Articles/megaposts by DaveT

[dennis]

@DaveT I feel that you have overlooked a couple of key factors in Model S's declining demand that resulted in a number of logical leaps for other models that aren't warranted.

1) Take a look at carsalesbase.com for any luxury model's demand over a number of years, such as S Class or 7 Series. You will notice a distinct pattern where after a new generation of the product is introduced every 5-6 years there is a jump in demand for 18-24 months followed by a gradual decay for the next 3-4 years until the subsequent generation is introduced. Sometimes there is a mid-cycle smaller bump when a mild facelifted version is introduced but not always.

Model S is almost 7 years old. There is been one minor facelift. It is amazing to me that Tesla has been able to maintain almost flat demand even though a new generation of Model S is clearly needed. This is further reinforced by the number of areas where the Model 3 is superior to the more expensive Model S such as interior convenience features and motor efficiency.

2) Within each price bracket there is a limit to the Total Available Market based on how many consumers can afford a car at that price. Again it is amazing that Model S commands a 30%-40% market share, especially when you consider the number of states where the state legislatures have made it difficult for consumers to purchase a Tesla product.

Auto makers participate in many market segments. Since automobiles is a mature market there is continual sub-segmentation as vendors try to create niches where they can eke out incremental sales gains at the expense of competitors. One such example is the "luxury 4-door coupe" [sic] created by Mercedes with the CLS and copied by BMW with the 6 Series Gran Coupe and Audi with the A7. We see it again with the ridiculous "SUV Coupes" started by BMW with the X6 and copied by Mercedes GLE 43/63 Coupe and now Audi with the Q8. All of these are attempted to attract incremental buyers in a stagnant segment. Tesla is way too immature as a company to participate in any sub-segmentation. That can come later after Tesla is offering products in the major market segments.

With the price points of the S/X Tesla participated in only two segments and was limited to about $10B in annual revenues based on the $100K ASP of those vehicles. With Model 3 Tesla is adding another ~$25B in annual revenue at 500K-600K units. Model Y has the potential to add another $40B in annual revenue. Now we are at $75B for 4 models.

Ford sells 750K pickups domestically. That market has the potential for another $25B in Tesla revenue with 500K units @ $50K ASP. So now Tesla is a $100B revenue company in 2024 just in automotive. Up from $11B in 2017. That's a CAGR of 37%, and a much faster growth to $100B than even Amazon achieved.

My key points:
- Demand for every auto model is cyclical based on the age of the design. The Model S is not immune.
- Every new market segment Tesla enters offers the potential for huge increments in revenue because Tesla is addressing adjacent markets with little overlap with their current market
- Tesla's market reach is limited by the auto dealer lobby in the US and the nascent infrastructure they have in international markets because the company is new
- The true measure of how well Tesla is doing IMO is what their penetration level is in the market segments they currently serve. With S/X they are the segment leader in luxury sedans and SUV's in the US and a number of international markets. The Model 3 clearly has a dominant position in premium sedans in the US and that success should continue in the international markets. Tesla must continue to deliver class-leading products in the new segments they will be entering in the next 4 years. If they do Tesla should be able to command AMZN/NFLX valuation multiples.

 

[azaz]

Just really wanna thank you guys for the high level discourse in this thread.

I think one aspect overlooked is the brand. Since about the iPhone 4 or so I would say that competing Android phones have probably been just as good. Difference is an iPhone is seen as the premium desired thing among my generation. Same thing with Tesla. It’s seen as the cool new thing.

 

[Sancho]

Here’s some more encouragement.

For those who think Tesla’s competitive advantage is and will be manufacturing, let’s take a look at this.

Model 3 was supposed to be the beginning of Tesla’s ambitious alien dreadnought plans.

And look at how it’s panned out. It was a miserable failure, almost ruining the company.

Tesla’s manufacturing has been a competitive disadvantage (just look at Model X falcon door fiasco and Model 3 ramp fiasco).

And now we are to believe that somehow Tesla will become the best manufacturer in the world?

Enough of hopes and dreams. Let’s base things off of track record, and if we do so I don’t know if really we can claim manufacturing a competitive advantage.

