Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[GoTslaGo]

You'all are missing the big picture. It has become clear that GM is only going to sell about 30,000 Bolts a year, not because of lack of demand, but because of supply restrictions and/or lack of enough profit. Whatever the reason, it is a CARB compliance vehicle. See the various Canada, Europe and non-CARB state bitching on the Facebook and other Bolt forums for confirmation of this. My brother in law who is a GM dealer general manager in Canada got ONE Bolt to sell for the whole model year. One.

This means, that once again, Tesla will have the $35K, long range EV market ALL TO ITSELF. Meaning the car just needs to be minimally competent. If Tesla's worldwide distribution network (which is still growing) can sell 100,000 $100K cars a year, it sure as hell can sell 500,000 $35K cars a year. Tesla will be supply constrained for a while yet. Demand is not going to be an issue.

For even yet another data point on that issue, look at the Model X. It debuted with electron guzzling efficiency, not great range, non folding second row seats, bad falcon wing door software, body panel alignment issues, lots of warranty repairs, and a long period of time with crappy Autopilot software. And yet they are selling lots of them. Why? Because they have the market ALL TO THEMSELVES. No competition is a very powerful place to be in.

And given what I'm reading on this thread, where even Tesla fanatics are debating how much demand there will be, gosh, how do you think the general market is going to react when they realize Tesla is selling boatloads of Model 3s? Shock and awe all over again.

What this means for the stock price is anyone's guess (a lot more factors play into that), but long term, the stock price is going to be well supported by fundamentals.

All in good fun! No blood shed!

 

[winfield100]

The Volt is not the comp here.

that was kinda my poorly stated point. The Volt, poor as it is, is way better than an older high end Mercedes.
I didnt notice the interior work, seats, 'corinthian naugaleatherwhatever", fine workmanship while literally fighting for my life, merely driving a "luxury car" worrying if we were going to die in a ball of flames in the ensuing 150 miles, that i regarded as a "several ton deathtrap" after having 57 years driving experience. The only way you could ever get me inside a Mercedes is if it was a hearse, and i was the main attraction
clear communication is one of my much weaker points, so apologies

 

[Alketi]

Those cars are all terrible once you've driven electric. The sluggish, erratic throttle response, the tendency to creep forward when you have your foot off the pedal, the shaking... I honestly don't think that any ICE car will be competitive, due to the awful driving quality. It's OK if people think the Model 3 interior is not quite as nice as the BMW interior, because the moment they turn on the rattletrap engine in the BMW, they're going to feel the difference and choose the Model 3. (And at the same time, Model 3 will be cheaper to operate.)

I think there is absolutely no question about this. This is something which is impossible to get wrong; it's a consequence of making an electric car.

I 100% agree with neroden here. I've been driving a manual A4 for the last 6 years, one of the Model 3s direct competitors. I was recently given a brand new automatic A6 as a loaner -- a nice step-up, one would think.

Coming from a manual transmission, this is what happens (in order) when you stomp the gas pedal on a semi high-end automatic ICE:
1. Nothing
2. Engine roars. RPMs soar. Car wheels don't yet do anything.
3. Transmission noticeably downshifts (if already moving)
4. You feel acceleration.

It's a disgusting experience to a "car guy" (of which I'm barely in that category) and why most drive manual transmissions.

In contrast, I drove my friend's Model S 60. My main takeaways didn't involve the acceleration (which was only 5.2s and not chest-thumping). What I noticed immediately:

1. Instant throttle response (far better than my manual A4, and utterly incomparable to an automatic ICE)
2. The absolute smoothness of no gear shifts.
3. Insanely flat in the corners (far superior to even my smaller A4)

And the best part is that all of this EV superiority just falls out of the design. It's why Porsche just changed their entire roadmap.

And all of this speaks purely to driving experience, completely absent any political motivations or beliefs. If the Model 3 doesn't fail spectacularly in some unforeseen way, I expect that it'll be sold out in-perpetuity. But that'll be the subject of another post.

 

[Ugliest1]

@Alketi agree. I'm not a 'car guy' but hated automatics and thoroughly enjoyed driving manual, looking back because a) liked anticipating whatever was happening and shifting in advance (but not too much in advance) to be ready with torque when needed; b) non-brake pad braking.

With a Model S and I'm confident the Model 3, all the physical crap goes away, you can still concentrate on whatever is happening on the road, and you just have instant quiet response and sublime one-pedal driving.

I realize I'm likely preaching to the converted but after 3.5 years driving a Model S I still am excited by... driving. Wasn't that way before.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Only if the competition is defined as other lackluster EVs. I believe @DaveT is talking about competing head to head against the best ICE cars at the same price point in the same segment. And at $35-50k, that’s going to be the BMW 3/4, Audi A4, and so forth. Otherwise, people will be paying an EV penalty which limits adoption. If the Model 3 is competitive, which doesn’t mean best at everything, but truly is in the mix with some give and take, then the Model 3 has a chance to be the segment leader in terms of volume. The Volt is not the comp here.

