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Well, let's see, it took 4 years from when Tesla released the first FSD video to the time when first youtubers got their hands on a similarly capable version (not as capable, but close). Draw your own conclusions.
Well, I guess it depends what you mean by Musk Xmas. 2016 Xmas was a Musk Xmas - under the tree you got an empty promise that FSD would start rolling out by end of 2016, so within a week! This year, you get the same thing - some hype and dreams. You can dream of your car driving itself while making you money, and how it's suddenly worth over $200,000!