Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[JRP3]

In other words, just having an EV (compared to an ICE) doesn't radically improve or change my life. At least mine.

I think you're the minority, we hear time and time again how driving a Tesla has really changed the way people feel about driving and about cars in general. People often report how their formerly dreaded commute is now actually enjoyable. That's a real improvement in their quality of life.

 

[kbM3]

A few more encouraging thoughts to brighten up your day.

Are Tesla's cars really that disruptive, in the sense that they contain features or technology that other companies can't copy or catch up with?

In typical software/tech companies, the pace of technological change is so fast that it creates new opportunities that when seized and taken advantage of, sometimes it's difficult for others to compete. Sometimes seizing those opportunities leads to network effects or platform advantages (ie., iOS developer community with iPhone can't be easily copied).

In terms of Tesla, perhaps Tesla bulls have overestimated the disruption of EVs. While electric vehicles are revolutionary in the sense that they are changing the way cars are powered, are they really changing much about the core function of cars? Cars still drive from point A to point B, whether they are electric or ICE. From the outside they look the same. Similar cargo space. Overall, similar functions.

In other words, just having an EV (compared to an ICE) doesn't radically improve or change my life. At least mine.

Sure you can argue it's better for the world, which EVs are, but that's a tough sell to the individual.

You might argue that Tesla has an advantage in autonomy. But Tesla's long-term competitive advantage in that area is questionable, especially when you have some of the largest tech/software companies vying for that field (ie., Google, Apple, NVDA, Intel, and a whole host of others).

These large tech/software companies will give autonomy for free to car makers. And the autonomy will be good. These companies know what they are doing, especially in regards to software and AI.

The reality is that EVs still cost more than ICE cars, and that's the big bottle neck. But even if EVs costed less than ICE, would that fundamentally change the driving experience for people? Or rather will people still use cars to get from point A to point B?

Now, the iPhone was truly disruptive technology. They took the form factor of a phone, but gave the first real mobile web browsing experience, first real mobile multimedia experience, and launched the world's largest platform for developers. They called it a "phone" but really people didn't buy it to make phone calls. It was all the other revolutionary features.

So, tell me what revolutionary features (besides autonomy which is highly competitive) is Tesla really providing?

Or are Tesla cars still providing the same basic feature that ICE cars provide, transport from point A to point B?

Watch the Autoline special with Sandy Munro.

Tesla’s advantages are:

1). Elon. Look at what he’s done with SpaceX. Aerospace giants are completely unable to even compete.
2). Sandy also mentioned how brilliant the Tesla engineers are. He even laments how difficult it is for his own company to find people of this caliber. Tesla is a top 5 destination in the world for the smartest people on the planet,
3). Look at the Superbottle. It is very emblematic of the huge disadvantages legacy auto have in the very way they are organized and structured. Large legacy auto companies cannot compete with Tesla’s electronics and software capability. One would think if anything legacy advantages would be in suspensions and ride/handling characteristics, but Tesla has already caught up there.
4). Vertical integration.

Autonomy: Yes other automakers will be able to purchase from Mobileye..., but Amnon said they’re planning to charge $10k+ to those companies. Once again vertical integration.

I predict Tesla’s biggest long term advantage will be exactly what Elon predicted it would be after others have caught up on autonomy. Manufacturing prowess.

 

[DaveT]

For Tesla in a decade to reach 1/2 the size [in number of vehicles sold] of Daimler and BMW
(~2.5 million vehicles each) should impress most everyone.

To explain stock prices, seems to allude most everyone.
I'm impressed, even if I can't explain/understand stock prices.

If Tesla sells just 1.25M vehicles in 2029, then TSLA is extremely overvalued at the present.

 

[DaveT]

I think you're the minority, we hear time and time again how driving a Tesla has really changed the way people feel about driving and about cars in general. People often report how their formerly dreaded commute is now actually enjoyable. That's a real improvement in their quality of life.

Yes Autopilot helps greatly with commuting, but that technology is likely to be commoditized soon with big tech/software companies offering it for free.

 

[mongo]

If Tesla sells just 1.25M vehicles in 2029, then TSLA is extremely overvalued at the present.

If Tesla production is flat (per your earlier post), then there is no R&D nor capital expansion.
Q4 2018 was 90k vehicles, and they made 210 million. Drop the 350k of R&D and they made 560k. Worst case, other costs scale with volume: 300 million vehicles a quarter is 3.3x so 1.848 billion a quarter in profit, 7.4 billion a year. Divided by 176 million shares is $42 a share dividend. At 5% return, share price of $840. Initially over a 7% YoY growth rate from the current price.

