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Can I make it ~150miles daily w/o stopping to charge? LRAWD?

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Interesting. I guess it's a YMMV situation (as always!) because as I said with my ICE I'm consistently inline with MPG ratings. Either way, can't wait to get rid of it and into my M3! :D Thanks for the discussion and educating me on the math. Much appreciated.

FWIW my lifetime average is 280Wh/mi. With 18” I would likely be closer to 260Wh/mi. If you are doing California freeway speeds with minimal traffic (70-80mph) you’re going to be at over 260Wh/mi with no heat use. Which means 250 miles max. No amount of fiddling with the AC will help this.

You can plug along at 60-65mph and you’ll do awesome, but that’s usually pretty unsafe. It makes a huge difference, as does traffic (due to drafting effects), rain, wind, etc.
 
FWIW my lifetime average is 280Wh/mi. With 18” I would likely be closer to 260Wh/mi. If you are doing California freeway speeds with minimal traffic (70-80mph) you’re going to be at over 260Wh/mi with no heat use. Which means 250 miles max. No amount of fiddling with the AC will help this.

You can plug along at 60-65mph and you’ll do awesome, but that’s usually pretty unsafe. It makes a huge difference, as does traffic (due to drafting effects), rain, wind, etc.

All this is super interesting and informative. Thanks! For what it's worth, the majority of my drive is going to be closer to the 60-65mph range rather than 70-80mph as I travel via highway (with cross traffic, lots of big rigs, occasional stop lights, lots of CHP speed traps) as opposed to freeways. So I'll likely fare better than maybe the average SoCal freeway driver but only time will tell. Thanks again for all the information and entertaining what must be the 10,000th post covering this topic.
 
Another data point for you:

I have a LR AWD with 18” wheels and live in the SF Bay Area. Lifetime average over about 15k miles is 260 Wh/mile. Typical mix of freeway driving (I like to set the cruise at 72) and stop and go.

Warning: the power is addictive!
 
Hello TMC!~

First post here. I apologize if this has been asked but I've searched and haven't found anything specific enough to address my worries/concerns. I commute ~150 miles (total/round trip) approx. 3 days a week for work. No traffic/highway miles and speed (e.g. 70mph-ish). I live in SoCal so I don't believe whether is much of a concern. I'll be home charging (in a garage). Can I make this commute without needing to stop to charge? Can I keep sentry mode enabled while at work? From what I've read, I'm hoping I can make this commute charging to 85% and get home around 15%. Does this seem right?

Thanks in advance!
90% for best balancing.
 
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All this is super interesting and informative. Thanks! For what it's worth, the majority of my drive is going to be closer to the 60-65mph range rather than 70-80mph as I travel via highway (with cross traffic, lots of big rigs, occasional stop lights, lots of CHP speed traps) as opposed to freeways. So I'll likely fare better than maybe the average SoCal freeway driver but only time will tell. Thanks again for all the information and entertaining what must be the 10,000th post covering this topic.
In your climate and with your driving pattern, I’d be surprised if you had any issue whatsoever with a 150mi commute. The climate is a lot colder where I live (-4ºC to 9ºC at the moment), and I would have no qualms about it in my Performance model. It is amazing to watch the efficiency of the car improve on the Energy app and trip meter as battery warms up in the morning.

The only issue I find is when you decide to stay overnight away from home after a similar length trip. Then you need to plan for a charge to be ready to go again the following morning. That’s the only downside to the Tesla I’ve noticed compared to an ICE car. This wouldn’t be an issue with an ICE car due to the prevalence of petrol stations and the refuelling time. That said, if the car is parked up charging overnight, you never get caught needing to splash and dash on the way to work.

If you haven’t already watched them, you might find Bjørn Nyland’s videos interesting and reassuring viewing. He provides lots of stats on his road trips in very harsh climates.
 
I've done a 174.5 mile trip in my LR AWD from 77%->6% last week, in a headwind, average temp 5.8 deg C, with some heavy rain. I did have to keep the speed down. Charge to 85% or so and you should be good, just don't go crazy with heat or speed.
 
Yes you can make it without worry.
Charge to 90% if you need to.

Would rather go from 90-20 than 85 - 15 for example.
If you find you can stay above 20 on the return, charge to 85

You will get a feel for what effect the conditions have, but no matter how bad in CA you will have enough range for your commute to not stop.
I drive slightly less each day but am in MA so weather conditions are far worse and have the same car so answering this with confidence and experience.
 
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I'm in SoCal also, 120 mile round trip for me, 4 days a week. My lifetime Wh/mi is 233 @ 10,700 miles. I consistently use 40% of my battery each day, including 8 hours of sentry mode. My highest consumption day was shortly after Xmas where I got to drive 80 MPH most of the drive to/from with the heat on. I used 46% that day. My lowest consumption day was 37% (slow fwy, no heat or A/C needed)

My numbers are probably a bit better than most due to the fact that I hit heavy traffic on the I15 for close to 50% of my 120 mile drive, which slows me down quite a bit and I end up averaging ~35-40MPH for the whole trip.