Sure, maybe Tesla changes and gets their act together and does become the best manufacturer in the world. But that’s far from guaranteed.

And just looking at their track record, that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen. I sure hope it does. But it's hope.

Just keeping it real.

As you continue to find your voice as a skeptical Tesla bull, try not to lapse into the tactics of the incorrigible bears. It’s easy to attack any company (or person) by focusing on its mistakes, but the attack misrepresents if it ignores the successes. Tesla’s innovations sometime go disastrously wrong, but its pace of successful innovation is spectacular.

 

[mongo]

Here’s some more encouragement.

For those who think Tesla’s competitive advantage is and will be manufacturing, let’s take a look at this.

Model 3 was supposed to be the beginning of Tesla’s ambitious alien dreadnought plans.

And look at how it’s panned out. It was a miserable failure, almost ruining the company.

Tesla’s manufacturing has been a competitive disadvantage (just look at Model X falcon door fiasco and Model 3 ramp fiasco).

And now we are to believe that somehow Tesla will become the best manufacturer in the world?

Enough of hopes and dreams. Let’s base things off of track record, and if we do so I don’t know if really we can claim manufacturing a competitive advantage.

Sure, maybe Tesla changes and gets their act together and does become the best manufacturer in the world. But that’s far from guaranteed.

And just looking at their track record, that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen. I sure hope it does. But it's hope.

Just keeping it real.

Tesls has produced a grand total of 4, count em, 4 vehicle types.
Only one thus far has been planned (or achieved) over 100k a year in volume.
Did the 3 line have teething issues? Yes.
Did they learn? Yes
Does the 3 line still have much few stations than a typical line? Yes
Is it producing cars at an estimated sub $30k cost (per independent tear downs)? Yes
Is the SR pack line ready yet? No
Does Tesla have more vertical integration than most OEMs? Yes
Will Y repeat the same mistakes? No
Will Y make new mistakes? Probably
Will Y have extra contingency options? Hopefully
Is it easier to make profit as you have higher volumes? Yes
Am I channeling Jason Bateman's Nick Wilde character from Zootopia Q&A style? Yes.

 

[EinSV]

@DaveT I think Tesla has never been better positioned in its history.

Performance in Q3 and Q4 was superb in my opinion and as we learn more about the competition's EV offerings, it is clear to me that Tesla will not have meaningful competition for its most important cash generating products for years to come.

Since you are focusing on the long-term let me throw out what I think are reasonable targets for 2023 (4-5 years), based on company guidance where available.

700K Model 3 @$45K $31.5B
1M Model Y @$45K $45B
300K pickup @$50K $15B
100K S/X @$100K $10B
100K Semi @$165K $16.5B
100K solar roof @$40K $4B
5K Roadster at $225K $1.1B
Storage $8B
Service and Other $6B

Total: $137.1B

After 2023, as @dennis suggests, Tesla can branch out to produce a much broader variety of vehicles, and in some cases (especially Semi, pickup, storage and solar roof) continue to expand on products in the list above.

A few other areas that deserve special mention IMO:

Semi, Pickup, Truck-Based SUVs and other Trucks

In one of the earnings calls, Elon provided a production target of 100K Semis per year. I believe that likely will turn out to be like the 20K production target for the Model S and could easily turn into 200-300K per year or more. There is no meaningful competition in sight as the industry leader (Daimler) claims Tesla's specs defy the law of physics. I take this as an acknowledgment of the obvious -- Daimler cannot compete with these specs and isn't even making a pretense that it can. Trucking is an area where CFOs will support a high upfront price if the TCO makes it worth it. 200-300K Semis at an ASP of $165K is ~$33B-$50B. Tesla can also, if it wants, expand to smaller trucks, Sprinter vans, and other commercial vehicles.

