AWD Test Mule

[WarpedOne]

If I had to bet, I'd bet on newer chemistry.
There is that average 7% annual battery improvement that looks small but in three years S100 should be as hard to do as S85 was.

Where did do you find those predictions/rumors?

 

[widodh]

If I had to bet, I'd bet on newer chemistry.
There is that average 7% annual battery improvement that looks small but in three years S100 should be as hard to do as S85 was.

Where did do you find those predictions/rumors?

A couple of topics on this forum as well as Google:
* Is a 110kWh battery possible today?
* Probability of new battery tech?
* panasonic 4000mah 18650 - Google zoeken

Nothing about the discharge rate though, so I'm not sure if it's suitable to deliver the power for the two engines required for a <3 sec AWD Model S.

 

[scaesare]

The battery box could be extended into the trunk (skip the foodwell in the trunk) I guess this would be the P100 option, no need to have a new batteri chemistry. With a P100 you would solve the isue about battery limit power output. The 3,3 sec model s will soon be revealet. My guess real production will start Q3 and delivery late 2014.

I assume you actually meant "footwell" in the trunk?

If so, that's behind the drive unit (and axles), so I doubt the existing battery box could "extend" there. It wold likely have to be a separate battery in order to make that work, but I tend to doubt they would go this direction.

 

[J1mbo]

Personally, I doubt that they will move to a new chemistry until it has been proven elsewhere. More likely to change the pack to make it lighter / more efficient (nearly 5000 cylindrical cells, individually wrapped and packed into 16 (?) separately fluid cooled units, there must be some room for improvement there). AFAIK the Giga-factory announcement didn't mention cell format?

 

[JRP3]

Tesla is not going to increase the physical size of the pack, that would require new crash testing, plus expose the pack to more potential damage in a crash if were outside of the wheel base. I also don't think Tesla will introduce an AWD S before the X is out since that would certainly cannibalize some X sales. As to cell capacity, there is speculation that Tesla is already using a 3.4ah cell since 3.1ah's doesn't work with the assumed 7104 cells in the 85.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@JRP3

IMO no risk of Model X cannibalization. To mention an example I know persons that are waiting for the AWD Model S and that have also reserved the Model X as second family car.

 

[JRP3]

Sure, some will, but others will not. You might be correct though, it could be a wash overall. Still don't think it will happen before the X comes out, it would steal some of the thunder from the X launch.

 

[AnOutsider]

I'm on the side that it would cannibalize. Some folks may just want awd and would be fine "settling" for an S if it meant getting in a tesla a year earlier.

 

[wycolo]

The AWD motor/diff units will have to be downsized to save weight and also (combined) to ~equal the power draw of the P85. So same batt & electronics as an MS P85 to move the slightly heavier body/expected payload of the MX.
--

 

[abasile]

I'm on the side that it would cannibalize. Some folks may just want awd and would be fine "settling" for an S if it meant getting in a tesla a year earlier.

Yep. AWD is a key feature that we're waiting for. I'd like an X for the extra space for our family and for taking trips, but might "settle" for an S for greater range and lower cost.

 

[TylerCA]

I personally would consider the Model X and keeping the S. They are, in my eyes, very different cars with different purposes.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

… I also don't think Tesla will introduce an AWD S before the X is out since that would certainly cannibalize some X sales. …

Since Elon and Tesla are about reducing environmental impact it’s my understanding they’ll absolutely welcome and *love* a 4WD MS cannibalizing the X. The more the better. And given the virtual ‘obsession’ in the US with full size SUV’s I don’t think there’s any risk at all for a shortage of X shoppers. It seems like they’re going to sell like cup cakes no matter what.

 

[AlMc]

Prediction: AWD will first be available in Q2 in a highly specialized (beyond P85+) Model S version, and offered as a regular option late Q4, along with Model X introduction.

Gentlemen, get your wallets ready.

