Can someone explain ICE vs EV TCO/TOC

[Dpc131]

okay, I’m a little confused or unsure why everyone touts TOCs of EVs versus ICE. I just read tons of comments on the base Model 3 and how it is such a game changer for non-EV drivers because of ownership costs. Is it just fuel that makes the largest difference?

To put it in perspective I have a Model S, a C-Max PHEV and an F-150. So I’ve got all of the bases covered. I don’t see a large change in TOC between them other than fuel. For fuel, I’ve calculated for my PHEV that about $2.05/gal of gas was the break even for my $0.14/kWh of electricity. So while there is a savings there it is not a magnitude of significance. Maybe compared to my truck, but those are different vehicle classes.

I also hear about maintenance costs. My F-150 has 106,000 miles and my only recurring maintenance on that is an oil change ever 10,000 miles or so (now most cars have algorithms to predict oil changes beyond just a mileage number.) everything else is required on both types of vehicles (rotations, alignments, tires, etc.) I’ve never had any normal engine or ICE specific maintenance on either of them.

So while I completely LOVE my model S I just don’t understand the huge difference in touting the ownership costs.

 

[am_dmd]

You are correct, any savings that Tesla touts about versus ICE is just a bluff. Also don't forget any potential gas savings you will make will be wiped out if you ever get into an accident (hope none of us will ever have to go through body shop horrors).

 

[tpoltron]

For me its primarily been fuel and maintenance savings. Tesla service visits are not cheap but definitely less frequent and necessary than on ICE vehicles. I could't get out of the Audi dealership for less than $600 even when its the minimal 'oil change' service. There's a lot more wear parts when harnessing explosions with reciprocating parts that you forgot about: air filters, timing belts, spark plugs, tranny fluid, fuel pumps and filters etc. Sure tires, suspension and steering are pretty much the same though for most people the brakes last a lot longer on an EV since its mostly regenerative. Beside one set of tires I spent $0 on a Fiat 500e electric in 4 years (now replaced with a Model 3 that's been perfect so far). So far on our Model S its only been a set of tires and a door handle I fixed myself since the body warranty expired a year ago. Beyond the cash cost its been nice to not have to waste 1/2 a day visiting a dealership so often.

 

[Evbwcaer]

Part of the equation that is, as far as I know, nearly never included in calculated TCO, is externalized costs. These costs have and/or will come full-circle and be experienced by all of us. The link suggests about 2 cents per kWh and 55 cents per gallon of gas. Say that 10 kWh and 1 gallon of gas each yield about 30 miles of driving, you've got 20 cents vs 55 cents. I suspect with each next ton of carbon in the air the 55 goes up and with each incremental cleaning of the grid the 20 cents goes down.

I can't speak to the integrity of the link or the methodology of their analysis. However, we know there are significant externalized costs and we should not pretend there are not and make knowingly deficient calculations. If everybody is externalizing costs on everyone else, they become internalized.

Seeking Consensus on the Externalized Costs of Gas | Energy Central

 

[realvvk]

Before getting my MS I was spending $400-500 per month in fuel on the car it replaced. Now I spend about $60/month in the summer and $100/month in the winter. So between 1/7 and 1/5 of the monthly fuel cost.

Before people start saying "but vs a Prius" -- let me just qualify that I am not willing to drive a non-performance car. I like driving and drive a LOT. I cannot compare against a Prius or a Camry Hybrid. I want an equivalent car -- same size, same comfort, same 0-60 time, same throttle response. RWD chassis is an absolute must.

Beyond TOC, there are things like convenience of never having to waste time going to a gas station and, most importantly, the Autopilot.

 

[Dpc131]

Yeah, I am definitely sold on this car with regards of joy of owning it. I actually find myself feeling like I’m driving two separate cars depending on what I need at the time. Using AP on my work commute with the kids in the back driving 5 mph over the speed limit just relaxing compared to me by myself with insane mode turned on and hitting the headrest every time I stomp the accelerator.

In my truck, I almost laugh now when I try and do the same thing. Good point.

I was just confused whether I was missing something with ownership costs. As Tpolton explains, that is one thing I didn’t compare about the cost of non-scheduled maintenance. More moving parts equal more service.

 

[Dpc131]

Part of the equation that is, as far as I know, nearly never included in calculated TCO, is externalized costs.

Another good point, not part of “ownership” but at a macro level a strategic view of driving down costs.

 

[Evbwcaer]

Another good point, not part of “ownership” but at a macro level a strategic view of driving down costs.

Dpc, I really appreciate your quotation, but I do need to point something out. What I am saying is not a "strategic view." What I am saying is I feel compelled to be realistic and truthful, and that should just be considered neutral, not really worth a mention. Right?

It is by NOT including these costs that others are being "in complete denial."

I make this argument to people and they seem to consider what I am saying as a novel way of thinking. Why would you leave a cost out of a cost calculation? Sure, it is hard to calculate, but people don't even give it one cent in the calculation. WHO says 9,000,000 globally die annually because of air pollution....that has got to be worth at least 1 cent.