I can't imagine M3 not killing it. You put that flat low battery frame and big motor, you have one hellof a car.
The only real problem with MS is steering feel - it sucks. But so does any modern car from my (snobby) point of view, except for Porsche, Porsche is sort of ok.

 

[MitchJi]

I'm giving you that this is going to matter to a handful of people, but it's just not enough people to have any significance to Tesla and sales of the Model 3. Or is there some evidence I'm not aware of that a large portion of people value this criteria over all the rest; aesthetic appeal, miles per energy type and unit, usability, comfort, EV benefits, does it fit in my garage etc...

I partially agree that the issues you mentioned are not show stoppers. But part of the reason for the MS-MX popularity is because they are better than they need to be. They are in fact compelling.

When I initially heard that Elon said that Tesla would produce compelling EV's
I thought that was impossible. When he said that their TE products would be compelling again I thought that was impossible. I was wrong (off the hook demand), based on cost performance.

When he said he their Solar Roof was compelling I felt skeptical, but based on past experiences I assumed he was correct. I believe that was correct. We have more neighbors who want the Solar Roof than the M3.

The following is definitely an advice !
The only reason that there's so much doubt on this forum that the M3 will definitely be compelling is that Elon has been trying to prevent Osborning of the MS-MX, by anti-selling the M3.

It will be compelling, @DaveT will love it and the SP will increase substantially when the market figures that out, which might not happen at the reveal. Tesla might not make all of the options prices public at that time.

 

[tlo]

I consider it already a done deal that Model 3 will be the best car not named Model S/X.

What matters is the software that is years ahead of the competition, almost entirely transferrable from Model S/X. Also transferrable is the supercharging network, service experience, store experience.

I also love the removal of the instrument cluster altogether. Why have an entire cluster obstructing your view of the road just to display speed, battery level, RPM (irrelevant), temperature (irrelevant), fault light placeholders (irrelevant).

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I consider it already a done deal that Model 3 will be the best car not named Model S/X.

What matters is the software that is years ahead of the competition, almost entirely transferrable from Model S/X. Also transferrable is the supercharging network, service experience, store experience.

I also love the removal of the instrument cluster altogether. Why have an entire cluster obstructing your view of the road just to display speed, battery level, RPM (irrelevant), temperature (irrelevant), fault light placeholders (irrelevant).

Actually,thinking back to motorcycles, you really need nothing more than speed and cpl of indicators like autopilot on/off, everything else is convenience (camera, media, navigation)

 

[winfield100]

Actually,thinking back to motorcycles, you really need nothing more than speed and cpl of indicators like autopilot on/off, everything else is convenience (camera, media, navigation)

You are completely correct. on one of my 1,030 mile runs to Florida in a Prius 2 years back, the entire instrument panel went dark, absolutely nothing. the headlites and the radio worked. nothing else. (it was just after sunrise) We used the GPS for "what the heck is my speed?" and the mile markers, and knew fuel consumption (gauge dead)
All we needed was speedometer to not go tooo fast and get a ticket in traffic that was averageing 75-80mph anyway (or dead stopped), and not run out of fuel.
like my flying instructor would yell at me, "FLY the %$#@* plane, not the instrument panel, look out the windows!!!!!"

 

[wdolson]

We should not underestimate BMW and the VW group, although even if the commitment is (would be?) truly there, they will have to fight their own unions and suppliers/long-term contracts should they push for a significant shift to EVs.

Having said that, worst case scenario for Tesla is not a weirdmobil i3, but a BMW 3 series EV, with 200+ miles of range and fast charging to compete with. But that begs the question: how would BMW be able to compete with the Model 3 price point without GF1 volumes and prices on cells/packs?

GM and/or LG may have been willing to eat the Bolt losses to undercut Tesla on delivery time for the $35k car, but it`s a limited run project. If BMW were to "pull a Volvo" and say: form 2019 all BMW 3 series will be EV (or EV + Hybrid), at what price point could they do that? Does LG or Samsung or a Chinese supplier have cells at that volume (411,844 BMW 3 series in 2016) at Tesla beating prices (including their own profit margin) available for BMW?

I believe not.

Or would BMW sell 400k 3 series per year at a loss just to kill Tesla?

Unlikely.

There is no way BMW could build more than a relatively few more EVs than they build now (maybe 10K a year). The battery supply just isn't there. Even if the electric 3 Series was a better car, they couldn't build enough.

The Chinese are building battery factories, but they are primarily for domestic consumption. There will be few cells available for export.

I doubt any car that was designed as an ICE and converted to an EV could match a car designed from the ground up to be an EV. Too many compromises need to be made to accommodate the battery pack.

 

[MitchJi]

There is no way BMW could build more than a relatively few more EVs than they build now (maybe 10K a year). The battery supply just isn't there. Even if the electric 3 Series was a better car, they couldn't build enough.

BMW clearly doesn't have either affordable batteries, or a strategy obtain affordable batteries.

 

[johnratty]

If the Model 3 is stellar and beyond expectations,

Elon is quoted as saying that the Model 3 will be "compelling" ie better than any other alternative out there.
Remember he said that the Model S would be "superlative" and that turned out to be true.

