Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ReddyLeaf]

Ok wheelers, the earnings report will be released after the close on Monday April 26th.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Plans for next week? Shouldn’t IV increase throughout the week? Hmmm, I will probably wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to sell, if at all, and then target high again, maybe 4/16 850s. Thoughts? Definitely not planning to sell anything on Monday the 26th.

 

[MaxPain]

Ok wheelers, the earnings report will be released after the close on Monday April 26th.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Plans for next week? Shouldn’t IV increase throughout the week? Hmmm, I will probably wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to sell, if at all, and then target high again, maybe 4/16 850s. Thoughts? Definitely not planning to sell anything on Monday the 26th.

My plan is to sell 3/4ths of my CCs on monday. Then the last 1/4 on Tuesday or Wednesday depending on the action. If another flat week I'll roll down like you described above. I'm targeting 825+ strikes for next week, but that might change depending on Monday's open.

 

[Yoona]

Ok wheelers, the earnings report will be released after the close on Monday April 26th.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Plans for next week? Shouldn’t IV increase throughout the week? Hmmm, I will probably wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to sell, if at all, and then target high again, maybe 4/16 850s. Thoughts? Definitely not planning to sell anything on Monday the 26th.

For next week, I sold IC 670/675/800/805, and I will sell 800 CC. Still learning how to gauge/time high IV for CC.

Today's IC 585/590/700/710 is a win. Sold on Wednesday after "forum consensus" that SP will close <700.

 

[juanmedina]

Normally, I would say no because I don’t really keep track. But looking back, I do have some data, though the times might not be exactly right since I’m just looking back at my text messages and not all have time stamps. Also, this was done in multiple IRA accounts, so not all are done at the same time or price.
STO -800c Mon 14:07 $1.20. BTC Tues 10:55 $0.47 (some at $0.30)
STO -750c Tues 10:55 $2.10/1.62/1.65 BTC Wed 10:20 $0.50/0.48
STO -720c Thur 11:59 $1.45/1.50/1.55. BTC Fri 09:35 $0.10
So, a total profit around $3.20/shr for the week, enough for me.

This is a newish experience for me, that is, rolling down during the week. Initially, I started just selling calls way OTM (like this week’s 800s) on Monday close to the open and then leaving them to close worthless. This week, however, I was expecting a massive SP jump from the Q1 P/D report and waited to see where the SP went before trading.

I’ve now had three successful weeks of rolling down and one unsuccessful week (FOMO bad timing and bought back at a loss). I’m still learning options intricacies and this rolling method seems to allow me to extract a little bit more premium, while not needing to guess exactly right on strikes. I’m sure that others could get more premium by initially selling closer to the Friday close SP (e.g. 700s this week), but I’m just not that lucky/good and I don’t want to risk losing my shares.

Finally, I put the profits gained into shares, buying a couple of shares each week, using buy orders in $10 lower SP increments. I now need less than 100 shares total to fill out round lots in all my accounts. I was hoping to be done trading by the earnings report, but it looks like I’ll be a little short of my share goal by then, so maybe June or July. There’s no hurry for me since I cannot access these IRA accounts for several years anyway. Definitely looking forward to getting a new MS Plaid+ when the SP is in the $1000-$1200 range.

Great job! $3.20 per contract for a week is really good IMO. I am also looking forward to getting a Model S Plaid not "+" and make the payments by selling premium. My goal for that happen is when I have 3M in investments and everything paid off which also coincide with me quitting my job.

 

[Criscmt]

Normally, I would say no because I don’t really keep track. But looking back, I do have some data, though the times might not be exactly right since I’m just looking back at my text messages and not all have time stamps. Also, this was done in multiple IRA accounts, so not all are done at the same time or price.
STO -800c Mon 14:07 $1.20. BTC Tues 10:55 $0.47 (some at $0.30)
STO -750c Tues 10:55 $2.10/1.62/1.65 BTC Wed 10:20 $0.50/0.48
STO -720c Thur 11:59 $1.45/1.50/1.55. BTC Fri 09:35 $0.10
So, a total profit around $3.20/shr for the week, enough for me.

This is a newish experience for me, that is, rolling down during the week. Initially, I started just selling calls way OTM (like this week’s 800s) on Monday close to the open and then leaving them to close worthless. This week, however, I was expecting a massive SP jump from the Q1 P/D report and waited to see where the SP went before trading.

I’ve now had three successful weeks of rolling down and one unsuccessful week (FOMO bad timing and bought back at a loss). I’m still learning options intricacies and this rolling method seems to allow me to extract a little bit more premium, while not needing to guess exactly right on strikes. I’m sure that others could get more premium by initially selling closer to the Friday close SP (e.g. 700s this week), but I’m just not that lucky/good and I don’t want to risk losing my shares.