Ignoring energy, the nonlinearity of fixed costs, cost optimization....

 

[Brando]

If Tesla sells just 1.25M vehicles in 2029, then TSLA is extremely overvalued at the present.

2013+10 years = 2023 -> I'm guessing Tesla will reach 1.25M by then, as they seem to usually grow ~50% per year.

Just my guesses, but this seems reasonable to me, you?
Very difficult to project 5 years ahead and even more difficult to project 10 years ahead.

2009 2nd year of Roadster (near 1,000 built total) did we expect what we have in 2019? I wasn't sure the stock market would come back, let alone Tesla would bring out the Model S after Fisker rip-off and I think a year later that Franz was hired, right?

anyway, predictions are tough, especially of the future

thanks again DaveT - appreciate you thoughts, even if I don't completely agree, but then again, I guess I'm the only one that completely agrees with me

 

[ggies07]

Tesla struggling with achieving decent margins on their $35k is concerning. It's shows poor execution and poor planning

I do agree with this. They've had at least three years to get there and they haven't yet....

 

[Heart Land]

The Curious Case of Decreasing/Stagnating Model S Demand and What That Means for Tesla's Long-Term Future

Alright, so here's the gist of the argument.

Model S/X demand has weakened gradually over the past several years.

This is evidenced by Tesla effectively lowering the price (ie., including more range, features, etc. in the price) but sales not increasing.

If Tesla didn't add features/range for the same price, then most likely sales would actually decreased.

Gradual weakening of Model S/X demand wasn't forecasted by many, if any, bulls.

In fact, we may get only 45k Model Ss sold in 2019 if Tesla sells slightly more Model Xs than Ss and if total unit number is 95k units.

If EV demand is growing and the Tesla Model S is a far superior car than its competitors, then you'd imagine demand to be increasing, not decreasing.

This is concerning. But not so much for Model S's sake, but for Model 3 and Model Y.

What's to say that the Model 3 doesn't go through the same decreasing demand (or stagnating demand) as the Model S?

Perhaps when Model Y comes out, it will hit Model 3 demand some.

Perhaps when other EVs come out in next few years, that will hit Model 3 demand some.

ICE cars at $35k are very good. And might be better for most people than a 220 mile Model 3. (Now a $35k Model 3 that had 300 mile range would be different.)

Tesla struggling with achieving decent margins on their $35k is concerning. It's shows poor execution and poor planning. And it also limits their demand. And bulls might say Tesla will fix that. But it might not be that easy.

I'm not saying Model 3 is doomed by any means, but what I am saying is what if long-term demand (meaning in 10 years time) for the Model 3 is 500-600k cars/year... roughly the same as it is now.

And what if demand for Model Y is similar, maybe slightly more at 600-700k cars/year.

Side note, the problem with the Model Y is twofold. First, the Model Y will cost more than the Model 3 because it'll be a slightly bigger car. So maybe $3000 more. But it's likely that the Model Y will have less range than the Model 3. So, let's say 200 miles. That range is not acceptable. So, maybe Tesla will need to offer a higher standard range, but that only increases the price, which decreases total addressable market (aka demand).

So, if Tesla is doing 90-100k Model S/X per year, 500k Model 3, 600k Model Y... and this number isn't growing and is stagnant for the next several years (or decade), then where does the massive revenue growth that Tesla needs come from?

The pickup? That's just one line and it's questionable if Tesla's pickup will sell over 300k cars a year.

Semi? Again, just another line and won't bring in as much revenue as Model 3 and Y.

Energy? Talk to me when it brings in at least $1B/year in profit.

So, what if Tesla gets stuck in the luxury market, and that luxury market isn't growing much and isn't big enough to continue to grow Tesla's revenue at a pace it needs.

Does Tesla need to get into the economy market? But they're not ready and won't be ready for years. The Camry and Accord are just too good at $20-25k. And Toyota can gradually electrify their cars over the next 5-10 years.

Maybe Tesla needs true energy storage breakthrough? But we can't count on that.

Tesla Network ain't coming any time soon.

