Another Autosteer Question

[Dilly]

I Gave TACC and autopilot a go driving the couple of miles to my local town. Not surprisingly it was completely unsuitable.
TACC on it’s own had some erroneous braking issues with parked cars as others have reported.
In my previous car I just used speed limiter to keep me at 30mph or less.
I wish the M3 had an active speed limit feature. A chime when it’s too late is not much help.
I’m surprised that Elon hasn’t added it.

 

[bhav]

I’d rather the car let me choose to use a feature than not.

The i3 I’m driving has a “traffic jam assist” feature which only works on motorways, up to 35mph, and basically requires you to put an uncomfortable amount of pressure on the steering wheel to stop it nagging or switching off entirely. Useless.

But using it above 35mph is by definition *not* a feature.

I used the equivalent on my A3 and it worked really well - yes it needed some steering resistance every so often but took the stress/exhaustion out of driving in traffic. It "worked" above 40mph but after that it's just a lane keep assist, you can't expect it to deal with bends because the front radar and the lane departure monitors don't talk to each other in a "smart" way (i.e. at all)

I think what you're describing is not the system being "useless" - it's a limitation. The tech just isn't up to scratch so they're right not to allow it in more conditions and then rely on the driver not to use it... Just look at all the idiots using TACC and autosteer on city streets or through roundabouts...

 

[aquilum]

I Gave TACC and autopilot a go driving the couple of miles to my local town. Not surprisingly it was completely unsuitable.
TACC on it’s own had some erroneous braking issues with parked cars as others have reported.
In my previous car I just used speed limiter to keep me at 30mph or less.
I wish the M3 had an active speed limit feature. A chime when it’s too late is not much help.
I’m surprised that Elon hasn’t added it.

I've basically come to the conclusion that TACC/Autopilot is actually a severe downgrade from the non-radar cruise control in my MX-5:

1. It frequently decelerated while I was overtaking slow moving traffic for no obvious reason - surprising drivers behind me
2. It completely bailed on a bend having acclerated up to the speed limit. Immediate corrective action was required to avoid an unanticipated carriage exit.
3. The FSD visualisations frequently miss parked cars, trailers.
4. New speed limit signs are not communicated in to the car.
5. Curiously, where the speed data is correct, the car doesn't decelerate in advance of the new limit.

The speed limiter is a pretty sore omission, though - I used it extensively on my MX-5, and it seems bizarre that a car that costs ~3x as much doesn't have this feature.

 

[pdk42]

it’s not designed to be used whilst driving through narrow streets! Autopilot is designed for use on dual carriageways and motorways. From the manual:

Autosteer is intended for use only on highways and limited-access roads with a fully attentive driver.

I think the design aims of AP are to cope with all roads. I’ve certainly seen Tesla test videos that show it operating on non highways. However, it is absolutely clear that the required software/learning/algorithms aren’t there yet for safe usage on anything but highways (and even there I don’t trust it). I actually still doubt whether the current tech will ever get there.

I applaud Tesla’s efforts, but I think we’re at least 5-10 years away, and a couple of generations of hardware, before it gets even close to be reliable enough for mostly hands-free driving. In the meantime, the basics need beefing up - basic TACC without phantom braking, cruise control that doesn’t jump to the current speed limit when engaged, speed limit sign reading, ... I’ll keep doing my own steering!

 

[DJP31]

I think the design aims of AP are to cope with all roads

Definitely the aim, coming "soon" if you believe the FSD wording - which clearly neither you don't and neither do I .

I applaud Tesla’s efforts, but I think we’re at least 5-10 years away, and a couple of generations of hardware, before it gets even close to be reliable enough for mostly hands-free driving. In the meantime, the basics need beefing up - basic TACC without phantom braking, cruise control that doesn’t jump to the current speed limit when engaged, speed limit sign reading, ... I’ll keep doing my own steering!

I agree, and I'm struggling to convince myself I should go for FSD when I change my current car, which has EAP. Most of my driving is town, and Nav on AP isn't up to much when I am on the motorway. I never use Autopark but do use Summon a fair bit at work, but could live without it. OTOH I'm a sucker for the early adopter premium .

I've noticed that the GFV's have dropped again on new cars, increasing the monthly payments - as did the removal of the grant. It might get to the point where i'm priced into being sensible

 

[Durzel]

Wonder why the GFVs have dropped? Due to virus?

 

[Yev000]

I think we’re at least 5-10 years away

I'll reserve further judgement untill the re-write is released this year.

 

[DJP31]

Wonder why the GFVs have dropped? Due to virus?

Could well be. Top end goods are the biggest casualties in a recession and Blackhorse may be factoring in a prolonged downturn in demand. I don't know to what extend Tesla underwrite the GFV's but it's possible that they are trying to limit demand whilst the production line is closed, or even pending a model interior refresh .

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that it's a mistake and they'll be adjusted back shortly.

 

[bhav]

Wonder why the GFVs have dropped? Due to virus?

Isn't it obvious? Buying cars is not going to be a priority or even a possibility for many people, so demand will be lower and hence the "guaranteed" future value will be lower and they will of course want to recoup more of that total value through your finance payments.

In fact, those who were due to trade in their vehicles in March saw an immediate drop in value as soon as things escalated.

It's really for this reason I've always steered away from PCP - you're gambling on the future value of a depreciating asset over which you're just at the mercy of the market/economy.