Finally, I put the profits gained into shares, buying a couple of shares each week, using buy orders in $10 lower SP increments. I now need less than 100 shares total to fill out round lots in all my accounts. I was hoping to be done trading by the earnings report, but it looks like I’ll be a little short of my share goal by then, so maybe June or July. There’s no hurry for me since I cannot access these IRA accounts for several years anyway. Definitely looking forward to getting a new MS Plaid+ when the SP is in the $1000-$1200 range.

Thanks for sharing, the data is useful.

 

[Yoona]

The Wheel is conceptually easy to understand.
- Sell Cash Secured Puts, month after month, until assigned (buy shares).
- Then sell Covered Calls against your shares, month after month, until assigned (sell shares)
- Repeat.

My eyes are bleeding red from all the Wheel reading and I am FINALLY ready to start my first wheel.

If anyone is on the 'sell CSP' stage, what is the 'not advice' put strike that you are looking for next week to get max prem? Assume max 'put wall' is 700 and max 'call wall' is 800. I don't mind getting assigned.

Thanks in advance and hope everyone is having a great weekend!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

My eyes are bleeding red from all the Wheel reading and I am FINALLY ready to start my first wheel.

If anyone is on the 'sell CSP' stage, what is the 'not advice' put strike that you are looking for next week to get max prem? Assume max 'put wall' is 700 and max 'call wall' is 800. I don't mind getting assigned.

Thanks in advance and hope everyone is having a great weekend!

Not great advice, but on Friday, right at the opening low, I rolled last week’s 650p (BTC $2.00) to 660p (STO $13.20). I’m thinking about closing this position on Monday AM if the SP rockets, and then rolling to $665/$670. Any ideas on what else to do with the cash? I can only chase the SP with the added premium. This is really the most amount of cash (fully secured) that I am willing to tie up.

If you really want to be assigned, then $680-700p would have been better. I’m just beginning to investigate the put side of the wheel, but as @adiggs has said, you can easily sell puts closer to max pain than calls, as long as you’re willing to be assigned. I think that it would be better to sell puts on Thursday/Friday for the next week, especially near a local minimum SP. Whereas, Monday SP peaks would be better for selling calls. I’m still looking at this, so don’t trust me. If trying to sell next week, then I would wait until the MMD, maybe Tuesday/Wednesday. My gut feeling is that IV and the SP will start to rise on Thursday in anticipation of the Q1 financials. It might be as late as Friday or the following week, but be careful. In any case, try to wait for that morning’s dip, or the late week afternoon fade.

I’m still toying with the idea of redeploying the CSP cash into buying LEAPS. Tough decisions. I’ll probably stay with selling CSPs with the cash because otherwise I’m nearly 100% committed into TSLA, and LEAPs would make it 120%.

 

[adiggs]

Thursday April 1st was the first expiration week of the month and April 16th is the third, so wouldn’t it be a monthly?

I’m much more timid on my strikes, so 1% is usually difficult for me. Right now, if I had to trade, I’d be interested in 0.05 delta -c765 @ $1.07. At my age/risk tolerance, that’s enough average premium for my weekly expenses in this low cost area. For me, a good week, is $3/shr, while $6 would be exceptional. In any case, I’m still accumulating shares and have several years before I can remove money from the retirement accounts. Hoping to add 5shr/wk average with the premiums. Edit: Bought 17 shr last week, so I must be doing better than I realized. I really should keep better track of my trading and start that spreadsheet that Addigs talked about at the beginning of this thread.

Agreed about the price action. I’m waiting on direction as well. If we see the SP spike above $715 Monday AM, it would be a bullish breakout, and I would probably start at -c855, just on the other side of that call wall. If we don’t break $710, well, expect some more action down to $650 +/-.

For what its worth, my trade tracking spreadsheet has every trade going back a year since I started. There are about 150 trades in there now over 3 accounts.

I find myself thinking that its more work than I want to put into it these days, and yet I keep recording the trades. It is particularly important now so I know my cash flow and earnings. The living expenses come out of those in one of the accounts and knowing my recent monthly and quarterly history of the overall results - not just the individual trades - seems particularly important now. So I keep doing it even as the inspiration is waning somewhat

Maybe I'll get inspired one of these days and I'll post something about what I've come up with. I've been trying to cut it down to the minimum of fields for me to record while still getting the information I find that I use (or can calculate - calculated fields are "free" in my book).

 

[MrMoo]

Thursday April 1st was the first expiration week of the month and April 16th is the third, so wouldn’t it be a monthly?

I’m much more timid on my strikes, so 1% is usually difficult for me. Right now, if I had to trade, I’d be interested in 0.05 delta -c765 @ $1.07. At my age/risk tolerance, that’s enough average premium for my weekly expenses in this low cost area. For me, a good week, is $3/shr, while $6 would be exceptional. In any case, I’m still accumulating shares and have several years before I can remove money from the retirement accounts. Hoping to add 5shr/wk average with the premiums. Edit: Bought 17 shr last week, so I must be doing better than I realized. I really should keep better track of my trading and start that spreadsheet that Addigs talked about at the beginning of this thread.