Perhaps the Tesla bulls have underestimated the competition. Cheap ICE cars are actually very good. They do the job of getting from point A to point B very well and very cheaply. Autonomy also will likely become a commodity with many big tech companies completely willing to give it for free. And the transition to EVs is moving slow, slow enough that companies like Toyota can take their time but still get in the game with the help of Panasonic selling them cheap cells, probably almost as cheap as Tesla gets them.

Does Tesla really want to fight it out with the likes of Toyota for cheap, low margin manufacturing? I hope not as that's not a very sexy business and will command very low P/E multiples.

So, how does Tesla get to a trillion dollar market cap again? Or even a $500B market cap?

----
@EinSV I read your reply to my other post, but would like to hear your thoughts on this one as well.

other bulls - please don't be alarmed. I'm still very long TSLA. But I'm sick of hearing shallow reasoning and "faith-based" hope for Tesla's future. Tell me rationally if and how my thoughts above are incorrect.

Dave, love your posts. I appreciate the balanced and thought provoking analysis. In my opinion, and I also recall Elon mentioning this, the biggest advantage Tesla will have are their Gigafactories. This is often overlooked. My sense is that many on this forum do not come from a manufacturing background and so it is difficult to measure the magnitude of these factories. The traditional OEMs are stuck in their bureaucracies and do not have a culture of innovation. Performing simple tasks in these traditional factories are surprisingly complicated and get completed at a slothlike pace, if they get completed at all. Traditional OEMs are excellent at making their product at a high quality, but they are stuck in their system. GF3 is supposed to start producing cars by the end of the year, about one year after breaking ground. If they even come close to this, it will be miraculous. This is about 2x faster than anybody else has done, and they’ve been making cars for 100 yrs but for Tesla it’s basically only their 2nd factory. Tesla keeps learning how to manufacture their products better and their efficiencies keep improving. The cost improvements have been steady and consistent. There is no reason for me to think they will not be able to sell the 35k M3 at good margins. The other OEMs cannot do this. They may be able to make an EV, but it will not be cost competitive or will not have near as good of an experience at the same price.

This leads to another point about the EV transition. It will happen because the quality of the ride is better in an EV. Autonomy will be a big part of the quality of the ride. There may be others that will have the autonomous software, but it will need to be an EV to effectively support that software.

The GFs make this all possible. The car is important. But making a better driving experience affordable to the masses is what will differentiate Tesla from the rest. The high margins will stay as Tesla continues to innovate and improve.

Lastly, I’ve assumed the loss of S/X demand is due to increased Chinese tariffs in most of Q4, a slowing Global economy which will impact S/x sales greatly, and M3 stealing some demand. I’m interested to see how the refresh boosts demand.

 

[Brando]

I do agree with this. They've had at least three years to get there and they haven't yet....

Model 3 started July 2017 and so in July 2019 you can talk about 3 years.
correction would be:"They've had at least 1.5 years to get there ..."

idea: moderators could delete obvious false statements? I know, a slippery slope.

PS- April 2013 Elon asked when Model 3 production would start:
“Hopefully 2016, but I would say no later than 2017.”

reminder 2012 Model S only in Q4 2013 was first full year of production of Model S

 

[DaveT]

2013+10 years = 2023 -> I'm guessing Tesla will reach 1.25M by then, as they seem to usually grow ~50% per year.

Just my guesses, but this seems reasonable to me, you?
Very difficult to project 5 years ahead and even more difficult to project 10 years ahead.

2009 2nd year of Roadster (near 1,000 built total) did we expect what we have in 2019? I wasn't sure the stock market would come back, let alone Tesla would bring out the Model S after Fisker rip-off and I think a year later that Franz was hired, right?

anyway, predictions are tough, especially of the future

thanks again DaveT - appreciate you thoughts, even if I don't completely agree, but then again, I guess I'm the only one that completely agrees with me

This is an interesting read from over 5 years ago:

2019: The long horizon approach to TSLA investing

 

[DaveT]

Dave, love your posts. I appreciate the balanced and thought provoking analysis. In my opinion, and I also recall Elon mentioning this, the biggest advantage Tesla will have are their Gigafactories. This is often overlooked. My sense is that many on this forum do not come from a manufacturing background and so it is difficult to measure the magnitude of these factories. The traditional OEMs are stuck in their bureaucracies and do not have a culture of innovation. Performing simple tasks in these traditional factories are surprisingly complicated and get completed at a slothlike pace, if they get completed at all. Traditional OEMs are excellent at making their product at a high quality, but they are stuck in their system. GF3 is supposed to start producing cars by the end of the year, about one year after breaking ground. If they even come close to this, it will be miraculous. This is about 2x faster than anybody else has done, and they’ve been making cars for 100 yrs but for Tesla it’s basically only their 2nd factory. Tesla keeps learning how to manufacture their products better and their efficiencies keep improving. The cost improvements have been steady and consistent. There is no reason for me to think they will not be able to sell the 35k M3 at good margins. The other OEMs cannot do this. They may be able to make an EV, but it will not be cost competitive or will not have near as good of an experience at the same price.