For the same reason it should own the Semi market, Tesla should do extremely well with pickups and truck-based SUVs. These vehicles have high ASPs, high GHG emissions and should be a prime target for Tesla to leverage its battery and EV powertrain superiority. Without having seen the design, I have some concerns that the cyber-punk pickup may not be a big hit initially, but even if it's not Tesla can introduce a more traditional pickup in relatively short order, or pivot and decide to change the design to make it more mainstream. Whichever way it goes, once Tesla has a solid pickup platform it can expand to a full line of pickups (ala F150 to F750), as well as a full spectrum of truck-based SUVs (ala Bronco, Explorer, Expedition).

Tesla Energy

I am excited by the long-term prospects for Tesla Energy. Tesla tripled storage installations in 2018 and Elon is forecasting a doubling of installations annually for some time to come. The importance of battery storage to the transformation of the grid cannot be understated, and IMO no one is better positioned than Tesla to capitalize on what should be a very rapid growth of solar/wind plus storage installations worldwide. There is also a large opportunity for Tesla to use its software chops for competitive advantage and profit in the storage arena if it chooses to make that a priority. Solar roof should also be a compelling product and while it has been delayed even more than the average Tesla product, I expect it will do well once it launches at volume.

Cash, Capital Efficiency and the Accelerating Speed to Build Gigafactories

2018 was a pivotal year for many reasons, one of which is that Tesla got fed up with being dependent on the whims of the market and figured out how to grow very fast using cash it generates itself. It generated operating cash flow at a rate of $5B/year in the last half of the year, far more than it says it needs to fund its ambitious plans for 2019 and 2020. Also, Elon says they can build GF3 extremely rapidly and at lost cost -- $500M for 150,000 cars per year, with production starting in about a year. They have not elaborated on their long-term China plans, but hinted that this first stage represents only 10% of the capacity of the final GF, which could mean they have production of up to 1.5M cars in mind. Similarly, Tesla believes it can produce twice as many Model Ys or more for the same amount of capital used for Model 3 production.

The ability to rapidly convert cash into relatively inexpensive Gigafactories producing higher volumes of cars (and cash) per dollar invested is insanely bullish IMO not just for profit margins, but because the very fast cash generation cycle and reduced capital costs can result in a rapid cycle of gigafactories, entirely self-funded. Tesla is structured to internally self-fund continued extreme growth, which is not something many people (including bulls) expected.

Model S is doing well

That gets us to the Model S. I believe the changes to the Model S lineup have as much to do with Tesla's laser focus on cash as anything else. Tesla significantly increased the entry level Model S price -- from $76,000 to $85,000. While they also reduced the cost of some configurations, if the changes to the line-up were driven primarily by demand concerns I would have expected them to reduce the price of the entry level model, not raise it significantly. By eliminating one shift, leveraging their production improvements and selling a few less cars at a higher price they hope to come out ahead on cash flow. (They also may be making some changes to battery chemistry that will result in reduced volume in the short term -- we'll see.)

Also, for context, you probably recall similar concerns about Model S demand in 2016 -- there are entire threads on TMC with some members suggesting Model S demand would crater now that Model X production was up and running. When Tesla introduced its $66,000 S60 in June 2016, that fueled the demand concerns even more. 2-3 years later, after the launch of the Model X and Model 3, and the US tax credit being cut in half, the entry level Model S at $85K is $19,000 more expensive. Yet Tesla will likely still sell similar volumes by the time the year is over (although we may see some price changes along the way).

I think Tesla is doing just fine with the Model S, and in any event has incredible growth prospects with the Model Y, a full line of trucks from pickups to Semis, storage, etc., and is developing a cash generation machine that can be used for quick, reduced cost GF building. For these reasons and many more, I have never been more excited about Tesla's future.

 

[ggies07]

Model 3 started July 2017 and so in July 2019 you can talk about 3 years.
correction would be:"They've had at least 1.5 years to get there ..."

idea: moderators could delete obvious false statements? I know, a slippery slope.

PS- April 2013 Elon asked when Model 3 production would start:
“Hopefully 2016, but I would say no later than 2017.”

reminder 2012 Model S only in Q4 2013 was first full year of production of Model S

ok, so ALMOST 3 years.....I took it from March 31, 2016, when they opened up the reservations that day and then had the unveiling that night. They had to have worked on the car at least a year before that to get it ready, so nothing false about my statement.

