Battery Swapping Event - Live Updates

[deonb]

I've transcribed the Q/A session with the reporters over here:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...uncement-discussion/page9?p=368519#post368519

Post #88 on page 9 of that thread

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

That may well be it. Will be interesting to see if/how they try to price in wear on the battery - i.e. both number of charge cycles and well as perhaps aggressive driving v.s. careful driving, amount of range charging etc... Or does the whole concept of babying your battery now become obsolete?

In think the whole "babying the battery" is 100% wishful thinking, right from the start. The battery management system (BMS) autonomously keeps track of and, well, manages the battery as perfectly as technologically possible. We can well assume that the BMS and the car always keeps the battery within a usage profile that avoids damage. The belief that the user can influence the lifetime of a battery seems amusing to me.

 

[Johan]

In think the whole "babying the battery" is 100% wishful thinking, right from the start. The battery management system (BMS) autonomously keeps track of and, well, manages the battery as perfectly as technologically possible. We can well assume that the BMS and the car always keeps the battery within a usage profile that avoids damage. The belief that the user can influence the lifetime of a battery seems amusing to me.

Why then did they implement the % slider in the last firmware, or have the "standard" and "range" modes in the first place?

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

That's the best way to do it for sure. Number of miles, cycles, etc. I'm just saying that it would be easy if they kept it simple instead of having a complicated equation. I can already see the "I got charged $5000 for my battery swap ((((" posts because they couldn't calculate it beforehand.

The most reasonable approach would IMHO be to also display the expected battery exchange cost next to the super charger icon, in case you want to keep a battery after swapping.

Which raises another question: Why in the hell do they make it so complicated? Shouldn't the average battery exchange cost be ZERO, because statistically you'd get a newer and older battery equally if you swap all the time? Doesn't this just produce basically unnecessary money transactions?

 

[deonb]

The most reasonable approach would IMHO be to also display the expected battery exchange cost next to the super charger icon, in case you want to keep a battery after swapping.

Which raises another question: Why in the hell do they make it so complicated? Shouldn't the average battery exchange cost be ZERO, because statistically you'd get a newer and older battery equally if you swap all the time? Doesn't this just produce basically unnecessary money transactions?

You answered your own question:
"if you swap all the time"

There will be nothing preventing someone that never does any exchange from just going 8 years down the line and swap his battery a few times in a row until he gets a brand new one. Then be off never to be seen from again, until another 8 years later.

A battery rental/lease model is needed to solve this.

 

[TD1]

You answered your own question:
"if you swap all the time"

There will be nothing preventing someone that never does any exchange from just going 8 years down the line and swap his battery a few times in a row until he gets a brand new one. Then be off never to be seen from again, until another 8 years later.

A battery rental/lease model is needed to solve this.

As Elon said they store about 50 Batteries, so that should allow to always have a battery in stock that is quite similar to the old one and that battery should be swapped if someone pulls up with an old battery.
ONLY
If the System doesnt have any equal batteries in storage or the owners battery is just super old/used up that system of "billing for the difference" should be used.

That way it would be possible to allow 98% of the User to swap batteries without having to think about returning it or other super high fees.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

So, here's my question/concern: Let's say you swap your battery for a slightly newer one, and then a week later you come back to swap back for your original battery only to find that someone else has already swapped for it. Is Tesla going to require the other person to bring your original battery back to the swapping station for you, or are you just stuck paying the fee?

The $64000 question is: How do you as simple customer identify your battery pack. Do you doodle funny pictures on it, or what can you do. I bet the battery com is encrypted to avoid easy tampering with the pack. So, how do you identify your original pack? My guess: you can't. It's basically make-believe. What do you guys think about this issue?

 

[deonb]

As Elon said they store about 50 Batteries, so that should allow to always have a battery in stock that is quite similar to the old one and that battery should be swapped if someone pulls up with an old battery.
ONLY
If the System doesnt have any equal batteries in storage or the owners battery is just super old/used up that system of "billing for the difference" should be used.

That way it would be possible to allow 98% of the User to swap batteries without having to think about returning it or other super high fees.

Well, yeah, that's actually the way it will work.

Not sure if you've seen this part?