This leads to another point about the EV transition. It will happen because the quality of the ride is better in an EV. Autonomy will be a big part of the quality of the ride. There may be others that will have the autonomous software, but it will need to be an EV to effectively support that software.

The GFs make this all possible. The car is important. But making a better driving experience affordable to the masses is what will differentiate Tesla from the rest. The high margins will stay as Tesla continues to innovate and improve.

Lastly, I’ve assumed the loss of S/X demand is due to increased Chinese tariffs in most of Q4, a slowing Global economy which will impact S/x sales greatly, and M3 stealing some demand. I’m interested to see how the refresh boosts demand.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Regarding Gigafactories as a competitive advantage, I'm not sure about that. It's interesting to note that Tesla isn't building a factory to build cells in China, but rather they are sourcing locally, from Japan and from their own Nevada GF. If building cells in their own GF was such a competitive advantage, I'd imagine that they would make that a priority in China. However, this appears to be a change in their strategy, at least for the time being. They are notably leaving out cell production for their Shanghai factory plans. I think there are several reasons for this. First, I think that cell costs from other manufacturers have decreased to the point where it actually makes sense for Tesla to buy from local sources (especially when taking into account shipping, etc). Second, I think the quality of cells from other manufacturers also are of good enough quality that Tesla feels they aren't significantly lower quality than what Panasonic provides. Thus, while producing cells in a Tesla GF in China might lower costs nominally, perhaps it's not significant enough to justify the additional capex spending and also time required to get cell production up and running.

Tesla keeps learning how to manufacture their products better and their efficiencies keep improving. The cost improvements have been steady and consistent. There is no reason for me to think they will not be able to sell the 35k M3 at good margins. The other OEMs cannot do this. They may be able to make an EV, but it will not be cost competitive or will not have near as good of an experience at the same price." So, what exactly does Tesla have that gives them such an advantage in costs? I'm not sure where the evidence for that is, and I think perhaps a lot of people at TMC might be underestimating the cost efficiencies that Toyota has in making a Corolla or Camry.

So far, Tesla hasn't been able to make a $35k EV at positive margins, so we shall see when they're able to do that and how good their margins are. But I'm not seeing a reason why Toyota can't catch up and build a competitive EV. They have the scale and they have manufacturing expertise. They first and foremost need cheap cells, and their recent deal with Panasonic shows they've now secured that part of it. Now Toyota needs to develop module, packs, and motors, etc. But they do have longstanding expertise in electric/hybrid engines/systems that can carry over to fully electric vehicles. And making a model, pack, motors is not rocket science. It's fairly straightforward, especially since it's been done before. It's all about costs. And to say that no other manufacturer other than Tesla can make a quality EV at a competitive price seems to be stretching it. I just don't see the evidence for that.

This leads to another point about the EV transition. It will happen because the quality of the ride is better in an EV. Autonomy will be a big part of the quality of the ride. There may be others that will have the autonomous software, but it will need to be an EV to effectively support that software.

I think we can separate "quality of ride" into actual driving the car and autonomy. For actual driving the car, sure it's smoother in acceleration but there's quite a few ICE cars that beat the Model S/X in terms of comfort and luxury. In terms of autonomy, as I shared before I think this technology will be commoditized by the big tech/software companies. So while Tesla has an advantage currently, it's questionable how long that advantage will last.

 

[Waiting4M3]

This is an interesting read from over 5 years ago:

2019: The long horizon approach to TSLA investing

Very nice prediction, Tesla is likely behind your projection by 1 year, but this is still very prescient. And on top of that, that $420 call

 

[DaveT]

If Tesla production is flat (per your earlier post), then there is no R&D nor capital expansion.
Q4 2018 was 90k vehicles, and they made 210 million. Drop the 350k of R&D and they made 560k. Worst case, other costs scale with volume: 300 million vehicles a quarter is 3.3x so 1.848 billion a quarter in profit, 7.4 billion a year. Divided by 176 million shares is $42 a share dividend. At 5% return, share price of $840. Initially over a 7% YoY growth rate from the current price.