I would love to get a drive of one too! PM with Ideas.

 

[Phil Seastrand]

Remember he said that the Model S would be "superlative" and that turned out to be true.

Well, that is certainly subjective. I would definitely call the Model S "Superlative".

 

[wdolson]

Well, that is certainly subjective. I would definitely call the Model S "Superlative".

I normally have excellent sales resistance. However, I got upsold from the $30k-$40K range up into Model S territory because the Model S was so much better than any ICE out there.

 

[Waiting4M3]

...

Or would BMW sell 400k 3 series per year at a loss just to kill Tesla?

Unlikely.

I would say that's impossible. The Model 3 will compete against the entire segment of 3-series, A4, C-class and the likes. There are already 400K reservations, many people consider the Model 3 a better value than all those ICE cars, factoring in the whole COO. If BMW lowers the price on their 3-series, the victims of that price war will be the A4, C-class, not Tesla. The only way Tesla Model 3 can be killed is if the entire luxury sedan segment ALL decide to sell their cars at a loss, AND that ALL consumers will only buy EVs purely for economic reasons.

 

[neroden]

Elon is quoted as saying that the Model 3 will be "compelling" ie better than any other alternative out there.
Remember he said that the Model S would be "superlative" and that turned out to be true.

Right, so tone down your expectations -- Model 3 will merely be "compelling", not "superlative" like Model S.

 

[Sasmania]

If the Model 3 doesn't fail spectacularly in some unforeseen way, I expect that it'll be sold out in-perpetuity. But that'll be the subject of another post.[/QUOTE]

I totally agree. I think there will be at least a 6 month wait for the 3 for at least the next 5 years. Assuming Tesla can pump them out fast enough, I'd expect them to be the best selling car on the planet in several years. As of now your average person still doesn't even know what a Tesla is. Wait till the 3s start populating the middle class and then you will see people going up-market for the car just like what happened with the S as well as down market. The 3 will be stealing sales from every direction in every market from $15K to 85K.

 

[wdolson]

60% of Americans barely have a clue electric vehicles exist. Many people who have heard of Tesla think it's a hybrid.
Lack of awareness is surprisingly still the biggest problem for electric vehicle adoption

Main stream car dealers mostly discourage consumers from even knowing they have electric cars and Tesla has been out of the economic reach of 90% of the population. When the Model 3 comes out, a lot of middle class neighborhoods are going to be getting their first electric car and that owner will be showing his or her neighbors who will actually get a chance to see the technology close up.

There are basically 3 downsides to a well designed BEV:
1) Initial cost is more than an equivalent ICE (even the Model 3 will be a bit more expensive than equivalent cars).
2) They take longer to fuel than an ICE and fast charging on the road is not as ubiquitous as gas stations.
3) They lack the range of an ICE.

Tesla has put a pretty good sized dent in #2 with the superchargers, and the Model 3 will probably be the most EV car for the money ever built. The top end Model 3 will probably be below 300 miles, but the Model S entry level car will likely be over 300 miles range before the end of the year. 300 miles is the low end for an ICE, but it does overlap with ICE ranges.

In every other area, an EV is better. Putting the batteries under the floor, the layout of the car can offer a lot of utility, you get better torque, better acceleration, quieter, "fueling" at home, you can make your own fuel legally, etc. Once the public starts to become aware of these advantages, they will start demanding EVs and ICE will be ultimately doomed.

The problem for everyone else is in the only company outside of the Chinese market who is equipped to mass produce any EV is Tesla. The battery supply isn't there for anyone else to make more than fairly limited numbers.

And most of the mainstream car makers' EVs are not really very compelling as cars in the US. The top selling cars in the US are larger cars and Tesla is the only company making larger EVs. I think the Model 3 will be larger than every other non-Tesla BEV on the market in the US. The Model 3 is right in the size range of the only segment of the sedan market that is still healthy.

I suspect the Model Y will probably end up being more popular. My SO would prefer a Model Y if it isn't a weird-mobile. She doesn't like sedans and the X is way too big for her. She calls it a "moose". She is outstanding at seeing proportions, but she has a tough time believing the X is built on the same platform as the S (though she thinks my S is too big too).

 

[ggies07]

When the Model 3 comes out, a lot of middle class neighborhoods are going to be getting their first electric car and that owner will be showing his or her neighbors who will actually get a chance to see the technology close up.

*waves hand* that's me! I'll be the first to have an EV in the neighborhood and our houses are in the range of 250,000-500,000.

 

[wdolson]

*waves hand* that's me! I'll be the first to have an EV in the neighborhood and our houses our in the range of 250,000-500,000.

I live in a somewhat upper middle class neighborhood and my Model S is the only electric for blocks (though someone had a BMW i3 for a while, I think he worked for BMW because he seems to have a different BMW every month or two). There is a wealthier part of town on the other side of the hill and we've seen Teslas going in and out of that neighborhood. They are common enough now I usually see at least one when I'm out and about, but I'm still the only one in my immediate neighborhood.

When I got my car, there was only two neighbors who knew about them. One is an engineer who has been following Tesla since the days of the Roadster.