I'm worried about my 910 calls being assigned as well. If we're at the top of a trading range (1 reasonable hypothesis), then I'll be writing aggressive puts and likely getting those shares back quickly, along with high put premium and maybe some sell to buy strike price improvement. Or even just avoid being assigned as the shares trade flat to down from here.
Another reasonable hypothesis is that the shares trade down tomorrow quite a bit. Regressing back towards recent trading. I chose the 910 call specifically because it was the other side of the very large number of calls at 900. So in this scenario, I'm hoping for an 895ish close
. In this case, the option premium will head quickly back to where I like to see it, and I might even get to buy the options early for a profit (right now - I'm guessing that I'll be holding these until very close to expiration).
The third reasonable hypothesis, and the one I'm really worried about, is that this week is the start of a new TSLA breakout to ATH. We go through 910 this week, and 1000 next week, and 1200 the week after, ... I look up in a month and the new trading range is 1500-1800. I really hope that this happens, but it waits a week for it to get going
Also worth looking at, is the max pain for next week. That's a weekly, monthly, quarterly, and LEAP expiration. When I looked on Friday, max pain was 615 or 675 (I forget which). Even better, there's been stunning amounts of contracts purchased over the last couple of years (there's a huge Put wall at $50
).
Anyway, there's also close to $2B on the line, and the markets are incented to get the share price back down next week at least. And with as far as they'd like it to move, this week is a good time to get started (or so I tell myself).
If we knew what would happen, then it'd be easy to choose our trade and hit it out of the park every time.