Ignoring energy, the nonlinearity of fixed costs, cost optimization....

A probably better way to look at it is if Tesla made $7.4 billion in profit in 2029 based on selling 1.25M cars, then their P/E would probably be under 10 since they would have little to no growth. So max value would be $74B market cap. Not much increase from today.

 

[oneday]

A probably better way to look at it is if Tesla made $7.4 billion in profit in 2029 based on selling 1.25M cars, then their P/E would probably be under 10 since they would have little to no growth. So max value would be $74B market cap. Not much increase from today.

If they have an ASP of $50k and 20% net margin that’s $12.5 billion in net profit. With a mix of S,X,Y,Roadster II, Pickup, and Semi I think $50k is in the neighborhood. Also that says nothing about TE which Elon says will have more growth than automotive. So at least $125 billion market cap with a P/E of 10.

 

[DaveT]

If they have an ASP of $50k and 20% net margin that’s $12.5 billion in net profit. With a mix of S,X,Y,Roadster II, Pickup, and Semi I think $50k is in the neighborhood. Also that says nothing about TE which Elon says will have more growth than automotive. So at least $125 billion market cap with a P/E of 10.

Tough to reach 20% net margin. Max of 15% of more likely. And P/E of 10 is max case scenario, more likely lower.

 

[DaveT]

Here’s some more encouragement.

For those who think Tesla’s competitive advantage is and will be manufacturing, let’s take a look at this.

Model 3 was supposed to be the beginning of Tesla’s ambitious alien dreadnought plans.

And look at how it’s panned out. It was a miserable failure, almost ruining the company.

Tesla’s manufacturing has been a competitive disadvantage (just look at Model X falcon door fiasco and Model 3 ramp fiasco).

And now we are to believe that somehow Tesla will become the best manufacturer in the world?

Enough of hopes and dreams. Let’s base things off of track record, and if we do so I don’t know if really we can claim manufacturing a competitive advantage.

Sure, maybe Tesla changes and gets their act together and does become the best manufacturer in the world. But that’s far from guaranteed.

And just looking at their track record, that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen. I sure hope it does. But it's hope.

Just keeping it real.

 

[Brando]

Tesla open sources patents, tells why they use 18650 and then 21700 and still no real competitors yet.
Safest, quickest, perhaps still cheapest to operate? still best for road trips, Model 3 seems to be proving to be best handling.

Everyone else seems to be selling belows costs (compliance only numbers built, volume key to improve costs).
So obviously easy, yet no one seems able to do. This will be an interesting year. Will Audi e-tron actually make and sell 40,000? Or Audi e-tron + Porsche = 40,000 vehicles? Jag sell 40,000 ?? Bolt?

Will ANY auto company meet the projections DaveT gave 5 years ago for Tesla ?? When was the last time they showed such growth for any car models ?? Only a hand full. Perhaps all those Mexican Factories paying $1-$2 an hour ??

Not nearly as simple as armchair analysts would care to imagine. Just ask Bob Lutz.

Tesla secrets seem to be safety ratings, battery chemistries, pack constructions, cabling, electronics, software (track mode?), SuperCharger - how much longer?
Model options 3 of Model S; 3 of Model X; 3 of Model 3 and all with 5 colors, 2 interior colors; a few wheel/tire options
delivery times trending down? Most all made to existing orders?

Won't be easy to hang onto these "leading factors" but with continuous improvements Tesla has a good chance, seems to me. side note: Tesla R&D seems well below ANY other car maker, right? [2010-2017 <$4.3 Billion.

Toyota COULD really surprise me and make electric Corolla or Camry? Could/would it compete with Model 3? Well just be cheaper would be enough, right? But make them and sell them in the same numbers.
I doubt they can/would. Most can guess the reasons why.