 

[JRP3]

1M Model Y @$45K $45B
300K pickup @$50K $15B

I'd say your asp for both are low.

 

[EinSV]

I'd say your asp for both are low.

I agree with you but used a conservative number until we hear something definitive from Tesla on pricing/ASP.

 

[Singer3000]

Let me attempt a counter Dave.

As you note, Tesla have maintained S&X demand by offering an improved car at the same price point. But even though they’re offering more car/tech for the money, they’ve also maintained or even enhanced their gross margin. Glass half full.

Consistently selling 100k S&X per year at 25-30% gross margin surpasses the original expectations of all but the hyper bull (and almost certainly management). And they’ve done that without traditional advertising. To go meaningfully above this number would probably require a cut in margins and also carry opportunity cost - e.g. Fremont factory floor space, paint shop emission caps etc... One man’s “stagnant demand” is another’s comfortable steady state. Management seem to have purposefully paused at this level rather than pushing higher.

We haven’t seen the specs for the Model Y yet so I’m not prepared to talk about 1m unit per year demand yet. But it does seem clear that c.500k of 3 per year is probably consistently achievable. This is IF AND ONLY IF the SR version is released. You have a healthy scepticism on their ability to release the SR 3. Others look at Tesla’s track record in hitting gross margin targets and the positive conclusions of independent tear-downs of the 3 and trust they’ll get there soon enough.

In terms of valuation, my personal goal in a foreseeable timeframe is roughly a tripling in market cap from now. And I think this is fairly comfortably achievable from the declared product pipeline. So still a bit below Toyota today. It doesn’t require Tesla to put everyone else out of business either. But it does require Tesla to stay at the forefront of electrification, to improve its manufacturing efficiency and maintain its high return on r&d and capex. Demand vs ICE? Quality of product experience, total cost of ownership and regulatory nudges are tipping that battle only one way.

Half a trillion to trillion dollar market cap? Well I don’t think you get there from selling cars alone and you instead need to take a view on things that either don’t exist yet but are either under active R&D or could conceivably be something where Tesla might have an edge.

You get there from some combination of autonomy (combined with Tesla App Store), widescale disruption to utility sector (starting by forcing the extinction of peaker plants), a 21st century logistics solution (e.g. a point to point service combining semi project with visual neural network enabled robots at loading/discharge), electrified yellow goods and energy storage for mining industry etc...

To take autonomy, there is actually no reason to suppose autonomy will be a zero margin business offered by many. What’s Google’s market share of search? And what’s their associated revenue from it? Barriers to entry for autonomy are arguably as high. Doesn’t mean Tesla will be the winner but their lead in data is highly promising. Exclude autonomy and the other moonshots and $50bn remains a substantial undervaluation. Which allows me to think of autonomy as a free lottery ticket (but with pretty reasonable odds).

 

[wnorris]

@DaveT I think Tesla has never been better positioned in its history.

Performance in Q3 and Q4 was superb in my opinion and as we learn more about the competition's EV offerings, it is clear to me that Tesla will not have meaningful competition for its most important cash generating products for years to come.

Since you are focusing on the long-term let me throw out what I think are reasonable targets for 2023 (4-5 years), based on company guidance where available.

700K Model 3 @$45K $31.5B
1M Model Y @$45K $45B
300K pickup @$50K $15B
100K S/X @$100K $10B
100K Semi @$165K $16.5B
100K solar roof @$40K $4B
5K Roadster at $225K $1.1B
Storage $8B
Service and Other $6B

Total: $137.1B

After 2023, as @dennis suggests, Tesla can branch out to produce a much broader variety of vehicles, and in some cases (especially Semi, pickup, storage and solar roof) continue to expand on products in the list above.

Good post, but your unit numbers are at the top end and would require Tesla to execute perfectly and do so in a good economy. As you noted your ASP is conservative, why not do the same with the unit numbers. Tesla will do well, but will certainly hit some road bumps along the way. I would think 70-80% of those numbers would be a safer estimate.