Q: [Something like: the new pack you get may not be much newer than the one you have]
Elon: That's right, yes exactly. If you got a pack which is essentially the same as the one you dropped off, you don't need to drop it off again.


The question is if that will be true for an asymmetric trip as well? Drop your pack off at location A, and pick up similar pack at location B without dropping it off again. But my bet is it will.

 

[TD1]

would be interesting to know if that will be totally random, or If I can check prior to the arrival to the swapping station if it has a pack in their system that matches mine.
I would only use the swapping if I don't have to worry about getting my original pack back.

 

[deonb]

would be interesting to know if that will be totally random, or If I can check prior to the arrival to the swapping station if it has a pack in their system that matches mine.
I would only use the swapping if I don't have to worry about getting my original pack back.

I think the batteries would have to be in a random access storage (since they can arrive with different SOT), and not some kind of FIFO queue. In that case I can see Tesla giving you an option when you pull up to select which pack you want. With a big default button for "Similar to mine" that you would generally use.

But some people will be swapping specifically because you have a 8 year pack and wanting to exchange it for a new pack, and you want to pay the upcharge. In such a case you can't expect the person to just keep swapping until he has the one he wants.

 

[dmetcalf]

Sort of...you can get there, but you can't necessarily make it back to the SC without charging at your destination, which consumes time. If I'm driving to Dallas for 4 hours of meetings and I can't charge during the meetings, that means sitting at a J1772 charger for 2-3 hours after my meeting and before a 3 1/2 hour drive PLUS an hour at the SC. Massive headache, not even worth using the Tesla (better to rent an ICE). With this option, work is already reimbursing me > $120 for the mileage anyway, so this would be great!

This is my typical situation too. 400 mi round trips to Miami or Georgia make for a long day anyway. Time savings and a fresher battery would be great,especially if there are higher capacities than 85 in the future. I'd do this for the few (10x per year) that I need it. I suspect (hope) Miami would be early on the list for a Super Swapper with all the interest and orders in S FL. Way to give us "optionality" Tesla.

Also think about how this might be used in the future for Formula E racing (which is coming to Miami and LA next year)Electric Racing News - FIA Formula E . I hope Tesla forms a team and wins with fast pit stops ; ).

 

[qwk]

The $64000 question is: How do you as simple customer identify your battery pack. Do you doodle funny pictures on it, or what can you do. I bet the battery com is encrypted to avoid easy tampering with the pack. So, how do you identify your original pack? My guess: you can't. It's basically make-believe. What do you guys think about this issue?

Non-issue. There is a barcode with a serial number on the front passenger side of the battery.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

It's all fine and dandy then .

 

[jomo25]

It's all fine and dandy then .

No offense, but you thought that perhaps they did all the pre-design/pre-planning to build this into every car manufactured ahead of even announcing it as a capability, but expected them to miss a simple detail like being able to distinguish individual batteries from each other? I guess I give them more credit than that.

 

[Doug_G]

Mod note - I've merged together several threads related to the event as reported in-progress (twitter etc.) or posted just afterwards. Things were a little bit outta control! (That's what I get for being out of town...)

 

[jomo25]

The real takeaway for me is that prior to this demonstration, no one envisioned the possibility of sub 30 minute fill ups of a 230+ mile battery. Now, its very possible we’ll see sub-3 minute full recharges by the end of the year.

This demo just showed how Tesla improved the refill time of a 230+ mile battery by an order of magnitude. Second time they’ve done so in under a year.

So they went from L2 charging -> Supercharging -> Battery swap

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

No offense, but you thought that perhaps they did all the pre-design/pre-planning to build this into every car manufactured ahead of even announcing it as a capability, but expected them to miss a simple detail like being able to distinguish individual batteries from each other? I guess I give them more credit than that.

Barcode is so yesterday .

 

[smorgasbord]

I believe we haven't yet adsorbed all the implications of rapid and available battery swapping. Here are some thoughts:

1) 40KWH purchasers must be giddy right now. They saved $20K, but for $60 can get an 85KWH pack to use on road trips. If Tesla really killed the 40KWH pack option because of demand, they should re-introduce it. It'll take some time for swap stations to appear, but when they do the smaller battery options will sell more.