 

[DJP31]

It's really for this reason I've always steered away from PCP - you're gambling on the future value of a depreciating asset over which you're just at the mercy of the market/economy.

I'd say that's one of the benefits of PCP. If the value falls then the finance company takes the hit, not me. If the depreciation is less than expected I benefit by having some equity.

 

[bhav]

I'd say that's one of the benefits of PCP. If the value falls then the finance company takes the hit, not me. If the depreciation is less than expected I benefit by having some equity.

Yeah, I guess I prefer the lease option for similar reasons: I know exactly what I'm paying upfront, have no unknown risk (lease co takes all the risk), and I get the emotional freedom of just being able to walk away at the end instead of having to make yet another gamble every 3-4 years.

Also, the GFV is only if you stay with the same company/dealership/finance co right? So you're locked in? No one else is going to give you that GFV so the other reason I dislike PCP is it's a sales tactic to hook you in forever

 

[DJP31]

Yeah, I guess I prefer the lease option for similar reasons: I know exactly what I'm paying upfront, have no unknown risk (lease co takes all the risk), and I get the emotional freedom of just being able to walk away at the end instead of having to make yet another gamble every 3-4 years.

But that's exactly the same with a PCP. I can just hand it back and walk away. No gamble.

Also, the GFV is only if you stay with the same company/dealership/finance co right? So you're locked in? No one else is going to give you that GFV so the other reason I dislike PCP is it's a sales tactic to hook you in forever

No, if the car is worth more than the GFV in p/x then that's what anyone would give you for it, not just the same manufacturer. It's true e.g. an Audi dealer might give you more for an Audi than BMW would, but that's more about the Audi dealer knowing his customer base and probability of being able to move the car on. If the car isn't worth the GFV nobody will give you more for it.

I've never leased before as I've never properly understood what my options are mid term if I decide/need to bail out. With a PCP (or any finance for that matter) it's a simple case of what's the car worth compared to the settlement figure on the finance.

How does it work with a lease where, e.g. 30 months into a 36 month lease I decide I want to get out of it. Is it a straight 6 x the monthly lease?

 

[DrJFoster]

PCP sounds attractive superficially in the sense that if the car is worse than a figure in the future you walk away, if its higher than that figure, the difference is a bonus for you as you only owe the end figure not what the car is worth. No lose gamble.

Except PCP is rarely cheaper than or even the same as a lease, so you pay more hoping that the car is worth more than the GFV at the end and the extra covers the extra you've paid

Finance is in reality really simple, the cost over the term is the depreciation + cost of money (+ ved, servicing etc whatever is included in the deal) - everything else is a function of who's taking the risk on depreciation and how much profit the finance people want to make. The higher the GFV the riskier a PCP is and the less if any upside there could be for the buyer, but the lower the monthly payments.

 

[DJP31]

Except PCP is rarely cheaper than or even the same as a lease, so you pay more hoping that the car is worth more than the GFV at the end and the extra covers the extra you've paid

That's not been true in the case of Tesla in earlier years. They either had ridiculously high GFV's or the finance was at 1.5% so TCO was favourable, but neither is the case now I agree.

The higher the GFV the riskier a PCP is and the less if any upside there could be for the buyer, but the lower the monthly payments.

Very true if you are banking on the next deposit coming from the "profit" which, with a high GFV is unlikely. I always make sure I have the next deposit lined up and am never dependent on there being any profit.

I would still like to have a better understanding of the get out options on a lease, it's seemed a bit smoke and mirrrors on the occasions I looked before.

 

[pdk42]

I've financed my last few cars on a straight loan. I've been getting very low interest rates and aim to pay it off within 3-4 years. I normally keep the car 6 years, so I get a few years without finance payments which is a bonus. Then the car equity covers the deposit on the next one. I've looked at PCP, but the TCO never really stacks up unless I change very frequently, but then the overall cost is much higher since I'm financing the steepest part of the depreciation curve.

 

[bhav]

How does it work with a lease where, e.g. 30 months into a 36 month lease I decide I want to get out of it. Is it a straight 6 x the monthly lease?

That's the trade off to be honest - you don't have many or any options that wouldn't punish you.

That's the point though, you go into it knowing that you're paying less but you're committed for the term - you're just renting a car but you've signed up to do so. You're not taking any price risk but you are taking affordability risk - i.e. if you can't afford to keep paying and *need* to exit then it's going to hurt and you might be stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If you're *not* paying less for a lease vs. PCP something weird is going on in my view. The PCP route has many options (give back the car, roll equity into new car, etc etc) - you're essentially paying for all those options one way or another?

On a lease if you want to exit, I think there are usually various formulas used to calculate what the early termination charge should be. I can't recall what it was on my personal lease for my Audi A3, but for my new salary sacrifice scheme for M3 with zenith it's an enormously complicated formula!

If you're in your last 4 months it basically makes you pay up the remainder.

If you're not, it calculates what you've got left to pay but also factors in where you are on your mileage vs. what you'd set as your annual mileage at the start - the T&C's have what is essentially a GCSE maths problem!

Anyway, as I say, it's a totally different model - if you care about having an option to "get out" early then don't go for a lease. If you're satisfied with keeping a car for 2 to 4 years, don't care about ownership and all the permutations of keep/sell/part ex/roll into new car etc etc, and just want something that is straightforward with (normally) lower payments... Get a lease

PS: we have totally diverged from the autosteer topic!