Agreed about the price action. I’m waiting on direction as well. If we see the SP spike above $715 Monday AM, it would be a bullish breakout, and I would probably start at -c855, just on the other side of that call wall. If we don’t break $710, well, expect some more action down to $650 +/-.

I also wanted to see Mondays price action. Would like to get your opinion on historically if TSLA does not break out Monday or Tuesday, without significant news catalysts could we say sub 750 strike prices are safe then?

I honestly feel we are so far behind positively in terms of macro that big Macro days won't be able to get us to 700+ anyway.

 

[Discoducky]

FWIW, with regards to the release of FSD wide (aka "The button").

Software releases are usually done on Tuesday, Wednesday and sometimes Thursday.

It depends on how good the weekend drive was and how many "fixes" are deemed needed after Monday morning triage. If no major show stoppers are identified then it is a Tuesday release. If major items, then teams cherry pick fixes and another build is generated for a Monday night validation drive. Rinse and repeat for Tuesday and at the latest Wednesday.

With NN training being the show stopper, think of that cycle being two to three weeks long rather than traditional coding or algo changes. But also realize algo changes are also still happening.

Not sure if this helps anyone, but thought it might be interesting for timing purposes based on Elon tweets.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

STO -c805 @$0.69 during this morning’s SP rise to $700. If the SP doesn’t break $715, then I’ll roll down tomorrow. Not much of a MMD, so maybe we’ll see another leg up this afternoon. $710? Edit: oops, that was a bit premature. Definitely the MMD started at 10:25 today, right on-time, though it was earlier last week.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I also wanted to see Mondays price action. Would like to get your opinion on historically if TSLA does not break out Monday or Tuesday, without significant news catalysts could we say sub 750 strike prices are safe then?

I honestly feel we are so far behind positively in terms of macro that big Macro days won't be able to get us to 700+ anyway.

Agreed. If we don’t break $715 today, very likely the week will end below 700.

 

[bxr140]

If anyone is on the 'sell CSP' stage, what is the 'not advice' put strike that you are looking for next week to get max prem? Assume max 'put wall' is 700 and max 'call wall' is 800.

Always keep in mind that max extrinsic value is an ATM strike. Since the point of selling options is to sell volatility, and volatility only impacts extrinsic value, the ideal strike is always ATM.

From there you offset your actual strike based on a) however you do your price analysis and b) how agressive you want to be relative to your analysis (= you pick a strike below your analysis if you're conservative, above your analysis if you're aggressive...).

My latest short term price analysis is here and I just added an update a few posts later. For me, I'd be looking at something like low-mid 600's for a -P strike and high 700's on a -C strike.

I don't mind getting assigned.

More importantly, at how much of a loss are you willing to be assigned? Selling puts for the purpose of being assigned explicitly means one is willing to be assigned at a loss on the underlying, with the hope that the premium collected on the sale will offset the loss taken on the underlying (and thus the total trade is a net positive).

 

[bxr140]

I also wanted to see Mondays price action. Would like to get your opinion on historically if TSLA does not break out Monday or Tuesday, without significant news catalysts could we say sub 750 strike prices are safe then?

There's really no long term statistical relevance to Monday vs Wed (etc.), vs the rest of the week. The past year of trading has produced a bit of correlation on the concept, though there's plenty of data to suggest its a coincidental phenomenon.

If one can find deeper patterns by folding in additional indicators that's awesome, but if one is trading based solely on what happens during a day of the week, one really needs to understand the concept is just as likely a false positive as it is an actual indicator.

 

[Yoona]

My latest short term price analysis is here and I just added an update a few posts later. For me, I'd be looking at something like low-mid 600's for a -P strike and high 700's on a -C strike.

Thanks. I wasn't aware of that thread. Bookmarked for my daily watch/read, as well.

 

[Criscmt]

Thoughts on selling 04/30 900C for 2.75, which gives 2.75/3 = ~$85/share/week, rather than 04/16 800-850( which are relatively aggressive and also give much less premium/week, $80 for 04/16 800C, $30 for 04/16 850C?
One downside, rolling down won't be as easy, profitable due to lower theta impact.

 

[corduroy]

I sold some weekly 820 calls today. I was going to go 775s but wanted to play it safe. I plan on selling 4/23 puts if we have any dip this week.

 

[bxr140]

Thoughts on selling 04/30 900C...

a) Its generally a bad idea to sell anything for earnings week unless you're in earnings week.
b) Its generally a bad idea to sell anything in what is a likely rising volatility environment.
c) 900 is probably far enough away that it doesn't really matter.

 

[bxr140]

I plan on selling 4/23 puts if we have any dip this week.

I plan on buying calls if there's a dip this week, and/or if we have a strong break above ~705 or so.

 

[juanmedina]

I sold some weekly 820 calls today. I was going to go 775s but wanted to play it safe. I plan on selling 4/23 puts if we have any dip this week.

I sold 3x 775s 4/16 for $1.9. I am hopping for another green day this week to sell the rest.