I have learned from being a member of this forum for the last 9 months to never be on the opposite side of a Bonnie prediction :wink:

While I do not know about the timing of a 'super AWD S' or a 'regular AWD S' introduction. I do believe we will see an AWD S produced and delivered before the X. My wife does not like the 'look' of the X with the Falcon wings . So, I will be one of those giving up my sigX position for an AWD S if it comes out first. The only way I get my choice (the X) is if it comes out first. (****disclaimer: I rarely win when I am on the other side of a prediction with my wife as well****)

 

[AnOutsider]

Since Elon and Tesla are about reducing environmental impact it’s my understanding they’ll absolutely welcome and *love* a 4WD MS cannibalizing the X. The more the better. And given the virtual ‘obsession’ in the US with full size SUV’s I don’t think there’s any risk at all for a shortage of X shoppers. It seems like they’re going to sell like cup cakes no matter what.

I'd have to disagree there. Sure, from an idealistic standpoint, the more electric cars the better! It's great PR too. From a BUSINESS standpoint however, I can't imagine they'd be thrilled to spend the R&D time and money on the X and end up selling half or a third of what they planned to -- even if S sales go up.

 

[JRP3]

I doubt there is going to be a large difference in efficiency between the two, in fact, if there is, the X is going to have rather poor range. Further, I'd say the greater benefit to the environment will be replacing ICE SUV's with the X, so from that stand point selling more X's is better than selling more S's.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I'd have to disagree there. Sure, from an idealistic standpoint, the more electric cars the better! It's great PR too. From a BUSINESS standpoint however, I can't imagine they'd be thrilled to spend the R&D time and money on the X and end up selling half or a third of what they planned to -- even if S sales go up.

But from that business standpoint, if they sell an S instead of an X, will that really matter? And as I understand it Elon isn’t about maximizing profit.

And again; I don’t think there’s any risk at all for a shortage of X shoppers.

I doubt there is going to be a large difference in efficiency between the two, in fact, if there is, the X is going to have rather poor range. Further, I'd say the greater benefit to the environment will be replacing ICE SUV's with the X, so from that stand point selling more X's is better than selling more S's.

There are less raw materials in an S compared to an X. And replacing an ICE SUV with an S (if possible) seems better than replacing it with an X.

 

[lolachampcar]

Well you know that second motor is going to give you mad crazy power. Add that to the P85+ and it will be insane.

Well, Jerome would not say word one about a P++. His only comment was that Elon makes all announcements.... So, I emailed Elon and asked to place a deposit on a P++ as I just can not pass up some of Bonnie's insanity.

 

[JRP3]

There are less raw materials in an S compared to an X.

The X is a taller S with an extra, smaller, motor. I'd bet the materials difference is less than 5%.

 

[AlMc]

Well, Jerome would not say word one about a P++. His only comment was that Elon makes all announcements.... So, I emailed Elon and asked to place a deposit on a P++ as I just can not pass up some of Bonnie's insanity.

So, anyone have predictions on cost of the what we call the 'super AWD P++ S' ?? If I configure a well equipped P+ now on the TM website the cost (before any tax incentives) is in the low $120K range. I believe TM/Elon stated AWD would probably add $5K to price. Is this a car being produced to help German (Autoban) sales as Elon indicated that in Europe, TM was concentrating on Germany??

 

[AnOutsider]

But from that business standpoint, if they sell an S instead of an X, will that really matter? And as I understand it Elon isn’t about maximizing profit.

Yes I think it matters. Elon might not care, but investors would. Not only that, the company isn't sitting pretty either; they can't afford to waste money in R&D on a product that misses sales marks and doesn't recoup the investment.

No matter how idealistic leadership may (at least appear to) be, it's still a business. They can get away with the whole "we won't make a profit on service" thing because #1 they're not losing money and #2 it's building customer loyalty, which brings in more sales (either repeat or word of mouth).

I agree that this isn't even likely to be an issue however, as I think the market is there for both -- I just don't think they'd be "OK" with S sales doubling and X sales tanking.