BC EV rebate to run out of money soon?

[bwalter]

Here's a quick prediction of how long the fund has until it needs topped up based on my snapshots of the counter on the page. This is messy since I didn't record time of day on each fund check, but it gives a sense:

May 4. $4,858,128
May 5. $4,323,128 - $626,000 in 1 day
May 7. $3,668,128 - $655,000 in 2 days
May 9. $2,783,128 - $885,000 in 2 days

There's wild variation from 327K to 626K in a day, but I'd guess at 7 days left before it needs topped up.
With the projected 42M top-up, and an average rate of about $400K per day, this funding would last for about 100 days more, taking us to August. That assumes there won't be a tail off of demand, though I think that is very possible.

Yes, it will probably drop off, given there was pent up demand between the time the Federal program was announced and implemented. Still, EV sales are clearly accelerating rapidly. The program started in Nov 2011 and at this rate, it looks like the rebates in 2019 will exceed the previous years 7 years combined.

 

[AdamMacDon]

Here's a quick prediction of how long the fund has until it needs topped up based on my snapshots of the counter on the page. This is messy since I didn't record time of day on each fund check, but it gives a sense:

May 4. $4,858,128
May 5. $4,323,128 - $626,000 in 1 day
May 7. $3,668,128 - $655,000 in 2 days
May 9. $2,783,128 - $885,000 in 2 days

There's wild variation from 327K to 626K in a day, but I'd guess at 7 days left before it needs topped up.
With the projected 42M top-up, and an average rate of about $400K per day, this funding would last for about 100 days more, taking us to August. That assumes there won't be a tail off of demand, though I think that is very possible.

Some more points of interest, on May 1st, the fund was almost at 6 million. Also I called the Tesla financing department today to pick their brain about it. I actually got a really helpful lady named Julia and she basically said that larger car dealerships tend to "batch" their EV rebates together and send them off to the CEV for BC program after the end of the month. As anyone who's worked at a dealership knows, month end is the most hectic time, with everyone rushing around trying to make targets and close deals. So she said during the first week or so of the month, the fund tends to drop more then it will the rest of the month. With the federal rebate also dropping May 1st, there was of course a larger than usual depletion of the reserves.

 

[bwalter]

Big movement from funds reserved to funds dispersed today. Funds available is down to just over $2.2 million.

 

[BEPA400]

I got my first graph dates wrong.. added info from above and got the graph below.. Looks like demand roughly $400,000/day since May 1. The drop for today is just because it doesn't include all of today yet.

There is a budget announcement this afternoon around 4pm, so I have my fingers crossed that's announcing the funds being topped up! We shall see...

 

[Kira]

A friend who ordered a Model 3 last week said that Tesla Vancouver informed her they'd hit 680 in five days of sales. I believe that was for May 1-5. Assuming much of that would be Model 3.

 

[Kevinfish]

I got my first graph dates wrong.. added info from above and got the graph below.. Looks like demand roughly $400,000/day since May 1. The drop for today is just because it doesn't include all of today yet.

There is a budget announcement this afternoon around 4pm, so I have my fingers crossed that's announcing the funds being topped up! We shall see...


View attachment 407330

What's the budget announcement you are referring to?

 

[AdamMacDon]

A friend who ordered a Model 3 last week said that Tesla Vancouver informed her they'd hit 680 in five days of sales. I believe that was for May 1-5. Assuming much of that would be Model 3.

Sounds about what I was told, the sales guy said over 100 MODEL 3's a day, I couldn't believe it. Nevermind the other models, which admittedly don't have the same volume, but damn. Working at Mercedes a crazy MONTH was about 240 cars.

 

[Funkmobile]

Sounds about what I was told, the sales guy said over 100 MODEL 3's a day, I couldn't believe it. Nevermind the other models, which admittedly don't have the same volume, but damn. Working at Mercedes a crazy MONTH was about 240 cars.

It would not be 100 Model 3's per day. The most they could deliver per day is probably around 30-40 given the size of the Powell location.

 

[Werdna]

It would not be 100 Model 3's per day. The most they could deliver per day is probably around 30-40 given the size of the Powell location.

Those are orders, not deliveries.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Those are orders, not deliveries.

Yah. Our guy in Vancouver said 800 orders last week. Averaging around 600 to 700 per week. That is 10 percent of Tesla production...in one city.

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

Yah. Our guy in Vancouver said 800 orders last week. Averaging around 600 to 700 per week. That is 10 percent of Tesla production...in one city.

$1.70+ / L is a huge driver of sales plus 2x incentives. It's a no brainer to abandon ICEV and get the best sedan in the market.

 

[BEPA400]

What's the budget announcement you are referring to?

I shouldn’t have called it a budget announcement.. on the phone person from Tesla told me there was going to be an announcement by either the government or yesterday at 4pm, but I haven’t found (or had time to look hard) for such announcement yet.

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

If I lived in Vancouver BC for the past year o.0 (Gasoline savings = ~4k CAD!) Model 3 kW Log

 

[Werdna]

I shouldn’t have called it a budget announcement.. on the phone person from Tesla told me there was going to be an announcement by either the government or yesterday at 4pm, but I haven’t found (or had time to look hard) for such announcement yet.

There was an electric vehicle event at the legislature yesterday (Clean Energy Vehicle Day) but no announcements I could see.

 

[Funkmobile]

If I lived in Vancouver BC for the past year o.0 (Gasoline savings = ~4k CAD!) Model 3 kW Log

View attachment 407605

Compared to if you drove a Civic....

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

Compared to if you drove a Civic....

Lol, which L/km would you like me to plug into my table ?

 

[Funkmobile]

Lol, which L/km would you like me to plug into my table ?

Good question. It's very dependent on how you drive and where you drive. I suggest you add to your data label to indicate what car is for which rate of fuel consumption as It would give more context to the person reading the graph. To me, 9.4L/100km is easily achievable with a Civic with mostly city driving.

 

[BEPA400]

$1.70+ / L is a huge driver of sales plus 2x incentives. It's a no brainer to abandon ICEV and get the best sedan in the market.

My leaf sold on Craigslist last night within 7 hours of posting it. For $500 less than I paid for it 2.5 years and 25,000km ago!! I think people are finally realizing an EV is a practical solution. (Even a shorter range leaf). I consider that the silver lining of our crazy gas prices in Vancouver.

Good question. It's very dependent on how you drive and where you drive. I suggest you add to your data label to indicate what car is for which rate of fuel consumption as It would give more context to the person reading the graph. To me, 9.4L/100km is easily achievable with a Civic with mostly city driving.

lol. My alternative is 15L/100km 2.1L 4 cyl VW vanagon westfalia. Sometimes wonder if it uses gasoline as a coolant.

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

My leaf sold on Craigslist last night within 7 hours of posting it. For $500 less than I paid for it 2.5 years and 25,000km ago!! I think people are finally realizing an EV is a practical solution. (Even a shorter range leaf). I consider that the silver lining of our crazy gas prices in Vancouver.

lol. My alternative is 15L/100km 2.1L 4 cyl VW vanagon westfalia. Sometimes wonder if it uses gasoline as a coolant.

It is a no brainer if my last car was 15L/100km

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

Good question. It's very dependent on how you drive and where you drive. I suggest you add to your data label to indicate what car is for which rate of fuel consumption as It would give more context to the person reading the graph. To me, 9.4L/100km is easily achievable with a Civic with mostly city driving.

ICEV = generic for me to plug in at leisure. I achieve 8L/100km in the civic with 70/30 highway/city driving habits around the GTA. Great car, but the ICE is at it's efficiency limits (if you can even call it that) compared to any electric: it's a heavy polluter.