 

[kbM3]

Here’s some more encouragement.

For those who think Tesla’s competitive advantage is and will be manufacturing, let’s take a look at this.

Model 3 was supposed to be the beginning of Tesla’s ambitious alien dreadnought plans.

And look at how it’s panned out. It was a miserable failure, almost ruining the company.

Tesla’s manufacturing has been a competitive disadvantage (just look at Model X falcon door fiasco and Model 3 ramp fiasco).

And now we are to believe that somehow Tesla will become the best manufacturer in the world?

Enough of hopes and dreams. Let’s base things off of track record, and if we do so I don’t know if really we can claim manufacturing a competitive advantage.

Sure, maybe Tesla changes and gets their act together and does become the best manufacturer in the world. But that’s far from guaranteed.

And just looking at their track record, that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome. Again, I'm not saying it won't happen. I sure hope it does. But it's hope.

Just keeping it real.

I love your critical takes. It is certainly spawning great discussions. All too often the bulls on this forum will put the best light on any negative news (of which we had plenty in 2018).

Model 3 was production was apparently over-automated and a huge mistake. However, there were learning aspects and certain portions of the automation that apparently did go very well. It sounds like pack production is one of those that is now working even better than originally planned, even though it was a complete fiasco to start.

Elon’s strong belief is that if the company is not failing, then they’re not innovating quickly enough. So although the failures were much worse than any of us would have projected, they’ve come out the other side with some great learnings, and I’m guessing manufacturing breakthroughs in lots of areas we don’t even know about.

The toughest part for all of us is how much to trust Elon. Undoubtedly he is way over-optimistic on timelines. He’s also subject to hype. E.g. in the last call he said Tesla already basically has full autonomy on the interstate. This is far from the case. It does not even have level 3 capability in a single lane (because of road hazard classification capability if nothing else).

But even though Elon over-promises and over-hypes, his vision and engineering genius is unrivaled. The tech giants Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon were all built by extremely brilliant men, but I don’t think any of them really hold a candle to Elon. Look at what he’s accomplished with Space-X and Tesla thus far. Think about the strategic vision involved in building the Gigafactory. Wright’s law says that battery cost’s will decline roughly by 50% with every order of magnitude of growth. Now look at Tesla’s decision to build the Semi and Tesla energy as a way to massively generate demand growth for battery production in light of Wright’s law. Look at how brilliant was the decision to build the Semi using Model 3 motors and other aspects.

Elon says that Model Y will be a manufacturing breakthrough. I can understand your doubt in light of what happened with Model 3. But I would bet everything (in fact I am), that it will have a better manufacturing process than any other vehicle.

 

[EinSV]

Good post, but your unit numbers are at the top end and would require Tesla to execute perfectly and do so in a good economy. As you noted your ASP is conservative, why not do the same with the unit numbers. Tesla will do well, but will certainly hit some road bumps along the way. I would think 70-80% of those numbers would be a safer estimate.

It's a bit of a crapshoot but IMO the numbers are reasonable:

• The pickup could be much higher than 300K by 2023 but we don't know anything about the product and have no guidance so kept that on the low-ish side.
  
• Tesla hinted on the recent call that it might expand Model S/X production in the future and in 4-5 years it would not surprise me if it exceeded 100K, possibly as high as 150K.
  
• Tesla guided 700-800K Model 3 except in recession. Recessions tend to be short term, so the lower end of the range for a "normal" economy (700K) seemed reasonable.
  
• Tesla estimated Model Y at 50% higher than 3 and possibly as much as double. My 1M estimate is ambitious but below 50% higher than 700K.
  
• Storage could be substantially higher than my estimate.
  
• Also, I have no provision for products that Tesla has not already announced
  • all but one of the products on the roadmap are scheduled to go into production by 2020 (pickup may be an exception).
  • I seriously doubt Tesla's 2023 lineup won't have a new product or two.
• I didn't include any provision for Tesla Network, which could add substantial revenue and even more value.