End of rant.

 

[Dpc131]

I apologize, I misunderstood the basis of your initial posting. Not necessarily a novel way of thinking IMHO, but probably something many people (including myself) have neglected to consider. Thanks for explaining.

 

[Don85D]

Our Model S combined with a solar array on the house allows us to run the car on sunshine. The panels will last for 30 years as will the car which makes fuel savings a big number. We also like performance cars suitable for long distance touring so in 2015 there was only one logical choice and it helps the environment. TCO is a factor but running the car free on sunshine just makes us feel good.

 

[kirkbauer]

Theoretically your Ford should have much higher maintenance costs than your Tesla especially as the cars age. If all you have done on your truck is oil changes then you are getting off lucky or are possibly skipping recommended maintenance.

Most of the time for an ICE in the first 100k or so you’ll need new brakes and will need to flush and replace fluids like transmission fluid and coolant. Theoretically none of these will need to be touched in a Tesla.

Also, as the previous owner of an old Toyota pickup with over 250k miles, the starter and the alternator each had to be replaced twice. Teslas have neither of those.

For me though I have my P85D for the acceleration. Then I learned to love many other things about it. In GA I have to pay $250/yr EV tax which pretty much wipes out my gas savings given that I don’t drive much. Also my spending on tires probably wipes out any maintenance savings

 

[Knightowl]

ok here is my own back of the napkin forecasted savings with my EV's - I plan to run them 20yrs before replacement.

gas savings with electric cars:
15k miles/yr $3/gallon of gas

compare against avg 30mi/gallon on gas =500 gallons/yr saved =$1500/yr in gas savings =$30k saved over 20yrs in just fuel

I feel this estimate is conservative as the price of fuel will likely go up over the next 20yrs

I have solar power so my energy is free

maintance 'should' be lower cost but will assume no savings there until it is proven longer term.

I have a whole different breakdown on solar cost vs utility and the long term savings on that also

 

[jerry33]

I don't really like cost comparisons either because of the implied "It's a worse experience but I'm saving money" while in fact the driving experience is much better, as is the not having to go to a gas station. FWIW, the lifetime average electric cost over 121K miles is four miles for a dime (assumes all charging done at home, doesn't include free Supercharging).

 

[Evbwcaer]

I apologize, I misunderstood the basis of your initial posting. Not necessarily a novel way of thinking IMHO, but probably something many people (including myself) have neglected to consider. Thanks for explaining.

No problem at all Dpc, I am admittedly biased on this, for sure. I'm happy to know that you are fairly considering what I have expressed.

 

[exLeaf]

"Tesla to drop fuel savings ad for Model 3: German industry association"

Tesla to drop fuel savings ad for Model 3: German industry association

 

[bob_p]

Before purchasing our first S P85 in early 2013, I did a lifetime cost projection on purchasing the S P85 for around $105K, several luxury ICEs in the $75-$100K range, and also the actual costs of owning the LS 460 I was trading in (that had 100K miles).

At that time, the analysis indicated we would pay more up front with the S P85 due to the higher purchase price and pre-payment of the extra 4 year/50K mile warranty and 8 years/100K pre-paid maintenance (Tesla now only offers 4 year/50K mile pre-paid maintenance).

Assuming we kept our S P85 for nearly 100K miles (which we did when we traded it in last summer for an X 100D), the total lifetime cost of the S P85 came out about even, compared to the previous LS and the luxury ICEs we were considering. And while I haven't run the numbers of our actual ownership cost of the S P85, since we didn't have any major expenses, other than the expected tire replacements, it's likely the result matched our expectations.

When Tesla introduced AP 2 in late 2016, they increased S/X pricing by $10K, putting the price of a fully configured non-performance S/X around $115K, which included EAP/FSD activation at delivery. At that price point, it's likely the Tesla lifetime cost of ownership would be higher than other vehicles - due to purchasing the AP features - which would be provided after deliver (or if ever, in the case of FSD).

With last week's price drop, Tesla has brought the fully configured non-performance price down to around $100K for S/X, and likely is back to providing a comparable lifetime cost to luxury ICEs.

Haven't run the numbers on a Model 3 purchase, though I expect the results to be similar, when compared to similar ICE vehicles (not trucks or SUVs) in the $30-50K price range.

What's difficult to compare is the value of the AP functionality. With the new AutoPilot level, Tesla is essentially providing what the other manufacturers have in their vehicles today. But for the FSD activation, that's functionality the other vehicles do not have - and would likely never deliver for current vehicles. So including the FSD activation cost may not be reasonable in a lifetime cost analysis...

 

[tpoltron]

Here's an interesting article on EV maintenance savings:
NYC reveals massive maintenance savings from electric cars in its fleet

The highlight:
The three all-electric cars — the Chevy Bolt, the Ford Focus Electric, and Nissan Leaf — were lowest in annual maintenance costs, ranging from $204 with the Bolt to $386 with the Focus Electric .... and gas vehicles like the Ford Fusion and Focus checked in with a maintenance cost average of $1,621 and $1,805, respectively.