Commonwealth Edison (ComEd), which provides electricity to Chicago and the rest of Northern Illinois, will raise rates by an average of 21% on June 1st.
Here’s a link to a related Chicago Tribune article and video: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-comed-price-increases-20140507,0,7376954.story
I provided a heads-up to the contact box in the SolarCity website. Here is the response I received:
“Thank you so much for the information. I will be sure to forward your email over to our expansion team to review and look into the great opportunity this presents.”
I don't know what the solar situation is in Illinois, but SCTY doesn't go where electricity rates are high. SCTY enters markets where there is net metering and HIGH rebates.
I live in Texas and utility rates are really cheap here. But SCTY still does business in my TDSP area, because the transmission services provider offers a generous rebate and SCTY gets to pocket that rebate. There are a few retail providers that offer net metering as well.
Both boxes are checked, so SCTY does business here. If you go across the street from where I live, then SCTY will not install a system for you because their TDSP does not offer any rebates.
SCTY goes only where it can make the most money for itself, and that is where the rebates are highest. Net metering is necessary, because customers will not sign up without net metering.
If SCTY is doing business in your area, then there is a 99%+ chance that you are better off buying a system outright from a local installer. Because if you SCTY does business in your area, then there is more than likely some kind of generous rebate, SREC, etc. that SCTY is pocketing at your loss.