$137B in 2023 seems doable, especially given where I think Tesla is heading for fast and efficient GF builds. Could end up on the low side if history is any guide -- less than 50% annual growth v. 82%/75%/75%/60% for the past 1/2/3/5 years. But there is definitely a fair amount of guesswork involved and reasonable minds can differ.

 

[Brando]

I'd doubt that there are +300,000 cars valued over $100,000 sold world wide. And in a down year?
Can anyone find that number of +$100,000 cars??

So I, personally, can't see how Tesla could sell that many. S/X at 100,000 seems good enough to me. Especially as Model S/X will last longer and even used be cheaper to operate?? continuous improvement could well see limits to production move up slightly.

side note: top three auto makers each have ~10% to 13% of the vehicle world wide market EACH. (100M or 80M world wide)
Nissan/Renault, Toyota, VW

How many makers of +$100,000 cars ?? Mercedes S Class used to dominate and now it seems Model S getting close.
(How much of Mercedes S Class are embassy/government purchases ??)
{I didn't find actual numbers for +$100,000 cars, perhaps someone can show us?}

Luxury report see todays Autoline daily 2524
youtu.be/YwzHxFmJTp0

 

[Matias]

If Tesla production is flat (per your earlier post), then there is no R&D nor capital expansion.

Even maintaining flat sales requires R&D and capex. You can't sell the same models forever and expect sales to remain flat.

 

[oneday]

Since you are focusing on the long-term let me throw out what I think are reasonable targets for 2023 (4-5 years), based on company guidance where available.

700K Model 3 @$45K $31.5B
1M Model Y @$45K $45B
300K pickup @$50K $15B
100K S/X @$100K $10B
100K Semi @$165K $16.5B
100K solar roof @$40K $4B
5K Roadster at $225K $1.1B
Storage $8B
Service and Other $6B

Total: $137.1B

[QUOTE="wnorris, post: 3377299, member: 58561"]Good post, but your unit numbers are at the top end and would require Tesla to execute perfectly and do so in a good economy. As you noted your ASP is conservative, why not do the same with the unit numbers. Tesla will do well, but will certainly hit some road bumps along the way. I would think 70-80% of those numbers would be a safer estimate.[/QUOTE]

EinSV, great post! If you allot that they hit 72.9% of your projected targets that would be a nice round $100 billion.

 

[wdolson]

I actually look at their track record and see something different. They are doing something no other company has done. There have been mistakes along the way. But the pace of innovation is what is so amazing. If Usain Bolt is in a race with a granny in a walker, I’ll put my money on Usain Bolt every time, even if the granny has a big head start. No other car company has scaled faster.

No car company has scaled like that fast in recent years, but Ford went from founding in 1903 to producing more Model Ts than the rest of the car industry combined in 1914. Tesla was founded in 2003 and they didn't really mass produce a car until 2018. Considering the headwinds any new car start up is facing vs the early 20th century, Tesla's accomplishment is probably more profound that Ford's.

@DaveT I feel that you have overlooked a couple of key factors in Model S's declining demand that resulted in a number of logical leaps for other models that aren't warranted.

1) Take a look at carsalesbase.com for any luxury model's demand over a number of years, such as S Class or 7 Series. You will notice a distinct pattern where after a new generation of the product is introduced every 5-6 years there is a jump in demand for 18-24 months followed by a gradual decay for the next 3-4 years until the subsequent generation is introduced. Sometimes there is a mid-cycle smaller bump when a mild facelifted version is introduced but not always.

Model S is almost 7 years old. There is been one minor facelift. It is amazing to me that Tesla has been able to maintain almost flat demand even though a new generation of Model S is clearly needed. This is further reinforced by the number of areas where the Model 3 is superior to the more expensive Model S such as interior convenience features and motor efficiency.

This is probably because while the Model S is priced like a European luxury car, it sells to a completely different market. Typical luxury car buyers often buy to impress others and they want the latest and greatest. A significant number of Model S buyers bought because of the tech not to impress. The tech in the Model S is still way ahead of many other makers' cars, even 6 years later.

 

[mongo]

Even maintaining flat sales requires R&D and capex. You can't sell the same models forever and expect sales to remain flat.