2) Pricing a used Model S will be pretty simple, at least once the pricing for permanent swaps is announced. If I were going to sell a Model S, I'd include the cost of swapping to the battery size/condition that the new owner wanted. The new owner doesn't have to worry how well I treated the pack anymore. A used EV with a new pack will perform pretty much like new, unlike ICE cars.

3) The "Fast or Free" tagline really sticks it to the defenders of the gasoline model. Anyone who complains about the cost of battery swapping is tacitly admitting that the cost of refueling a gas car is too high.

4) The getting your old pack back on the return trip is great (and something I suggested months ago). So, if you're the kind of person that takes care of their pack, no worries - you can continue to reap the range benefits as your pack ages by taking better care of it.

5) I haven't seen anyone mention this, but Model X has the same chassis design and dimensions. My guess is that Model X packs are swappable into Model S vehicles. So, when Model X comes with a 120KWH pack, you should be able to put that into your Model S. Now, get a real 300 mile range!


Three things remain to be seen:
A) Whether putting in larger packs increases acceleration. Yeah, an 85KWH pack won't turn your 40KWH vehicle into a perf plus, but I would expect some bump. And will the bigger Model X packs I speculate about turn your Perf Plus into a sub 4 second rocket?

B) Perf and Perf Plus owners are probably restricted to 85KWH packs - can't swap in a smaller pack (not that you'd want to).

C) Pricing of permanent swaps. This affects the whole used car market and upgrade market. Pricing too high and the advantages of swapping except for road trips disappear.


EDIT: BTW, it's interesting to watch this battery swap video from Better Place back in 2009: Battery switch technology demo - YouTube

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I believe we haven't yet adsorbed all the implications of rapid and available battery swapping. Here are some thoughts:

Well, I was wondering why that "faster and more convenient than gas" post-it was stuck to me..

1) 40KWH purchasers must be giddy right now. They saved $20K, but for $60 can get an 85KWH pack to use on road trips. If Tesla really killed the 40KWH pack option because of demand, they should re-introduce it. It'll take some time for swap stations to appear, but when they do the smaller battery options will sell more.

Well, I'm sure Tesla will make them pay for the delay.

3) The "Fast or Free" tagline really sticks it to the defenders of the gasoline model. Anyone who complains about the cost of battery swapping is tacitly admitting that the cost of gas is high.

Right up there with "tsunami of hurt". Now, I do hope that they can come up with a way of keeping the swap cost obviously cheaper than gas. $10 may sound crazy low, but I think that should be the aim. I really think he's been thinking swap all along because the logistics of chargig don't work at volume. The optionality covers everything and everybody.

Three things remain to be seen:
A) Whether putting in larger packs increases acceleration. Yeah, an 85KWH pack won't turn your 40KWH vehicle into a perf plus, but I would expect some bump. And will the bigger Model X packs I speculate about turn your Perf Plus into a sub 4 second rocket?

B) Perf and Perf Plus owners are probably restricted to 85KWH packs - can't swap in a smaller pack (not that you'd want to).

C) Pricing of permanent swaps. This affects the whole used car market and upgrade market. Pricing too high and the advantages of swapping except for road trips disappear.

Acceleration would likely be limited by the inverter and other components.

Tesla knows the age and capacity of the pack so can value accordingly. Pack manufacture is automated and xan easily increase. As long as they have a model in which they can use used packs they'll be able to price reasonably, but with a "deferral" penalty for increasing your pack size.

 

[smorgasbord]

Now, I do hope that they can come up with a way of keeping the swap cost obviously cheaper than gas. $10 may sound crazy low, but I think that should be the aim. I really think he's been thinking swap all along because the logistics of chargig don't work at volume.

I disagree.

If you listen to Musk, he's not saying this is the wave of the future, he's saying this will remove an argument. Big difference. I don't think we'll ever see swapping get as cheap as you want. With EVs you charge at home for cheap, or you super charge on the road for free, or you swap at an equivalent gas refill cost.

The logistics of swapping are harder than charging. All sorts of real-world issues can arise in swapping packs using bolts. Are the bolts replaced each time or at least periodically? What if something is misaligned? What if your 12 volt battery is on the weak side and fails during the swap? What if your car had scraped bottom and the screw heads were damaged?