 

[Heart Land]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Regarding Gigafactories as a competitive advantage, I'm not sure about that. It's interesting to note that Tesla isn't building a factory to build cells in China, but rather they are sourcing locally, from Japan and from their own Nevada GF. If building cells in their own GF was such a competitive advantage, I'd imagine that they would make that a priority in China. However, this appears to be a change in their strategy, at least for the time being. They are notably leaving out cell production for their Shanghai factory plans. I think there are several reasons for this. First, I think that cell costs from other manufacturers have decreased to the point where it actually makes sense for Tesla to buy from local sources (especially when taking into account shipping, etc). Second, I think the quality of cells from other manufacturers also are of good enough quality that Tesla feels they aren't significantly lower quality than what Panasonic provides. Thus, while producing cells in a Tesla GF in China might lower costs nominally, perhaps it's not significant enough to justify the additional capex spending and also time required to get cell production up and running.



So far, Tesla hasn't been able to make a $35k EV at positive margins, so we shall see when they're able to do that and how good their margins are. But I'm not seeing a reason why Toyota can't catch up and build a competitive EV. They have the scale and they have manufacturing expertise. They first and foremost need cheap cells, and their recent deal with Panasonic shows they've now secured that part of it. Now Toyota needs to develop module, packs, and motors, etc. But they do have longstanding expertise in electric/hybrid engines/systems that can carry over to fully electric vehicles. And making a model, pack, motors is not rocket science. It's fairly straightforward, especially since it's been done before. It's all about costs. And to say that no other manufacturer other than Tesla can make a quality EV at a competitive price seems to be stretching it. I just don't see the evidence for that.



I think we can separate "quality of ride" into actual driving the car and autonomy. For actual driving the car, sure it's smoother in acceleration but there's quite a few ICE cars that beat the Model S/X in terms of comfort and luxury. In terms of autonomy, as I shared before I think this technology will be commoditized by the big tech/software companies. So while Tesla has an advantage currently, it's questionable how long that advantage will last.

Regarding the Gigafactories, the competitive advantage is the “magic” involved in making the modules, battery packs, drivetrains, cars, etc. It’s all of it working together in a highly efficient manner, that produces the magic. This is very hard to accomplish. The traditional OEMs will need to take risks they are not accustomed to making in order to try and compete. They will be out of their comfort zones. Some companies will eventually figure it out, but they are years away and Tesla is still improving at a rapid pace. I think too much attention is put on the battery cell. I agree, where the cell is made seems to be of less importance now.

Toyota needs to commit to mass producing EVs first before I’d worry about them sucking up demand. Although, I agree there will inevitably be competitors. I personally think some of the Chinese car companies seem further ahead. I think their manufacturing expertise gives them the advantage.

Regarding autonomy and EVs. Maybe I’m wrong but I thought ICE vehicles have too much lag to react quick enough. At a minimum the vehicle would have to be a hybrid to run the software and autonomy hardware. This is not my area of expertise though.

Overall, I think all of your concerns are well warranted. These are my justifications for staying invested. Ultimately, I am betting that Wall Street does not know how to value the GFs since no car company has approached manufacturing like Tesla has. I also think there is tremendous potential for Utility and Commercial storage that is not being properly valued. However, I am not convinced that residential solar and storage will meet expectations. In the Midwest we just had -40F wind chills and a bunch of snow dumped on us. We have cheap utility costs. How is solar and storage going to work in these extremes, with little sunlight, and compete with the low energy costs? I’m interested to see what solutions Tesla develope and if they can solve these issues.

 

[Heart Land]

Here’s some more encouragement.

For those who think Tesla’s competitive advantage is and will be manufacturing, let’s take a look at this.

Model 3 was supposed to be the beginning of Tesla’s ambitious alien dreadnought plans.

And look at how it’s panned out. It was a miserable failure, almost ruining the company.

Tesla’s manufacturing has been a competitive disadvantage (just look at Model X falcon door fiasco and Model 3 ramp fiasco).

And now we are to believe that somehow Tesla will become the best manufacturer in the world?

Enough of hopes and dreams. Let’s base things off of track record, and if we do so I don’t know if really we can claim manufacturing a competitive advantage.

Sure, maybe Tesla changes and gets their act together and does become the best manufacturer in the world. But that’s far from guaranteed.

And just looking at their track record, that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen. I sure hope it does. But it's hope.

Just keeping it real.

I actually look at their track record and see something different. They are doing something no other company has done. There have been mistakes along the way. But the pace of innovation is what is so amazing. If Usain Bolt is in a race with a granny in a walker, I’ll put my money on Usain Bolt every time, even if the granny has a big head start. No other car company has scaled faster.

 

[WarpedOne]

Why the hell I'm it this thread again?!
DaveT, welcome to the ignore list.

Concern troll is concerned indeed.