It wasn't a forever timeline, only 2029. S is 3 years from being 10, Y/Pickup/semi/roadster are 1-2 years from volume production, so stopping after those on the R&D side and only having CapEx until the 1.25million of manufacturing capacity is built seems reasonable under the previous suppositions.

Due to internal cognitive dissonance, I can't postulate a world where Tesla still has R&D/ capEx in 2029, but no net growth....

 

[GaryW]

I'd doubt that there are +300,000 cars valued over $100,000 sold world wide. And in a down year?
Can anyone find that number of +$100,000 cars??

So I, personally, can't see how Tesla could sell that many. S/X at 100,000 seems good enough to me. Especially as Model S/X will last longer and even used be cheaper to operate?? continuous improvement could well see limits to production move up slightly.

side note: top three auto makers each have ~10% to 13% of the vehicle world wide market EACH. (100M or 80M world wide)
Nissan/Renault, Toyota, VW

How many makers of +$100,000 cars ?? Mercedes S Class used to dominate and now it seems Model S getting close.
(How much of Mercedes S Class are embassy/government purchases ??)
{I didn't find actual numbers for +$100,000 cars, perhaps someone can show us?}

Luxury report see todays Autoline daily 2524
youtu.be/YwzHxFmJTp0

I love your thoughtful, reasoned conclusions. I agree with everything you say.

I also wonder, though. I bought a model S 100D, a $100K car. I had never spent $30K on a car before. How many lunatics like me do we need to put a dent in reasonable conclusions?

Would I do it again? Right now, no. I would buy my girlfriends model 3. But when the roadster comes out, ....

Thanks again for your post.

 

[Ocelot]

Firstly, want to thank DaveT for engaging this discussion. I dare to say if someone posted the same thing , and was new to this forum, I do not think it would generate any discussion, but rather a 'look back, this has been discussed before, newbie' type of response.

As someone all-in, I am worried over Tesla. Yes they make the best electric drive car today. But it is my firm belief all the 'vapourware' is coming to fruition, and coming quickly. How many models will Tesla have when BMW has 12 fully electric cars planned, and 25 hybrids planned by 2022? Volvo plans for all electric drivetrains by 2025. Will the significant advantage these companies have in manufacturing allow them to scale extremely quickly? Will their fan base stick with them? Do people want no buttons? Even if Tesla makes the best electric car its not like everybody drives the best car.Backin 2010 Elon noted probably a new model per year, post model 3. Does anyone see that happening ? Where is the solar roof? Where is the refresh of the x/s?

Like most here I have read and re-read the demand arguments for years. Alas though, especially as of today, I think you have to go with the simplest explanation. If demand was through the roof, you do not cut a price. It is pretty straight forward, and to myself only gets complex when people start adding in 'academic-only' arguments for why this is a good thing.

 

[Buckminster]

Firstly, want to thank DaveT for engaging this discussion. I dare to say if someone posted the same thing , and was new to this forum, I do not think it would generate any discussion, but rather a 'look back, this has been discussed before, newbie' type of response.

As someone all-in, I am worried over Tesla. Yes they make the best electric drive car today. But it is my firm belief all the 'vapourware' is coming to fruition, and coming quickly. How many models will Tesla have when BMW has 12 fully electric cars planned, and 25 hybrids planned by 2022? Volvo plans for all electric drivetrains by 2025. Will the significant advantage these companies have in manufacturing allow them to scale extremely quickly? Will their fan base stick with them? Do people want no buttons? Even if Tesla makes the best electric car its not like everybody drives the best car.Backin 2010 Elon noted probably a new model per year, post model 3. Does anyone see that happening ? Where is the solar roof? Where is the refresh of the x/s?

Like most here I have read and re-read the demand arguments for years. Alas though, especially as of today, I think you have to go with the simplest explanation. If demand was through the roof, you do not cut a price. It is pretty straight forward, and to myself only gets complex when people start adding in 'academic-only' arguments for why this is a good thing.

Worry not Sir Lancelot. M3 is just getting started. Not available in UK yet is one of a hundred valid data points.