Very insightful interview. Thanks!!
Question about Tesla Network:
A lot of people believe that an ICE-AV is fundamentally uncompetitive to an EV-AV... Even if Google, Apple etc want to give the AV tech away for free to automakers, unless automakers are fully into EV making they will still remain uncompetitive right. So for others to put up a fight, they would have to 1) Google/Apple/etc have to develop the AV tech 2) Automakers have to fully integrate into their manufacturing processes (this can take a long time) 3) Develop EVs, fast charging networks or battery swap stations 4) Someone will have to build/operate a network to use these (maybe Uber/Lyft can short circuit this)... It still feel like Tesla has a potential lead of substantial magnitude.
Even if others come in with their own AV networks and try capitalising through ads and content, instead of fares, in theory Tesla could do the same. So an av network can be as lucrative to Tesla as it might be to other big players... Going to your FB example that's what happened right. FB became a behemoth in online ad market, despite Google being there already. So Google/Apple/Uber etc being already there in an AV network doesn't preclude Tesla from making it big there.
Overall I'm having hard time believing that Tesla may not benefit substantially from this. The key risk to Tesla as I see is the risk that it won't be able to attain FSD in a reasonably competitive time. As it stand right now, Tesla seems to be limping. But if it does attain in a good competitive time then Tesla has a fair chance of monetisation I feel.
For the record, I do agree with the Tesla Energy part.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying here. However, I do think there will be some major, major, major moves by big players in the near future (next 1-3 years). The reality is that Google (ie., Waymo), Apple, NVDA are very capable and very well-run companies. And they've already set their eyes on the autonomous transport industry in various ways. Uber, although they're in a bit or turmoil at the moment, also is a capable company as well. And then you've got Intel (w/Mobileye). Anyway, the point being is that these players aren't going to sit still and they have a lot of money to spend.
The problem with Apple and Google (and other large cap companies) is that it's difficult for them to find new large markets to conquer. There aren't that many of them. Thus, they've staked claims on autonomous transport because of its sheer size and also because of the coming disruption to take place.
I think in the next 1-3 years it's fairly obvious (at least to me) that Google or Uber or Apple either buy out an existing auto maker OR will start to make their own cars (ie., via Magna Steyr, Magna Steyr - Wikipedia) OR create some kind of joint venture partnership (ie., Waymo and an existing car company teams up to create a new line of cars).
Part of the reason it's almost inevitable is because 1) market is so large and tempting, 2) Tesla's efficiencies are too difficult to compete with, and thus 3) in order to compete they need to emulate Tesla's integrated strategy.
Tesla is definitely in the lead and I don't see that threatened any time soon, but looking out to 2025 I see a lot of competition from software-driven auto makers/partnerships (ie., Waymo or Uber or Apple branded cars and networks).